Ⅰ. 타당성 재조사 개요··················································································3 제1절 사업의 배경 및 추진경위···································································3 1. 사업의 배경 및 목적·············································································3 2. 사업 추진 경위 및 근거·······································································5 3. 사업의 내용····························································································6 4. 사업의 기대효과···················································································11 제2절 타당성 재조사의 개요·······································································11 1. 타당성 재조사 제도의 개요································································11 2. 타당성 재조사의 기본 방향································································13 3. 타당성 재조사의 수행·········································································14 1) 기초자료 분석 및 조사의 쟁점 도출·············································14 2) 사업계획의 적절성 검토·································································14 3) 경제성 분석 ····················································································14 4) 정책적 분석······················································································16 5) 종합평가 및 정책제언·····································································16 Ⅱ. 기초자료 분석 및 주요 쟁점·······························································19 제1절 입지여건 분석····················································································19 1. 자연환경································································································19 1) 지리적여건·························································································19 2) 기후····································································································19 3) 수계 및 해안····················································································20 2. 사회환경·······························································································20 1) 일반현황····························································································20 2) 인구····································································································21 3) 산업구조····························································································22 4) 생활환경····························································································24 5) 문화관광현황····················································································25 3. 문화관광환경························································································27 1) 관광자원····························································································28 2) 교육문화시설 현황···········································································30 3) 과학문화시설 현황···········································································31 4. 사업대상지역························································································32 1) 입지여건····························································································32 2) 교통분석····························································································32 3) 대지현황····························································································33 5. 지역발전 비전과 전략·········································································33 제2절 국내외 영화산업 현황······································································35 1. 국내 영화산업······················································································35 2. 전 세계 영화산업 현황 및 전망························································39 제3절 부산의 공연시설················································································41 Ⅲ. 비용 추정····································································································47 제1절 총 사업비 추정··················································································47 1. 총사업비 변경······················································································47 2. 총사업비 분석······················································································51 3. 총 사업비 변경 대안···········································································53 제2절 운영비 추정·······················································································60 1. 운영비 추정의 전제·············································································60 2. 운영비 추정····························································································62 1) 인건비 추정······················································································62 2) 경상적 경비 추정············································································64 3) 위탁 관리비 추정·············································································67 3. 운영비 추정의 결과················································································69 Ⅳ. 수요 및 편익 추정··················································································73 제1절 수요 및 재무적 수익 추정·······························································73 1. 부산국제영화제 비 기간 동안의 수요 및 재무적 기대 수익·········75 1) 다목적 공연장···················································································75 2) 야외 공연장······················································································79 3) 영화 상영관······················································································81 4) 컨벤션홀 운영 기대 수익·······························································86 5) 사무실, 부대시설, 주차장 등························································87 2. 부산국제영화제 기간 동안의 수요 및 재무적 기대 수익··············90 1) 임대료 및 설비 설치비 등 비용 절감···········································90 2) 영화제 기간 동안의 출품작 상영관 운영·····································91 제2절 편익 추정···························································································93 1. 