제1장 서론 ············································································································································ 1
1. 필요성 및 목적 ··································································································································· 1
2. 수립범위 및 수립방법 ························································································································ 1
3. 주요 연구내용 ····································································································································· 2
제2장 국내‧외 정책 동향 고찰 ············································································································ 4
1. 기후변화 특성 ····································································································································· 4
2. 글로벌 기후변화대응 정책 동향 ····································································································· 14
3. 한국의 기후변화대응 정책 동향 ····································································································· 18
4. 부산광역시의 기후변화대응 정책동향 ···························································································· 28
제3장 부산광역시 온실가스 배출특성 및 감축대책 관리상황 ······················································· 40
1. 지자체 온실가스 인벤토리 통계 개요 ···························································································· 40
2. 온실가스 배출 특성 ························································································································· 46
3. 온실가스 감축대책 관리상황 분석 ································································································· 55
제4장 부산광역시 온실가스 배출량 및 감축잠재량 ········································································ 60
1. 온실가스 배출량 ······························································································································· 60
2. 감축잠재량 ········································································································································ 64
제5장 부산광역시 온실가스 감축 로드맵 비전 체계 및 감축 목표 ·············································· 75
1. 비전 도출을 위한 여건 분석 ·········································································································· 75
2. 비전 및 추진전략 ····························································································································· 89
3. 온실가스 감축계획 수립 ·················································································································· 93
제6장 부산광역시 온실가스 감축사업 이행계획 ··········································································· 100
1. 총괄 ················································································································································· 100
2. 부문별 감축사업과 감축량 ············································································································ 101
제7장 효과적인 감축 로드맵 추진기반 ························································································· 107
1. 법적‧조직적 체제 정비 ··················································································································· 107
2. ‘2050 해양형 넷제로(Net Zero) 선도도시, 부산 구현 전략’ 마련 ·········································· 110
3. 부산지역 공공기관의 ‘RE100화’ 선언 추진 ················································································ 111
4. 온실가스 감축정책 인지도 제고 및 교육‧홍보 프로그램 신규 발굴 ········································· 111
5. 블루카본(Blue Carbon) 활용형 지역 독자적 온실가스 감축사업 확대 ·································· 113
6. 지역 산업계 온실가스 감축사업 추진 계기 마련 ······································································· 114
7. 기초자치단체(구‧군)‧동남권 광역 차원의 기후변화정책 연대 강화 ··········································· 115
8. 항만도시 기후변화대응 글로벌 네트워크 선도 ··········································································· 115
제8장 결론 및 정책제언 ················································································································· 117
1. 결론 ················································································································································· 117
2. 정책제언 ········································································································································· 121
1) 기후변화 적응대책과의 공편익(共便益, Co-benefit) 제고 전략 구사 ············································ 121
