김경수, 허윤수, 서옥순, 최효비, 이우평, 이진숙, 최청락

부산의 청년인구 순유출 문제는 지역 내의 대응차원을 넘어 수도권으로의 청년인구 순유입에 따른 결과로서 일자리, 교육 등 시역 내 도시 전 분야에 걸쳐 영향을 미침
근본적인 인구문제에 대한 정부정책의 대전환을 위한 지역 일자리 창출과 국가 어젠다로서의 공감대 형성을 위한 지역차원의 정책적 함의를 도출하고자 함

제1장 서론
제2장 부산 청년인구 현황
제3장 부산 산업별 일자리 특성
제4장 부산 청년인구 정책 방향
제5장 부산 청년인구 유지를 위한 정책 대안
제6장 결론

<표 2-1> 부산 청년 연령계층별 주요 이동 권역(2016-2020) ····································17

<표 2-2> 부산 청년 연령계층별 이동 지역(2016-2020) ·············································17

<표 2-3> 부산 청년 성별 주요 이동 권역(2016-2020) ···············································18

<표 2-4> 부산 청년 성별 이동 지역(2016-2020) ·······················································18

<표 2-5> 부산 청년 연령계층별 순이동 사유(2016-2020) ··········································19

<표 2-6> 부산 청년 성별 순이동 사유(2016-2020) ····················································20

<표 2-7> 부산 청년 이동 사유별 주요 이동 권역(2016-2020) ···································21

<표 2-8> 부산 청년 이동 사유별 이동 지역(2016-2020) ···········································21

<표 2-9> 부산 소재 대학 졸업자 이동 지역(2010-2018) ···········································23

<표 3-1> 부산지역 전출입 원인별 인구 순이동(2018-2020) ······································24

<표 3-2> 부산의 산업별 사업체 및 일자리 비중(2019) ···············································26

<표 3-3> 부산 GRDP 구조 ··························································································27

<표 3-4> 동남권의 권역별 중간재 조달 비중(2013년 기준) ·········································28

<표 3-5> 동남권 생산재화의 권역별 배분 비중(2013년 기준) ·····································28

<표 3-6> 일자리 관점의 산업분석 지표 ········································································29

<표 3-7> 성장률-점유율 매트릭스의 유형 분류와 전략 특성 ·······································31

<표 3-8> 부산 산업별 일자리 정책 목표 관련 변수 및 성장성-점유율 매트릭스 관련 변수들 ··32

<표 3-9> 산업별 청년 일자리 특성(2020) ····································································40

<표 3-10> 산업별 청년 일자리 특성 (산업 수: 18개) ··················································41

<표 3-11> 일자리 정책 관점에서 주목도 높은 부산 산업 ············································47

<표 3-12> 실태조사 대상 기업의 평균 매출액과 청년의 고용특성 ·······························48

<표 3-13> 신규채용인력(호봉 0년차)의 월 임금(실수령 기준) 구간별 비중 ·················50

<표 3-14> 고용 관련 질적 특성에 대한 5점 리커트 척도 평균 (최솟값: -2, 최댓값: 2) ··51

<표 3-15> 청년층의 신규 입사 이후 3년 이내 퇴직 비율 ···········································52

<표 3-16> 향후 중요해질 것으로 판단되는 인력 ··························································52

<표 3-17> 청년인력 채용 활성화를 위한 기업의 과제 ·················································53

<표 3-18> 청년인력 채용 활성화를 위한 부산시의 과제 ··············································53

<표 3-19> 청년인력이 지역기업에 취업하기 위해 해야 할 사항 ··································54

<표 4-1> 정부 인구정책 방향성 주요 고려사항 ····························································59

<표 4-2> 수도권·비수도권 주요 이슈 ············································································60

<표 4-3> 지역소멸 대응 국가균형발전 특별법 시행령 개정 주요 내용 ························60

<표 4-4> 청년인구 비중 추이 ·······················································································61

<표 5-1> 국토 공간계획 관련 법 ··················································································69

<표 5-2> 지역별 대학 현황 ···························································································72

<표 5-3> 혁신도시 및 이전공공기관 개요 ·····································································74