조건부가치측정법(CVM) 특징····························································94 2. CVM을 이용한 편익 추정··································································96 Ⅴ. 파급효과 분석··························································································101 제1절 정성적 파급효과···············································································101 1. 영상문화 중심도시 부산····································································101 2. 부산영상센터의 위상·········································································102 3. 상징적 건축물의 필요성···································································105 4. 부산국제영화제의 발전·····································································106 5. 관광수익증대 및 도시브랜드 제고 효과········································109 제2절 경제적 파급효과··············································································112 1. 분석모형의 개요·················································································112 1) 기본구조···························································································112 2. 지역경제파급효과 분석을 위한 유발계수·······································115 1) 승수분석이론···················································································115 2) 승수의 해석 및 분석기법······························································118 3. 지역경제파급효과 분석결과·····························································122 1) 투입비 산출내역·············································································122 2) 지역별 파급효과 추정결과····························································123 Ⅵ. 경제성 및 재무성 분석········································································127 제1절 경제성 분석······················································································127 1. 기본 전제····························································································127 2. 분석 결과····························································································128 제2절 재무성 분석······················································································131 Ⅶ. 정책적 분석······························································································137 제1절 정책적 분석 체계·············································································137 제2절 지역균형발전····················································································138 1. 지역낙후도 분석·················································································139 1) 개요··································································································139 2) 지역낙후도 평가 결과···································································142 제3절 정책의 일관성 및 추진의지···························································143 1. 관련계획 및 정책방향과의 일치성··················································143 2. 사업추진의지 및 준비정도·······························································145 3. 국가적 필요성 및 지역적 필요성····················································146 제4절 사업추진상의 위험요인···································································148 1. 재원조달 가능성·················································································148 1) 소요재원과 분담 내역····································································148 2) 중앙정부의 재원조달 가능성························································149 3) 부산시의 재원조달 가능성····························································150 2. 환경성 평가························································································151 3. 조속한 사업추진 필요성···································································152 제5절 사업특수 평가항목··········································································152 1. 해당시설의 관광분야 파급효과························································152 2. 해당시설의 도시이미지 개선 파급효과··········································153 부록 ···············································································································157

<표 1-1> 총사업비 규모 조정 내역····································································8 <표 1-2> 설계변경에 따른 시설 면적 및 주요 시설 변경 내용····················9 <표 1-3> 세계 주요 영화제 전용관 활용 현황(영화제 기간 외)··················11 <표 2-1> 부산광역시 인구·················································································22 <표 2-2> 부산 산업구조(생산액 기준)····························································23 <표 2-3> 최근 5년간 주요 경제지표 추이······················································23 <표 2-4> 부산시 주택보급률············································································24 <표 2-5> 부산시 용도별 건축허가···································································24 <표 2-6> 지정 및 등록문화재 현황(2010년 5월 기준) ·······························25 <표 2-7> 부산시 문화기반시설 현황·······························································25 <표 2-8> 부산시 문화예술단체 현황 ·····························································26 <표 2-9> 2010년도 부산시 주요축제 현황 ···················································26 <표 2-10> 2010년 2월 외국인 관광객 현황···················································27 <표 2-11> 입국경로별 외국 방문객수 ····························································27 <표 2-12> 제4차 부산권관광개발계획의 4대 권역········································28 <표 2-13> 주요 관광자원··················································································28 <표 2-14> 해수욕장 현황··················································································29 <표 2-15> 공원·유원지 현황···········································································29 <표 2-16> 국적별 관광객 입국현황(2009년 12월 기준)·······························30 <표 2-17> 목적별 관광객 입국현황(2009년 12월 기준)·······························30 <표 2-18> 목적별 관광객 입국현황(2009년 12월 기준) ·····························30 <표 2-19> 학교 현황··························································································30 <표 2-20> 문화공간 현황··················································································31 <표 2-21> 과학문화시설 현황···········································································31 <표 2-22> 문화산업 매출액··············································································36 <표 2-23> 영화 산업 수출·입액 현황···························································37 <표 2-24> 전국 영화상영관 현황(2007. 