2) ‘산림탄소상쇄제도’ 활용 활성화를 통한 흡수원 확대 강화 ······························································ 121
3) 미진한 온실가스 감축시책의 신규 발굴‧도입 강화 ············································································ 123
4) 융‧결합형 온실가스 감축시책 시범사업 기획‧확대 ············································································· 125
5) ‘기후변화대응 시책개발 연구회’ 활동 활성화 ···················································································· 126
6) 자발적 온실가스 줄이기 실천운동(‘1인 1톤 줄이기’) 재정비 확대 추진 ········································ 126
7) 2030 SDGs 연계 기후변화대응 시정 전개 ······················································································ 128
[참고문헌] ········································································································································· 129
[부록] ················································································································································ 132
[부록-1] 기후변화 관련 용어 정의 ··································································································· 132
[부록-2] 부산광역시 기초자치단체의 온실가스 직접‧간접‧감축인벤토리 배출량 ··························· 133
[부록-3] 온실가스 감축 수단 및 시나리오 ······················································································ 136
[부록-4] 감축 인벤토리 온실가스 감축사업 ····················································································· 140
[부록-5] 온실가스 감축 흡수원 흡수효과(이산화탄소 흡수량) ······················································ 201
<표 Ⅱ-1> 한반도와 전 지구의 연평균 이산화탄소 농도 ··············································································· 10
<표 Ⅱ-2> 부산광역시 연평균기온 전망의 현재 기후값 대비 편차 ······························································ 12
<표 Ⅱ-3> 부산광역시의 폭염일수와 열대야일수 전망 ·················································································· 13
<표 Ⅱ-4> 교토의정서와 新기후체제의 비교 ··································································································· 15
<표 Ⅱ-5> 파리협정의 주요 내용 ····················································································································· 16
<표 Ⅱ-6> 1.5℃와 2℃ 상승에 따른 영향의 차이 ·························································································· 17
<표 Ⅱ-7> 지구온도 ‘2℃ 이하, 1.5℃까지 노력’에 관련한 국제적 논의 경과 ············································· 18
<표 Ⅱ-8> ‘온실가스 감축 의무 실효적 이행’의 세부 중점과제 ···································································· 22
<표 Ⅱ-9> 국가 온실가스 배출량 추이 ············································································································ 24
<표 Ⅱ-10> 한국의 CO2 배출 수준 ················································································································· 24
<표 Ⅱ-11> 2030 국가 온실가스 배출량 감축 목표 ····················································································· 26
<표 Ⅱ-12> 2030 국가 온실가스의 부문별 주요 배출량 감축 수단 ··························································· 27
<표 Ⅱ-13> 부산광역시 제3차 녹색성장 5개년 추진계획의 비전 체계 ······················································· 29
<표 Ⅱ-14> 부산광역시 온실가스 배출량 추이 ······························································································· 30
<표 Ⅱ-15> 부산광역시 2020 온실가스 배출량 감축목표량 ········································································ 31
<표 Ⅱ-16> 부산광역시 기후변화 적응계획의 실천 과제 ·············································································· 33
<표 Ⅱ-17> 부산광역시 건축물부문의 온실가스 감축목표량 ········································································· 38
<표 Ⅲ-1> 지자체 배출경계에 따른 온실가스 배출원 ···················································································· 41
<표 Ⅲ-2> 부산광역시 배출 유형 분석 결과 ··································································································· 42
<표 Ⅲ-3> 배출 유형별 감축사업 ····················································································································· 43
<표 Ⅲ-4> 직접배출량의 주요 배출원 ·············································································································· 43
<표 Ⅲ-5> 간접배출량의 주요 배출원 ·············································································································· 44
<표 Ⅲ-6> 감축인벤토리 구성 체계 ·················································································································· 44
<표 Ⅲ-7> 온실가스 분류체계에 따른 지자체 감축인벤토리 ········································································· 45
