제1장 서론 ····························································································· 1
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 ····················································································· 1
1) 연구배경 ···································································································· 1
2) 연구목적 ···································································································· 2
2. 연구범위 및 방법 ··························································································· 3
1) 연구범위 ···································································································· 3
2) 연구방법 ···································································································· 3
3) 연구체계 ·········································································································· 4
제2장 북-미 관계 쟁점 및 향후 전망 ················································5
1. 북한 대북제재 현황 ······················································································· 5
1) 유엔 대북제재 현황 ················································································· 5
2) 미국의 대북제재 현황 ·············································································· 8
3) 일본의 대북제제 현황 ············································································ 10
4) EU의 대북제재 현황 ·············································································· 12
2. 북-미 비핵화 협상쟁점 ··············································································· 13
1) 비핵화의 범위 ························································································· 13
2) 비핵화의 방법과 순서 ············································································ 14
3) 제재해제 범위와 속도 ············································································ 15
3. 북-미 관계 정상화 로드맵 ·········································································· 15
1) 북-미 관계 정상화 전망 ······································································· 15
제3장 북한경제정책의 특징과 변화 ················································ 17
1. 현 시기 북한경제정책 변화 ········································································ 17
1) 계획과 시장의 공존 ··············································································· 17
2) 생산품의 국산화 추진 : 자립노선의 지속 ·········································· 18
3) 경제발전과 국방력 동시 강화 : 체제수호형 경제 ····························· 19
4) 공업화와 과학화의 지속적 시도 : 과학중시 노선 ····························· 19
2. 사회주의 기업 책임 관리제 실시 ······························································ 20
1) 기업의 자율성 확대 ··············································································· 20
2) 가격 결정권 및 판매권 확대 ································································ 21
3) 자금 조달권 및 재정 관리권 확대 ······················································· 22
3. 북한 경제개발구 추진 현황 ········································································ 23
1) 경제개발구 사업의 개요 ········································································ 23
2) 경제개발구 사업의 목표 및 의의 ························································· 27
제4장 문재인정부의 한반도 평화경제구상과 지방정부 남북경협사례
검토 ··························································································· 28
1. 한반도 평화경제구상 ··················································································· 28
1) 문재인정부의 ‘한반도 평화경제구상’ ··················································· 28
2) 한반도 신경제구상 개념과 주요 내용 ················································· 29
3) 정부의 신북방정책 현황 ········································································ 31
4) 우리정부의 신남방정책 현황 ································································ 33
2. 지방정부 남북경제협력사업 사례 ······························································· 35
1) 서울시 남북교류협력사업 사례 ···························································· 35
2) 경기도 남북교류협력사업 사례 ···························································· 38
3) 강원도 남북교류협력사업 사례 ···························································· 41
4) 인천시 남북교류협력사업 사례 ···························································· 44
제5장 부산시 남북교류 및 경제협력 방안 ···································· 47
1. 남북 경제협력 추진 가능 사업 ·································································· 47
1) 북한의 산업연관분석에 따른 남북경협사업 ······································ 47
