제1장 연구의 필요성과 목적 ······················································································ 1 1. 연구의 배경 및 필요성 ····················································································· 1 2. 선행연구 검토 및 차별성 ················································································· 3 3. 연구 범위 및 목적 ··························································································· 6 제2장 경제회복력 개념과 외부충격 분석방법 ····························································· 8 1. 경제회복력의 개념 ···························································································· 8 1) 생태학 및 방재 관련 회복력 이론 ······························································ 9 2) 경제적 측면의 지역 회복력 관련 이론 ····················································· 11 2. 외부 충격 분석 방법 ······················································································ 15 1) 외부충격 파급구조와 분석방법 ·································································· 15 2) 기존 지역경제 회복력 측정 방법의 한계 ·················································· 17 제3장 충격분석을 위한 부산지역 모형 정립 ···························································· 23 1. 지역산업연관표 작성 방법과 구조 ·································································· 25 2. 사회회계계정(SAM) 기본 내용 ······································································· 27 1) 사회회계행렬(SAM)의 개요 및 구조 ························································ 27 2) 지역산업연관표 및 사회회계계정(SAM) 조정방법 ···································· 31 3. 연산일반균형(CGE) 기본 개념 ······································································· 34 4. 연산일반균형(CGE) 기본 구조 ······································································· 36 1) 생산활동부문 ····························································································· 39 2) 재화부문 ···································································································· 46 3) 가계의 소비행태 ························································································ 51 4) 정부부문 ···································································································· 55 5) 대외부문 ···································································································· 57 6) 자본시장부문 ····························································································· 62 7) 후생변화 ···································································································· 64 8) 시장균형조건(market clearing condition) ·············································· 65 9) 부산지역 CGE모형 형태 및 모형 보정 방법 ············································ 67 제4장 외부충격의 유형별 부산지역 경제에 대한 영향 비교 ···································· 73 1. 경제충격 분석 시나리오 ················································································· 73 2. 정책시뮬레이션 결과 및 해석 ········································································· 76 1) 시나리오별 충격 전후 거시지표 비교 ······················································· 77 2) 시나리오별 충격 전후 세부업종 비교 ······················································· 82 3. 장기 동태 분석(보론) ······················································································ 96 1) 장기 동태 분석 시나리오 ·········································································· 96 2) 장기 동태 분석 결과 ················································································ 97 3) 주요 업종별 장기동태 변화 ···································································· 110 제5장 부산지역경제 회복탄력성 제고방안 ······························································ 120 1. 지역경제 회복력 결정요인 ············································································ 120 2. 부산지역 경제 회복력 수준 ·········································································· 126 1) 지역경제 회복력 지표 순위 ···································································· 126 2) 부산지역 회복력 수준과 지역경제 ·························································· 128 3. 지역경제 회복력 제고를 위한 전략과 추진 과제 ········································· 138 1) 단기 전략과 과제 ··················································································· 138 2) 중장기 지역경제 회복력 제고 전략 ························································ 143 4. 요약 및 기대효과 ························································································· 158 Abstract ················································································································ 164 참고문헌 ················································································································· 173 부록 ························································································································ 183