<표 Ⅲ-8> 부산광역시 온실가스 직접배출량 추이 ·························································································· 48
<표 Ⅲ-9> 부산광역시 온실가스 간접배출량 추이 ·························································································· 50
<표 Ⅲ-10> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스 배출량 추이 ······································································· 52
<표 Ⅲ-11> 부산광역시 전체인벤토리와 감축인벤토리의 온실가스 배출량 및 비중 추이 ························· 55
<표 Ⅲ-12> 부산광역시 온실가스 감축시책 관리상황 ···················································································· 55
<표 Ⅲ-13> 부산광역시 부문별 온실가스 감축시책 관리상황 ······································································· 56
<표 Ⅲ-14> 신규 도입 부산광역시 온실가스 감축시책 관리상황 ································································· 58
<표 Ⅲ-15> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스 배출량의 원단위 지수 추이 ············································· 59
<표 Ⅳ-1> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스의 부문별 배출량 전망 ························································· 62
<표 Ⅳ-2> 부문별 온실가스 감축잠재량 분석 기준 ························································································ 64
<표 Ⅳ-3> 부문별 온실가스 주요 감축수단 ····································································································· 64
<표 Ⅳ-4> 부산광역시 가정부문의 감축수단별·연도별 감축잠재량 분석 결과 ············································· 67
<표 Ⅳ-5> 부산광역시 상업부문의 감축수단별·연도별 감축잠재량 분석 결과 ············································· 69
<표 Ⅳ-6> 부산광역시 공공·기타부문의 감축수단별·연도별 감축잠재량 분석 결과 ···································· 72
<표 Ⅳ-7> 부산광역시 수송(도로)부문의 감축 수단별·연도별 감축잠재량 분석 결과 ································· 73
<표 Ⅴ-1> 설문조사 개요 ·································································································································· 76
<표 Ⅴ-2> 설문조사 참여자 주요 속성 ············································································································ 76
<표 Ⅴ-3> 부산광역시 온실가스 감축 로드맵 수립을 위한 시민참여 회의 프로그램 ································· 86
<표 Ⅴ-4> 2030년 부산광역시 온실가스 감축 로드맵 비전 체계 ································································ 91
<표 Ⅴ-5> 부산광역시 온실가스 감축 로드맵의 6대 부문별 추진전략 및 주요 추진과제 ························· 92
<표 Ⅴ-6> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스의 부문·단계별 감축량 ························································· 94
<표 Ⅴ-7> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스의 2030 감축량 총괄 ·························································· 95
<표 Ⅴ-8> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스 감축 로드맵의 재원별 소요 사업비 ··································· 97
<표 Ⅴ-9> 부산광역시 온실가스 부문별 감축 로드맵 추진 소요 사업비 ····················································· 97
<표 Ⅴ-10> 부산광역시 온실가스 감축 로드맵 감축사업 목록(총괄) ··························································· 98
<표 Ⅵ-1> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스 감축사업 총괄 ··································································· 101
<표 Ⅵ-2> 부산광역시 건물부문의 감축인벤토리 온실가스 감축사업 및 감축량 ······································ 102
<표 Ⅵ-3> 부산광역시 공공‧기타부문의 감축인벤토리 온실가스 감축사업 및 감축량 ······························ 103
<표 Ⅵ-4> 부산광역시 수송(도로)부문의 감축인벤토리 온실가스 감축사업 및 감축량 ···························· 104
<표 Ⅵ-5> 부산광역시 폐기물부문의 감축인벤토리 온실가스 감축사업 및 감축량 ·································· 105
<표 Ⅵ-6> 부산광역시 흡수원부문의 감축인벤토리 온실가스 감축사업 및 감축량 ·································· 106
<표 Ⅶ-1> 수도권지역 지자체의 기후변화대응 업무수행 조직 구축 상황 ················································· 109
<표 Ⅷ-1> 부산광역시 산림탄소등록부 등록 현황 ······················································································· 122
<표 Ⅷ-2> 건물에너지관리시스템(BEMS)의 도입 효과 ················································································ 125
<표 Ⅷ-3> 부산광역시 온실가스 감축 로드맵과 지속가능발전목표(2030 SDGs)와의 연관도 ················ 128
<그림 Ⅰ-1> 부산광역시 2030 온실가스 감축 로드맵 수립 수행도 ······························································ 3
<그림 Ⅱ-1> 현재 기간(1995~2014) 대비 2000~2100년의 연도별 전지구 평균기온 변화 ····················· 4
<그림 Ⅱ-2> SSP에 따른 현재 대비 21세기 말의 해수면 고도 변화 ···························································· 5
<그림 Ⅱ-3> 우리나라의 106년(1912~2017) 동안의 기온 및 기온 관련 극한기후지수 변화 ·················· 6
<그림 Ⅱ-4> 우리나라의 106년(1912~2017) 동안의 강수 및 강수 관련 극한기후지수 변화 ·················· 7
<그림 Ⅱ-5> 우리나라의 계절길이 변화 ············································································································· 8
<그림 Ⅱ-6> 한반도 이산화탄소 배경농도 추이 ································································································ 9