12. 13 현재)·································38 <표 2-25> 부산시 영화산업 사업체수 및 종사자수 세부현황·····················39 <표 2-26> 부산시 영화산업 사업체수 및 종사자수 세부현황······················41 <표 2-27> 전국 공연장 현황 및 인구 10만명당 공연장 수·························43 <표 3-1> 부산영상센터 설계변경에 따른 건축개요·······································48 <표 3-2> 부산영상센터 설계변경에 따른 면적 증감 내역···························49 <표 3-3> 부산영상센터 건립사업 총사업비 집행 및 계획···························52 <표 3-4> 부산영상센터 설계변경에 따른 시네마운틴 구성·························55 <표 3-5> 부산영상센터 시설 면적 개요··························································56 <표 3-6> 부산영상센터 건립 대안의 공사비 추정·········································57 <표 3-7> 부산영상센터 건립 대안 공사비 추정 산출 근거·························58 <표 3-8> 부산영상센터 건립 대안 공사비 추정 산출 방법·························59 <표 3-9> 부산영상센터의 시설 규모 및 위탁운영 가능 여부·····················60 <표 3-10> 부산영상센터의 운영 방법 결정····················································61 <표 3-11> 부산영상센터 인건비 추정······························································63 <표 3-12> 유사 사례분석에 의한 관리인원 원단위 검토·····························64 <표 3-13> 부산영상센터 경상적 경비 중 일반운영비 ·································65 <표 3-14> 경상적 경비 중 여비 추정······························································67 <표 3-15> 유사 사례 위탁관리비(청소, 보안, 시설유지) 비교····················68 <표 3-16> 부산영상센터 연간 운영비 추정 결과···········································69 <표 4-1> 부산영상센터의 수요 분석 개요······················································73 <표 4-2> 부산영상센터의 공간적 활용 개요··················································74 <표 4-3> 인구1천명당 공연장 객석수 현황 ··················································75 <표 4-4> 설립 및 운영 주체별 공연프로그램 가동률···································77 <표 4-5> 전국 주요공연장 규모 및 대관료 수준···········································77 <표 4-6> 부산 MBC 롯데 아트홀 대관료·······················································78 <표 4-7> 부산영상센터 다목적 공연장 비 영화제 기간 재무적 기대수익·····79 <표 4-8> 주요 야외 공연장 대관료 현황························································80 <표 4-9> 부산영상센터 야외 공연장 비 영화제 기간 재무적 기대수익····80 <표 4-10> 2009년 전국 지역별 극장 관객수 및 매출··································81 <표 4-11> 연도별 영화관람객수 예측(영화진흥위원회)································82 <표 4-12> 지역별 극장, 스크린 및 좌석수 증가 ·········································83 <표 4-13> 연도별 평균 극장 요금···································································85 <표 4-14> 부산영상센터 영화상영관의 부산국제영화제 비 기간 동안의 재무적 기대 수익···85 <표 4-15> 부산영상센터 컨벤션홀 비 영화제 기간 재무적 기대 수익·······87 <표 4-16> 부산영상센터 피프홀 층별 구성····················································87 <표 4-17> 부산영상센터 주요 부대시설 구성················································88 <표 4-18> 부산영상센터 사무실, 부대시설, 주차장 연간 재무적 기대 수익·····90 <표 4-19> 부산영상센터 건립에 따른 절감 기대 비용·································91 <표 4-20> 2007~2009년 부산국제영화제 입장료 수입·······························92 <표 5-1> 부산시의 영화산업 클러스터 지수·················································104 <표 5-2> 국제영화제 및 아시아필름마켓의 전체 경제파급효과················108 <표 5-3> 경쟁이입형 MRIO 구조의 예시(2지역, 3산업) ··························113 <표 5-4> 동남경제권 산업연관표의 산업부문···············································114 <표 5-5> 투입비 산출내역···············································································122 <표 5-6> 지역별 파급효과···············································································123 <표 5-7> 부산영상센터 건립사업의 지역경제 활성화효과 지수················123 <표 6-1> 총사업비 집행 내역 및 연도별 집행 추정···································128 <표 6-2> 경재성 분석 결과·············································································129 <표 6-3> 경제성 분석 세부 자료 ·································································130 <표 6-4> 재무성 분석 결과·············································································131 <표 6-5> 재무적 수익 세부 자료···································································132 <표 6-6> 재무성 분석 세부 자료···································································133 <표 7-1> 정책적 분석 항목의 범주화····························································138 <표 7-2> 지역낙후도지수 산정에 사용되는 지표의 개요···························140 <표 7-3> 지역낙후도 지수 산정을 위한 지표간 가중치······························141 <표 7-4> 시·도별 지역낙후도 지표별 순위················································142 <표 7-5> 지역낙후도 지표 및 순위(시·군 단위)········································143 <표 7-6> 관련계획관의 연관성·······································································145 <표 7-7> 국가재원의 분야별 배분·································································150

<그림 1-1> 부산영상센터를 중심으로 한 영상문화 클러스트 조성···············7 <그림 1-2> 부산영상센터 시네마운틴 설계 변경 개념도······························10 <그림 2-1> 부산의 기상현황·············································································20 <그림 2-2> 부산광역시 현황·············································································21 <그림 3-1> 부산영상센터 PIFF 광장·······························································51 <그림 3-2> 부산영상센터 상근인력 규모 추정··············································62 <그림 4-1> 지방문예회관 공연장 가동률························································76 <그림 4-2> 연도별 스크린당 인구수·······························································82 <그림 4-3> 영화상영관 이용시 1인당 매점 이용 소비지출 비용················83 <그림 5-1> 부산영상센터를 중심으로 한 영상문화 클러스터 조성···········103 <그림 5-2> 부산영상센터를 중심으로 한 영화영상산업의 분포················104 <그림 5-3> 2000년 이후 부산지역 로케 장소 분포····································106 <그림 5-4> 남해안선 관광벨트·······································································109 <그림 5-5> 싱가폴 에스폴레네이드, 빌바오 구겐하임 미술관 전경··········111 <그림 5-6> 부산영상센터 조감도····································································111