Ⅰ. 서론 Ⅱ. 천마산터널 민간투자사업의 주요 내용 1. 사업의 개요 ·························································································7 2. 사업의 추진 경과 ················································································8 Ⅲ. 자금 재조달 효과 분석 1. 자금재조달의 개요 ············································································13 1) 자금재조달의 목적 및 범위 ·····························································13 2) 자금재조달의 주요쟁점 및 검토방향 ·············································15 2. 자금재조달 공유이익의 산정 ···························································20 1) 자금재조달 이익공유 대상 여부 검토 ············································20 2) 자금재조달 공유이익의 산정 ···························································21 3. 공유이익의 사용방안 ········································································29 Ⅳ. 비용보전방식의 효과 분석 1. 민간투자사업의 비용보전방식의 개요 ···········································35 2. 비용보전방식의 효과 분석 ·······························································38 1) 기본 전제 ····························································································38 2) 비용보전방식의 효과 분석 결과 ·····················································39 3. 민감도 분석 ························································································41 1) 통행량 민감도 분석 ··········································································41 2) 요금 민감도 분석 ··············································································48 3) 통행량 및 요금 민감도 분석 ···························································53 Ⅴ. 자금재조달과 비용보전방식의 효과 비교 1. 자금재조달시 재정부담금 산정 ······················································63 2. 재정부담금의 비교 ···········································································68 Ⅵ. 정책제언 및 결론: 자금재조달 협상시 유의사항 ·······················73 Abstract 77 참고문헌 78

<표 Ⅱ-1> 사업의 개요 8 <표 Ⅲ-1> 출자자 및 지분율 변경 내역 14 <표 Ⅲ-2> 자본구조 변경내역 14 <표 Ⅲ-3> 차입금 조달조건(이자율) 변경 내역 15 <표 Ⅲ-4> 법인세율의 변경 내용 17 <표 Ⅲ-5> 자본구조 변경내역 및 검토안 18 <표 Ⅲ-6> 자금재조달 이익 공유의 대상 행위 20 <표 Ⅲ-7> 자금재조달 이익의 측정방법 22 <표 Ⅲ-8> 기본재무모델 작성결과: 법인세율 변경 반영(Case1,2 동일) 23 <표 Ⅲ-9> 가중평균자본비용(WACC)효과 산정 결과 : Case1 23 <표 Ⅲ-10> 기본재무모델 작성결과: Case1 24 <표 Ⅲ-11> 기본재무모델 작성결과: Case2 24 <표 Ⅲ-12> 예상 물가 상승률 24 <표 Ⅲ-13> 기준재무모델 산정 결과 : Case1 25 <표 Ⅲ-14> 기준재무모델 산정 결과 : Case2 25 <표 Ⅲ-15> 타인자본 조달 종류 26 <표 Ⅲ-16> 자금재조달 후순위차입금 조건 26 <표 Ⅲ-17> 자금재조달 선순위차입금 조건 27 <표 Ⅲ-18> 비교재무모델: Case1 28 <표 Ⅲ-19> 비교재무모델: Case2 28 <표 Ⅲ-20> 자금재조달 공유이익 산정 결과 : Case1 29 <표 Ⅲ-21> 자금재조달 공유이익 산정 결과 : Case2 29 <표 Ⅲ-22> 건설보조금 인하 : Case1 30 <표 Ⅲ-23> 건설보조금 인하 : Case2 30 <표 Ⅲ-24> 무상사용기간 단축 : Case1 30 <표 Ⅲ-25> 무상사용기간 단축 : Case2 30 <표 Ⅳ-1> 민자사업 추진방식별 주요 항목 비교 37 <표 Ⅳ-2> 재구조화 모델의 주요 가정 39 <표 Ⅳ-3> 비용보전방식으로 전환시 재정부담금 추이 40 <표 Ⅳ-4> 실시협약 통행량 100%일 경우의 추정 정부부담금 42 <표 Ⅳ-5> 실시협약 통행량 90%일 경우의 추정 정부부담금 43 <표 Ⅳ-6> 실시협약 통행량 80%일 경우의 추정 정부부담금 44 <표 Ⅳ-7> 실시협약 통행량 70%일 경우의 추정 정부부담금 45 <표 Ⅳ-8> 실시협약 통행량 60%일 경우의 추정 정부부담금 46 <표 Ⅳ-9> 실시협약 통행량 50%일 경우의 추정 정부부담금 47 <표 Ⅳ-10> 통행량 민감도분석 총괄표 48 <표 Ⅳ-11> 통행료를 매년 3% 인상하는 경우 추정 재정부담금 49 <표 Ⅳ-12> 통행료를 5년마다 10% 인상하는 경우 추정 재정부담금 50 <표 Ⅳ-13> 통행료를 10년마다 10% 인상하는 경우 추정 재정부담금 51 <표 Ⅳ-14> 통행료를 동결하는 경우 추정 재정부담금 52 <표 Ⅳ-15> 통행료 민감도분석 총괄표 53 <표 Ⅳ-16> 통행량 및 요금 민감도분석 시나리오 53 <표 Ⅳ-17> 시나리오 1-1의 추정 정부부담금 54 <표 Ⅳ-18> 시나리오 1-2의 추정 정부부담금 55 <표 Ⅳ-19> 시나리오 1-3의 추정 정부부담금 56 <표 Ⅳ-20> 시나리오 2-1의 추정 정부부담금 57 <표 Ⅳ-21> 시나리오 2-2의 추정 정부부담금 58 <표 Ⅳ-22> 시나리오 2-3의 추정 정부부담금 59 <표 Ⅳ-23> 통행량 및 요금 민감도분석 시나리오 분석 총괄표 60 <표 Ⅴ-1> 공유이익 산정결과 63 <표 Ⅴ-2> 자금재조달 이익공유후 요금 미인상에 따른 추정 재정부담금 65 <표 Ⅴ-3> 자금재조달 시행시 민감도분석 시나리오 66 <표 Ⅴ-4> 자금재조달 시행시 민감도분석 결과 67 <표 Ⅴ-5> 통행료 민감도에 따른 재정부담금 비교 69 <표 Ⅴ-6> 통행량 및 요금 민감도에 따른 재정부담금 비교 69

<그림 Ⅱ-1> 천마산터널 사업위치도 7