2) 북한의 경제개혁조치에 따른 남북경제협력 사업 검토 ····················· 49
3) 단기적 남북 경제협력 유망 업종 ························································· 50
4) 중·장기 남북경제협력 유망 업종 ························································· 54
2. 부산의 남북 경제협력 추진을 위한 조건 검토 ········································ 55
1) 부산의 산업구조 형성 ············································································ 55
2) 부산의 남북경제협력사업의 전개 ························································· 63
3. 부산의 남북 경제협력사업 ·········································································· 65
1) 단기 사업 ································································································ 65
2) 중·장기 사업 ··························································································· 68
제6장 정책제언 ·················································································· 72
1. 정책제언 ········································································································ 72
1) 중앙정부와 긴밀한 협의 필요 ······························································ 73
2) 안정적 사업 추진을 위한 시민기반 확보 ··········································· 75
3) 부산시 남북경제협력정책에 대한 지속적 연구 필요 ························· 76
4) 부산의 남북경제협력의 안정적 추진을 위한 국제화 ························· 77
5) ‘동북아 해양수도’ 지향 남북경협모델 개발 ······································· 77
Abstract ································································································ 79
참고문헌 ······························································································· 81
부록 ······································································································ 83
<제목 차례>
<표 Ⅱ-1> 유엔 대북제재 결의안 목록 ··························································· 7
<표 Ⅱ-2> 미국의 대북제재 결의안 목록 ························································ 9
<표 Ⅱ-3> 2006년 이후 일본의 대북제재 주요 내용 ································· 11
<표 Ⅲ-1> ‘책임관리제’ 이후 기업개혁 주요 내용 ······································ 23
<표 Ⅲ-2> 경제개발구 주요 정책 ··································································· 24
<표 Ⅲ-3> 북한의 특구·개발구별 주요 산업 업종 ······································· 26
<표 Ⅳ-1> 신남방 정책 3P 추진과제 ···························································· 35
<표 Ⅳ-2> 서울시 3대분야 협력과제 ····························································· 37
<표 Ⅳ-3> 환황해경제벨트 및 접경지역평화벨트 사업 내용 ····················· 40
<표 Ⅳ-4> 강원도 남북교류협력사업 추진 실적 ·········································· 42
<표 Ⅳ-5> 인천 남북교류협력사업 추진 실적 ·············································· 45
<표 Ⅴ-1> 북한 산업별 파급효과 ··································································· 48
<표 Ⅴ-2> 남북한 정부 간 경협관련 합의내용 ············································ 50
<표 Ⅴ-3> 단기 남북경제협력 연계 가능 개발구(1차 산업) ······················ 51
<표 Ⅴ-4> 단기 남북경제협력 연계 가능 개발구(경공업분야) ··················· 52
<표 Ⅴ-5> 단기 남북경제협력 연계 가능 개발구(중공업분야) ··················· 53
<표 Ⅴ-6> 부산의 산업구조 : 부가가치 기준 ··············································· 58
<표 Ⅴ-7> 부산의 산업구조 : 고용(종사자) 기준 ········································ 59
<표 Ⅴ-8> 부산의 산업별 성장 기여율 ························································· 60
<표 Ⅴ-9> 변이-할당분석을 이용한 산업구조 분석 : 산업유형 분류 기준 · 61
<표 Ⅴ-10> 변이-할당분석을 이용한 부산의 산업구조 분석 : 산업유형(’10~’15) ·· 62
<표 Ⅵ-1> 부산시 단기 / 중·장기 남북교류협력사업 방안 ························ 73
<그림 Ⅰ-1> 연구체계도 ···················································································· 4
<그림 Ⅲ-1> 계획과 시장의 공존 합법화 ····················································· 18
<그림 Ⅳ-1> 한반도 신경제지도 구상 ··························································· 30
<그림 Ⅳ-2> 한-러 9-Bridge 개요 ······························································· 32
<그림 Ⅳ-3> 신북방정책 14대 중점 추진과제 체계도 ································ 33
<그림 Ⅳ-> 신재생에너지 분야 중장기 과제 ················································ 37
<그림 Ⅳ-5> 경기도 통일경제특구 구상 ······················································· 40
<그림 Ⅳ-6> 강원도 환동해권 경제협력 구상 ·············································· 43
<그림 Ⅳ-7> 철원 평화산업단지 조성계획 ···················································· 44
<그림 Ⅳ-8> 인천시 남북경제협력 방안 ······················································· 46
<그림 Ⅴ-1> 단기 남북경제협력 추진목표 ···················································· 65
<그림 Ⅴ-2> 중·장기 남북경제협력 추진목표 ··············································· 69
<그림 Ⅵ-1> 신남방정책과 연계된 부산항-북한 비즈니스 모델 ················ 78