<그림 Ⅱ-7> 최근 10년 동안의 이산화탄소 배경농도 추이 ············································································ 9
<그림 Ⅱ-8> 부산광역시의 구·군별 연평균기온(℃) 분포도 ··········································································· 10
<그림 Ⅱ-9> 부산광역시의 구·군별 연강수량(㎜) 분포도 ·············································································· 11
<그림 Ⅱ-10> 교토의정서와 新기후체제의 관계 ····························································································· 14
<그림 Ⅱ-11> 2℃ 목표설정 논의 경과 ··········································································································· 16
<그림 Ⅱ-12> 국가 환경종합계획의 비전 체계 ······························································································· 19
<그림 Ⅱ-13> ‘기후환경 위기에 대비된 저탄소 안심사회 조성‘ 핵심전략의 주요 과제와 지표 ················ 20
<그림 Ⅱ-14> 제3차 녹색성장 5개년 계획의 비전 체계 ··············································································· 21
<그림 Ⅱ-15> 제2차 기후변화대응 기본계획 비전 체계 ··············································································· 23
<그림 Ⅱ-16> 국가 온실가스 배출량 원단위 추이 ························································································· 25
<그림 Ⅱ-17> 2030 온실가스 로드맵 감축 경로 ··························································································· 26
<그림 Ⅱ-18> 부산광역시 2020 기후변화대응 종합계획의 비전 체계 ························································ 30
<그림 Ⅱ-19> 부산광역시 2020 온실가스 배출량 전망 ················································································ 31
<그림 Ⅱ-20> 부산광역시 2020 온실가스 배출량 감축목표량 ····································································· 31
<그림 Ⅱ-21> 부산광역시 2020 온실가스 배출량 감축시나리오(Ⅲ)에 의한 부문별 감축량 ···················· 32
<그림 Ⅱ-22> 부산광역시 기후변화 적응계획의 비전 체계 ·········································································· 33
<그림 Ⅱ-23> 2030년 부산도시기본계획(변경)의 비전 체계 ······································································· 34
<그림 Ⅱ-24> 부산광역시 지역에너지계획의 비전 체계 ················································································ 35
<그림 Ⅱ-25> 부산광역시 2050 클린에너지 마스터플랜의 비전 체계 ························································ 36
<그림 Ⅱ-26> 부산광역시 클린에너지의 전력 비중 목표 설정 ····································································· 37
<그림 Ⅱ-27> 부산광역시 녹색건축물 조성계획의 비전 체계 ······································································· 37
<그림 Ⅱ-28> 부산광역시 도시림 조성 관리계획의 비전 체계 ····································································· 39
<그림 Ⅱ-29> 부산광역시 도시림 확충 계획 ·································································································· 39
<그림 Ⅲ-1> 온실가스 배출량 산정방법 ·········································································································· 41
<그림 Ⅲ-2> 온실가스 배출 유형 ····················································································································· 42
<그림 Ⅲ-3> 전체인벤토리와 감축인벤토리의 관계도 ···················································································· 45
<그림 Ⅲ-4> 감축정책 수립을 위한 감축인벤토리의 재구성 ········································································· 46
<그림 Ⅲ-5> 부산광역시 온실가스 배출량 추이 ····························································································· 47
<그림 Ⅲ-6> 부산광역시 부문‧분야별 온실가스 배출량 비중 추이 ······························································· 47
<그림 Ⅲ-7> 부산광역시 온실가스 직접배출량 추이 ······················································································ 49
<그림 Ⅲ-8> 부산광역시 분야별 온실가스 직접배출량 비중 추이 ································································ 49
<그림 Ⅲ-9> 부산광역시 온실가스 간접배출량 추이 ······················································································ 50
<그림 Ⅲ-10> 부산광역시 분야별 온실가스 간접배출량 비중 추이 ······························································ 51
<그림 Ⅲ-11> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스 배출량 추이 ··································································· 52
<그림 Ⅲ-12> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스 배출량의 부문별 비중 추이 ········································· 53
<그림 Ⅲ-13> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스 배출량의 부문별 추이 ··················································· 53
<그림 Ⅲ-14> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스 배출량의 분야별 배출 기여율 추이 ····························· 54
<그림 Ⅲ-15> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스 배출량의 분야별 배출 기여율 비교 ····························· 54
<그림 Ⅲ-16> 부산광역시 전체인벤토리 중 감축인벤토리 비중 ··································································· 55
