유정호

동북아 글로벌 가치사슬 재편을 분석하고 부산의 대응정책을 제시한 연구임.

한국과 중국·일본의 산업별 가치사슬 연계구조를 집중 분석함.

미중 갈등과 코로나19가 국제 생산·무역 분업체계에 미친 영향을 검토함.

한국과 부산의 산업별 전방·후방 참여도 및 GVC 활용도를 비교함.

한국 산업구조는 후방보다 전방산업 참여도가 높은 것으로 나타남.

부산은 일본과의 교역에서 GVC 참여도가 높게 나타남.

부산의 대중국·대일본 교역에서 후방 참여는 감소하고 전방 참여는 증가함.

코로나19와 미중 갈등을 시나리오화해 가치사슬 변화를 분석함.

메가 FTA 체결과 외국인 직접투자 유치 효과를 시뮬레이션함.

정책대응에 따른 부산의 GVC 확대 효과는 화학산업에서 가장 크게 나타남.

첨단산업 전환 투자와 글로벌 기업 유치로 공급망 내 역할을 강화할 필요 있음.

통상현황 모니터링과 산학연 연계 및 전문인력 풀 구축이 필요함.

iv

목차

제1장 서론 ·················································································································1

1. 연구 배경 및 필요성 ························································································1

2. 연구 목적 ·········································································································2

3. 연구 범위와 연구 방법 ·····················································································3

1) 연구범위 ······································································································3

2) 연구방법 ······································································································3

4. 연구의 차별성 ···································································································5

1) 선행연구 현황 ·····························································································5

2) 주요 선행연구와의 차별성 ··········································································6

제2장 국제통상환경의 변화 ························································································7

1. 글로벌 가치사슬 확대 배경 ··············································································7

2. 미-중 간 갈등과 디커플링 ·············································································10

3. 코로나19의 글로벌 가치사슬 영향 ·································································14

제3장 글로벌 가치사슬의 동향과 분석 ····································································16

1. 글로벌 가치사슬 분석방법론 ···········································································16

2. 부산지역 GVC 지수 산출 방법 ······································································22

3. 한국의 GVC 동향 ··························································································24

4. 부산의 GVC 동향 ··························································································29

제4장 글로벌 가치사슬의 재편 ················································································35

1. GTAP-VA 분석방법론 ···················································································35

2. 데이터베이스 및 시나리오 ··············································································40

3. 분석결과 ·········································································································44

제5장 결론 및 시사점 ······························································································50

참고문헌 ···················································································································55

v

표 목차

<표 1-1> 주요 선행연구 및 차별성 ·················································································6

<표 3-1> 한국의 주요 산업별 GVC 지표 (%) ······························································25

<표 3-2> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 GVC 지표 ·····························································26

<표 3-3> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 화학산업 GVC 지표 ·············································26

<표 3-4> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 기계산업 GVC 지표 ·············································27

<표 3-5> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 철강산업 GVC 지표 ·············································27

<표 3-6> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 섬의류산업 GVC 지표 ··········································28

<표 3-7> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 운송장비산업 GVC 지표 ·······································29

<표 3-8> 부산의 주요 산업별 GVC 지표 ·····································································30

<표 3-9> 부산 지역의 대중국 및 대일본 GVC 지표 ····················································31

<표 3-10> 부산의 대중국 및 대일본 화학산업 GVC 지표 ···········································32

<표 3-11> 부산의 대중국 및 대일본 기계산업 GVC 지표 ···········································32

<표 3-12> 부산의 대중국 및 대일본 철강산업 GVC 지표 ···········································33

<표 3-13> 부산의 대중국 및 대일본 섬의류산업 GVC 지표 ········································33

<표 3-14> 부산의 대중국 및 대일본 운송장비산업 GVC 지표 ····································34

<표 4-1> 부가가치분해 활성화 GEMPACK 코드 ·······················································39

<표 4-2> GTAP-VA 모형에 포함된 글로벌 가치사슬 지표 ·······································39

<표 4-3> 국가 및 산업 재분류 ····················································································40

<표 4-4> 선행연구 시나리오와 분석결과 ·······································································42

<표 4-5> Shock Variables의 GEMPACK 코드 ························································43

<표 4-6> 베이스라인 시나리오 ······················································································43

<표 4-7> 시뮬레이션 시나리오 ······················································································44

<표 4-8> 베이스라인 시나리오 분석결과 (%) ·······························································45

<표 4-9> 한국의 산업별 베이스라인 분석결과 (%) ······················································45

<표 4-10> 부산의 산업별 베이스라인(VS) 분석결과 (백만 달러) ·································46

<표 4-11> 부산의 산업별 대중국 및 대일본 베이스라인(VS) 분석결과 (백만 달러) ····47

<표 4-12> 한국의 산업별 시뮬레이션 분석결과 (%) ····················································48

<표 4-13> 부산의 산업별 시뮬레이션(VS) 분석결과 (백만 달러) ·································48

<표 4-14> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 산업별 시뮬레이션 분석결과 (%) ·······················49

<표 4-15> 부산의 산업별 대중국 및 대일본 시뮬레이션(VS) 분석결과 (백만 달러) ····49

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그림 목차

<그림 3-1> 총수출의 부가가치 분해 ···········································································19

<그림 3-2> 국내부가가치 수출의 분해 ········································································19

<그림 3-3> 외국부가가치와 이중계상 항목 수출의 분해 ·············································20

<그림 3-4> 국제투입산출표와 국내지역투입산출표의 연계 ············································23

<그림 4-1> GTAP 데이터를 활용한 IOT 산출 ···························································37

<그림 4-2> 한-중-일 베이스라인(VS) 분석결과 (%) ····················································46