<표 2-1> 세가지 측면의 회복력 ······················································································ 8 <표 2-2> 회복력의 프레임 워크 ···················································································· 10 <표 2-3> 위험요소와 회복력의 이론적 개념 ································································· 12 <표 2-4> 경제충격 분석 방법 ······················································································· 16 <표 2-5> 지역회복력의 내용과 예시 ············································································· 20 <표 3-1> 사회회계행렬 구조 ························································································· 30 <표 4-1> 외부충격 시나리오 ························································································· 74 <표 4-2> 외부충격 대응 지원정책 시나리오 ································································· 75 <표 4-3> 산업분류 ········································································································· 76 <표 4-4> 거시지표 증감 ································································································ 77 <표 4-5> 거시지표 증감률 ····························································································· 77 <표 4-6> 외부충격에 대한 시나리오별 증감률 결과 ····················································· 84 <표 4-7> 지원정책에 따른 시나리오별 증감률 결과(Ⅰ) ················································ 85 <표 4-8> 지원정책에 따른 시나리오별 증감률 결과(Ⅱ) ················································ 86 <표 4-9> 장기충격 시나리오 ························································································· 96 <표 4-10> 총생산 연차별 증가율 ·················································································· 98 <표 4-11> 총생산 벤치마크 대비 변화율 ······································································ 99 <표 4-12> 수출 연차별 증가율 ··················································································· 102 <표 4-13> 수출 벤치마크 대비 변화율 ······································································· 103 <표 4-14> 소비 연차별 증가율 ··················································································· 105 <표 4-15> 소비 벤치마크 대비 변화율 ······································································· 106 <표 4-16> 투자 연차별 증가율 ··················································································· 108 <표 4-17> 투자 벤치마크 대비 변화율 ······································································· 109 <표 5-1> 지역 회복력 지표 및 지수 개발 사례 ························································· 125 <표 5-2> 지역경제 회복력 지표 ·················································································· 127 <표 5-3> 1997년 외환위기, 2008년 금융위기 시기 경제회복력 ······························· 130 <표 5-4> 부산지역 경제성장률(5년간 연평균) ····························································· 134 <표 5-5> 부산지역 고용 비중(전국 대비 비중) ··························································· 135 <표 5-6> 부산지역 고용 비중(지역내 비중) ································································ 135 <표 5-7> 부산지역 부가가치 비중(전국 대비 비중) ···················································· 136 <표 5-8> 부산지역 부가가치 비중(지역내 비중) ·························································· 137 <표 5-9> 지역경제 회복력 진단 체크리스트 ······························································· 141 <표 5-10> 지역 회복력 제고를 위한 전략 ·································································· 145

<그림 2-1> 외부 충격에 따른 경제 파급 구조 ······························································ 17 <그림 2-2> 동태적 지역경제 회복력 ············································································· 18 <그림 2-3> 지역경제 회복력의 성장경로 ······································································· 18 <그림 2-4> 외부충격과 고용회복력(영국 동남권 경기침체 사례) ·································· 19 <그림 3-1> 연산일반균형(CGE)모형의 구조 ·································································· 36 <그림 4-1> 외부충격에 대한 주요 거시지표 증감 ························································· 80 <그림 4-2> 외부충격에 대한 주요 거시지표 증감률 ····················································· 80 <그림 4-3> 외부충격에 대한 시나리오별 동등변화, 보상변화 ······································· 80 <그림 4-4> 지원정책에 따른 주요 거시지표 증감(Ⅰ) ··················································· 81 <그림 4-5> 지원정책에 따른 주요 거시지표 증감(Ⅱ) ··················································· 81 <그림 4-6> 지원정책에 따른 주요 거시지표 증감률(Ⅰ) ················································ 81 <그림 4-7> 지원정책에 따른 주요 거시지표 증감률(Ⅱ) ················································ 82 <그림 4-8> 지원정책에 따른 시나리오별 동등변화, 보상변화 ······································· 82 <그림 4-9> SS1 고용 증감률 ······················································································· 87 <그림 4-10> SS1 소비 증감률 ····················································································· 87 <그림 4-11> SS1 수출 증감률 ····················································································· 87 <그림 4-12> SS2 고용 증감률 ····················································································· 88 <그림 4-13> SS2 소비 증감률 ····················································································· 88 <그림 4-14> SS2 수출 증감률 ····················································································· 88 <그림 4-15> SS3 고용 증감률 ····················································································· 89 <그림 4-16> SS3 소비 증감률 ····················································································· 89 <그림 4-17> SS3 수출 증감률 ····················································································· 89 <그림 4-18> SP1 고용 증감률 ····················································································· 90 <그림 4-19> SP1 소비 증감률 ····················································································· 90 <그림 4-20> SP1 수출 증감률 ····················································································· 90 <그림 4-21> SP2 고용 증감률 ····················································································· 91 <그림 4-22> SP2 소비 증감률 ····················································································· 91 <그림 4-23> SP2 수출 증감률 ····················································································· 91 <그림 4-24> SP3 고용 증감률 ····················································································· 92 <그림 4-25> SP3 소비 증감률 ····················································································· 92 <그림 4-26> SP3 수출 증감률 ····················································································· 92 <그림 4-27> SP4 고용 증감률 ····················································································· 93 <그림 4-28> SP4 소비 증감률 ····················································································· 93 <그림 4-29> SP4 수출 증감률 ····················································································· 93 <그림 4-30> SP5 고용 증감률 ····················································································· 94 <그림 4-31> SP5 소비 증감률 ····················································································· 94 <그림 4-32> SP5 수출 증감률 ····················································································· 94 <그림 4-33> SP6 고용 증감률 ····················································································· 95 <그림 4-34> SP6 소비 증감률 ····················································································· 95 <그림 4-35> SP6 수출 증감률 ····················································································· 95 <그림 4-36> 총생산 연차별 증가율 ············································································ 100 <그림 4-37> 총생산 벤치마크 대비 변화율 ································································ 100 <그림 4-38> 수출 연차별 증가율 ················································································ 104 <그림 4-39> 수출 벤치마크 대비 변화율 ···································································· 104 <그림 4-40> 소비 연차별 증가율 ················································································ 107 <그림 4-41> 소비 벤치마크 대비 변화율 ···································································· 107 <그림 4-42> 투자 연차별 증가율 ················································································ 110 <그림 4-43> 투자 벤치마크 대비 변화율 ···································································· 110 <그림 4-44> 주요업종 총생산 연차별 증가율(LS1) ···················································· 111 <그림 4-45> 주요업종 총생산 벤치마크 대비 변화율(LS1) ········································ 111 <그림 4-46> 주요업종 총생산 연차별 증가율(LS2) ···················································· 112 <그림 4-47> 주요업종 총생산 벤치마크 대비 변화율(LS2) ········································ 112 <그림 4-48> 주요업종 총생산 연차별 증가율(LS3) ···················································· 112 <그림 4-49> 주요업종 총생산 벤치마크 대비 변화율(LS3) ········································ 113 <그림 4-50> 주요업종 총생산 연차별 증가율(LS4) ···················································· 113 <그림 4-51> 주요업종 총생산 벤치마크 대비 변화율(LS4) ········································ 113 <그림 4-52> 주요업종 총생산 연차별 증가율(LS5) ···················································· 114 <그림 4-53> 주요업종 총생산 벤치마크 대비 변화율(LS5) ········································ 114 <그림 4-54> 주요업종 총생산 연차별 증가율(LS6) ···················································· 114 <그림 4-55> 주요업종 총생산 벤치마크 대비 변화율(LS6) ········································ 115 <그림 4-56> 주요업종 투자 연차별 증가율(LS1) ························································ 115 <그림 4-57> 주요업종 투자 벤치마크 대비 변화율(LS1) ············································ 115 <그림 4-58> 주요업종 투자 연차별 증가율(LS2) ························································ 116 <그림 4-59> 주요업종 투자 벤치마크 대비 변화율(LS2) ············································ 116 <그림 4-60> 주요업종 투자 연차별 증가율(LS3) ························································ 116 <그림 4-61> 주요업종 투자 벤치마크 대비 변화율(LS3) ············································ 117 <그림 4-62> 주요업종 투자 연차별 증가율(LS4) ························································ 117 <그림 4-63> 주요업종 투자 벤치마크 대비 변화율(LS4) ············································ 117 <그림 4-64> 주요업종 투자 연차별 증가율(LS5) ························································ 118 <그림 4-65> 주요업종 투자 벤치마크 대비 변화율(LS5) ············································ 118 <그림 4-66> 주요업종 투자 연차별 증가율(LS6) ························································ 118 <그림 4-67> 주요업종 투자 벤치마크 대비 변화율(LS6) ············································ 119 <그림 5-1> 지역경제 회복력 결정 요인 ······································································ 121 <그림 5-2> 1997년 외환위기 시기 경제회복력 ·························································· 131 <그림 5-3> 2008년 금융위기 시기 경제회복력 ·························································· 132 <그림 5-4> 부산지역 경제성장률 추이 ········································································ 133 <그림 5-5> 부산지역 고용 비중 추이(전국 대비 비중) ··············································· 134 <그림 5-6> 부산지역 부가가치 비중 추이(전국 대비 비중) ········································ 136