<표 5-4> 2020년도 이전 공공기관별 지역인재 채용실적 ·············································75

<표 5-5> 양성평등위원회 구성 ······················································································77

<표 5-6> 청년정책조정위원회 구성 ···············································································78

<표 5-7> 전국 청소년수련시설 설치 현황 ···································································80

<표 5-8> 부산 장기 성장기여도 분석 ···········································································82

<표 6-1> 부산 청년인구 유지를 위한 주요 정책 ························································106

<그림 2-1> 전국 및 동남권 인구 추이 ············································································4

<그림 2-2> 전국 인구 현황 ·····························································································5

<그림 2-3> 동남권 인구 추이 ··························································································5

<그림 2-4> 동남권 인구 현황 ··························································································6

<그림 2-5> 전국 인구 및 청년 인구 변화율(2011-2020) ·············································8

<그림 2-6> 전국 자연적 인구변화 추이 ··········································································9

<그림 2-7> 동남권 자연적 인구변화 추이 ·····································································10

<그림 2-8> 전국 인구 순이동 추이 ···············································································10

<그림 2-9> 동남권 전입인구 및 전출인구 추이(2000-2020) ······································11

<그림 2-10> 부산 전입인구 및 전출인구 추이(2000-2020) ········································11

<그림 2-11> 동남권 인구 지역별 순이동 현황(2000-2020 연평균) ····························12

<그림 2-12> 부산 인구 지역별 순이동 현황(2000-2020 연평균) ·······························12

<그림 2-13> 부산 청년인구 연령계층별 순이동(2001-2020) ····································13

<그림 2-14> 부산 청년인구 성별 순이동(2001-2020) ··············································14

<그림 2-15> 부산 청년인구 수도권 순이동(2001-2020) ···········································14

<그림 2-16> 부산 청년인구 동남권 순이동(2001-2020) ···········································15

<그림 2-17> 부산 청년인구 대경권 순이동(2001-2020) ···········································16

<그림 2-18> 부산 청년 순이동 사유(2016-2020) ·····················································19

<그림 2-19> 부산 소재 대학 졸업자 지역 체류 비중(2010-2018) ·····························22

<그림 2-20> 부산 소재 대학 졸업자 이동 권역 비중(2010-2018) ·····························22

<그림 3-1> 산업의 일자리 특성 분석 방법론 ······························································29

<그림 3-2> 일자리의 양(취업유발계수)과 일자리의 질(월평균 임금)에 따른 산업 분포 ····35

<그림 3-3> 고용 관점의 성장성-점유율 매트릭스 ·························································37

<그림 3-4> 고용 관점의 성장성-점유율 매트릭스 (일부 산업 제외) ····························38

<그림 3-5> 부산의 지역별 기업 분포 ···········································································41

<그림 3-6> 서부산 지역의 산업 구성 ···········································································42

<그림 3-7> 기장(동부산) 지역의 산업 구성 ································································43

<그림 3-8> 남구/수영/해운대(동부산) 지역의 산업 구성 ··············································43

<그림 3-9> 동구/중구/서구/영도(중부산) 지역의 산업 구성 ·········································44

<그림 3-10> 금정/동래/연제/부산진(중부산) 지역의 산업 구성 ····································45

<그림 3-11> 실태조사 대상 기업 매출액(2020)의 히스토그램 ·····································49

<그림 4-1> 취업 남방한계선 ·······················································································58

<그림 4-2> 계층별 인구 비중 추이 ···············································································62

<그림 4-3> 지역 인구 문제의 악순환과 산업/혁신정책의 역할 ····································63

<그림 5-1> 수도권 정비구역 ·······················································································68

<그림 5-2> 수도권정비계획 추진과 인구증가 추이 ·······················································68

<그림 5-3> 공공기관 지방이전 현황 ·············································································73

<그림 5-4> 국내 M&S 시장현황 및 전망 ····································································86

<그림 5-5> 글로벌 대비 국내 M&S SW 시장의 성장률 ·············································86

<그림 5-6> 일자리 확대와 청년 유출 완화 선순환 ·······················································89