제1장 연구의 개요 ····································································································· 1 1. 연구의 배경과 목적 ·························································································· 1 2. 연구의 범위와 방법 ·························································································· 2 3. 연구의 선행연구와 차별성 ················································································ 3 제2장 한중일간 수출입 구조와 경쟁력 변화 ······························································ 6 1. 한중일간 수출입 구조 변화와 특징 ·································································· 6 1) 한중일의 대세계 수출입 구조 변화 ···························································· 6 2) 한중일간 수출입 구조 변화 ······································································ 11 2. 한중일간 경쟁력 변화와 특징 ········································································· 17 1) 대칭적 현시비교우위지수(RSCA)로 본 경쟁력 변화 ································· 18 2) 무역특화지수(TSI)로 본 경쟁력 변화 ························································ 22 3. 소결 ················································································································ 31 제3장 한중일간 분업구조 변화와 특징 분석 ···························································· 32 1. 실증분석 개요 ································································································· 32 1) 실증분석 범위와 방법론 ············································································ 32 2) 실증분석 통계와 분류 ··············································································· 33 2. 후방연관효과로 본 한중일간 분업구조 ··························································· 34 1) 실증분석 모형 ··························································································· 34 2) 한국의 대중․대일 의존구조 변화와 특징 ··················································· 36 3) 중국의 대한․대일 의존구조 변화와 특징 ··················································· 39 4) 일본의 대한․대중 의존구조 변화와 특징 ··················································· 42 3. 생산파급효과로 본 한중일간 분업구조 ··························································· 45 1) 한중간 생산파급효과 변화와 특징 ···························································· 45 2) 한일간 생산파급효과 변화와 특징 ···························································· 47 3) 일중간 생산파급효과 변화와 특징 ···························································· 49 4. 소결 ················································································································ 50 제4장 한중일간 생산 및 무역 파급경로 분석 ·························································· 52 1. 피드백․스필오버 효과로 본 한중일간 분업구조 ··············································· 52 1) 실증분석 모형 ··························································································· 52 2) 한중일간 피드백효과 변화 ········································································ 58 3) 스필오버효과로 본 한중일간 분업구조 변화 ············································· 58 2. 스필오버 분해로 본 공급과 분배 사슬 변화 ·················································· 63 1) 한중일간 공급 및 분배 구조 변화와 특징 ················································ 63 2) 직․간접 스필오버로 본 파급경로 변화와 특징 ·········································· 68 3. 소결 ················································································································ 70 제5장 정책적 시사점과 부산의 대응전략 ································································· 75 1. 요약 및 정책적 시사점 ··················································································· 75 2. 3국간 분업구조 변화에 따른 대응방향 ·························································· 77 3. 부산시 주력산업의 대응전략 ··········································································· 80 1) 한중일간 지원체계의 활용 ········································································ 80 2) 부산시 소재부품장비산업의 경쟁력 강화 전략 ·········································· 85 참고문헌 ··················································································································· 88

<표 2-1> 한중일의 대세계 수출입 규모 변화 ·································································· 7 <표 2-2> 한국의 산업별 대세계 수출입 구조 변화 ························································· 9 <표 2-3> 중국의 산업별 대세계 수출입 구조 변화 ······················································· 10 <표 2-4> 일본의 산업별 대세계 수출입 구조 변화 ······················································· 11 <표 2-5> 한국의 대중국 수출입 구조 변화 ··································································· 12 <표 2-6> 한국의 대일본 수출입 구조 변화 ··································································· 14 <표 2-7> 일본의 대중국 수출입 구조 변화 ··································································· 16 <표 2-8> 한국의 대세계 수출경쟁력(RSCA) 변화 ························································ 20 <표 2-9> 중국의 대세계 수출경쟁력(RSCA) 변화 ························································ 