<그림 Ⅲ-17> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스 배출량의 원단위 지수 추이 ········································· 59
<그림 Ⅳ-1> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스 배출량 실적 및 전망 ······················································· 62
<그림 Ⅳ-2> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스 배출량 ··············································································· 63
<그림 Ⅳ-3> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리의 부문별 온실가스 배출량 내역 ····················································· 63
<그림 Ⅳ-4> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리의 부문별 온실가스 배출량 ······························································ 63
<그림 Ⅴ-1> 기후변화 체감 및 관련 정보 취득 상황 ···················································································· 78
<그림 Ⅴ-2> 탄소포인트제 동참 의향 및 에너지 소비효율 등급 인지도 ····················································· 79
<그림 Ⅴ-3> ‘부산기후변화체험관’ 인지 및 방문경험 ····················································································· 79
<그림 Ⅴ-4> 환경친화적 생활수칙의 실천도 및 참여방안 ············································································· 80
<그림 Ⅴ-5> 기후변화문제 해결의 중요 구성원 및 시민 역할 ····································································· 81
<그림 Ⅴ-6> 기후변화 발생 체감도 및 발생원인 ··························································································· 81
<그림 Ⅴ-7> 온실가스 배출량 감축계획 수립 상황 ························································································ 82
<그림 Ⅴ-8> 기후변화대응 관련 정책동향 및 지원사업 인지도 ···································································· 83
<그림 Ⅴ-9> 기후변화 관련 정보 취득 상황 ··································································································· 84
<그림 Ⅴ-10> 온실가스 감축(완화) 정책추진 3가지 평가기준의 중요도 ····················································· 84
<그림 Ⅴ-11> 주요 온실가스 감축정책의 상대적 중요도 ·············································································· 85
<그림 Ⅴ-12> 부산광역시 온실가스 감축 로드맵 수립을 위한 시민참여단 모집 공고문 ··························· 85
<그림 Ⅴ-13> 부산광역시 온실가스 감축 로드맵 수립을 위한 시민참여 회의 전경 ·································· 86
<그림 Ⅴ-14> 부산지역 언론매체를 통한 ‘온실가스’ 연관 검색 키워드 분석 결과 ···································· 87
<그림 Ⅴ-15> 부산광역시 온실가스 감축 로드맵 관련 SWOT분석 ····························································· 88
<그림 Ⅴ-16> 2050년 넷제로 사회 구현과 연계된 2030년 온실가스 감축 로드맵 개념도 ···················· 90
<그림 Ⅴ-17> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스의 발생량 전망과 감축률 설정 ······································ 95
<그림 Ⅴ-18> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스의 발생량 전망과 감축량 ··············································· 95
<그림 Ⅴ-19> 부산광역시 감축인벤토리 온실가스의 발생량 전망과 목표배출량 설정 ······························ 96
<그림 Ⅶ-1> PDCA사이클 기반 부산광역시 온실가스 감축 로드맵 관리평가시스템 개념도 ·················· 110
<그림 Ⅶ-2> 2030‧2050 온실가스 배출량 감축 개념도 ··········································································· 110
<그림 Ⅶ-3> 온실가스 배출량 감축정책 인지도 제고 및 교육‧홍보 자료 ·················································· 112
<그림 Ⅶ-4> 부산 시민의 기후변화정책 인지도 ··························································································· 112
<그림 Ⅶ-5> 교토시 캠페인‘Do You Kyoto?’ 심볼 로그와 활용 일례 ····················································· 113
<그림 Ⅶ-6> 요코하마시 블루카본 옵셋Blue Carbon-Offset 사업의 심볼 마크 ····································· 113
<그림 Ⅶ-7> 일본 연안역의 이산화탄소(CO2) 흡수량 추정 결과 ······························································· 114
<그림 Ⅶ-8> 기업의 온실가스 배출량 감축대책 지원정책 및 기업의 역할 ··············································· 115
<그림 Ⅶ-9> 친환경 항만 개념도 ··················································································································· 116
<그림 Ⅷ-1> 기후변화 관련 완화대책과 적응대책의 관계 ·········································································· 121
<그림 Ⅷ-2> ‘산림탄소상쇄제도’의 개요 ········································································································ 122
<그림 Ⅷ-3> 키타큐슈시 환경수도 종합교통전략 홍보 포스터 ··································································· 123
<그림 Ⅷ-4> 건물에너지관리시스템(BEMS)의 개요 ····················································································· 124
<그림 Ⅷ-5> 키타큐슈시 제로 카본(zero carbon) 선도지구 조성사업의 주요 컨텐츠 ··························· 125
<그림 Ⅷ-6> ‘온실가스 1인 1톤 줄이기’ 실천서약에 따른 CO2 예상 절감량 ·········································· 126
<그림 Ⅷ-7> 부산시민의 자발적 온실가스 줄이기 실천수칙 실천정도 ······················································ 127