21 <표 2-10> 일본의 대세계 수출경쟁력(RSCA) 변화 ······················································ 22 <표 2-11> 한국의 대세계 경쟁력(TSI) 변화 ································································· 24 <표 2-12> 중국의 대세계 경쟁력(TSI) 변화 ································································· 25 <표 2-13> 일본의 대세계 경쟁력(TSI) 변화 ································································· 26 <표 2-14> 한국의 대중국 경쟁력(TSI) 변화 ································································· 27 <표 2-15> 한국의 대일본 경쟁력(TSI) 변화 ································································· 28 <표 2-16> 일본의 대중국 경쟁력(TSI) 변화 ································································· 30 <표 3-1> 한중일 17개 산업 분류표 ·············································································· 34 <표 3-2> 한국의 대중․대일 후방연관효과 변화 ····························································· 37 <표 3-3> 중국의 대한․대일 후방연관효과 변화 ····························································· 40 <표 3-4> 일본의 대한․대중 후방연관효과 변화 ····························································· 43 <표 3-5> 한중간 상대국에 대한 생산파급효과 변화 ····················································· 46 <표 3-6> 한일간 상대국에 대한 생산파급효과 변화 ····················································· 48 <표 3-7> 일중간 상대국에 대한 생산파급효과 변화 ····················································· 49 <표 4-1> 한국의 산업별 스필오버효과 변화 ································································· 59 <표 4-2> 중국의 산업별 스필오버효과 변화 ································································· 61 <표 4-3> 일본의 산업별 스필오버효과 변화 ································································· 62 <표 4-4> 한국의 대중․대일 스필오버효과 변화 ····························································· 64 <표 4-5> 중국의 대한․대일 스필오버효과 변화 ····························································· 66 <표 4-6> 일본의 대한․대중 스필오버효과 변화 ····························································· 67 <표 4-7> 한국의 대중․대일 파급경로 변화와 특징 ························································ 72 <표 4-8> 중국의 대한․대일 파급경로 변화와 특징 ························································ 73 <표 4-9> 일본의 대한․대중 파급경로 변화와 특징 ························································ 74 <표 5-1> 한중일 소재부품장비산업의 지원체계 비교 ······································ 84

<그림 2-1> 한중일의 대세계 무역수지 변화 ···································································· 8 <그림 2-2> 한국의 산업별 대중국 수출입 변화 ···························································· 13 <그림 2-3> 한국의 산업별 대일본 수출입 변화 ···························································· 15 <그림 2-4> 일본의 산업별 대중국 수출입 변화 ···························································· 17 <그림 2-5> 한중일의 대세계 수출경쟁력(RSCA) 변화 ·················································· 18 <그림 2-6> 주요 산업별 한중일의 대세계 수출경쟁력(RSCA) 변화 ····························· 19 <그림 2-7> 한중일의 대세계 경쟁력(TSI) 변화 ····························································· 23 <그림 2-8> 주요 산업별 한중일의 대세계 경쟁력(TSI) 변화 ········································ 23 <그림 2-9> 한국의 산업별 대중국 경쟁력(TSI) 변화 ···················································· 27 <그림 2-10> 한국의 산업별 대일본 경쟁력(TSI) 변화 ·················································· 29 <그림 2-11> 일본의 산업별 대중국 경쟁력(TSI) 변화 ·················································· 30 <그림 3-1> 한국의 산업별 대중․대일 후방연관효과 변화 ·············································· 38 <그림 3-2> 한국의 산업별 자국내 피드백효과 변화 ····················································· 39 <그림 3-3> 한국의 산업별 대중․대일 의존관계 변화 ····················································· 39 <그림 3-4> 중국의 산업별 대한․대일 후방연관효과 변화 ·············································· 41 <그림 3-5> 중국의 산업별 자국내 피드백효과 변화 ····················································· 42 <그림 3-6> 중국의 산업별 대한․대일 의존관계 변화 ····················································· 42 <그림 3-7> 일본의 산업별 대한․대중 후방연관효과 변화 ·············································· 44 <그림 3-8> 일본의 산업별 자국내 피드백효과 변화 ····················································· 44 <그림 3-9> 일본의 산업별 대한․대중일 의존관계 변화 ················································· 45 <그림 3-10> 한중간 산업별 상대국에 대한 생산파급효과 변화 ···································· 47 <그림 3-11> 한일간 산업별 상대국에 대한 생산파급효과 변화 ···································· 48 <그림 3-12> 일중간 산업별 상대국에 대한 생산파급효과 변화 ···································· 50 <그림 4-1> 한국의 산업별 국내파급효과 변화 ······························································ 60 <그림 4-2> 중국의 산업별 국내파급효과 변화 ······························································ 61 <그림 4-3> 일본의 산업별 국내파급효과 변화 ······························································ 63 <그림 4-4> 한국의 산업별 대중․대일 스필오버효과 변화 ·············································· 65 <그림 4-5> 중국의 산업별 대중․대일 스필오버효과 변화 ·············································· 66 <그림 4-6> 일본의 산업별 대한․대중 스필오버효과 변화 ·············································· 68