제1장 서론····························································································· 1
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 ·················································································· 1
2. 연구개요 ······································································································· 3
1) 연구범위 및 방법 ·················································································· 3
2) 연구 내용 ······························································································· 3
3. 관련 선행연구와의 차별성 ········································································ 5
1) 관련연구 검토 ······················································································· 5
2) 기존 연구와의 차별성 ·········································································· 8
제2장 부산시 인구 및 교통현황 분석·············································· 9
1. 부산시 인구현황 ························································································· 9
1) 총 인구 ··································································································· 9
2) 연령별 인구 ························································································· 11
3) 총 가구 ································································································ 12
4) 1인 가구 ······························································································ 13
2. 부산시 장래 인구 구조 변화 ·································································· 15
1) 총 장래인구 ························································································· 15
2) 연령별 장래인구 ················································································· 17
3) 장래 1인 가구 ····················································································· 19
3. 부산시 교통현황 ······················································································· 20
1) 차량 및 도로 현황 ············································································· 20
2) 교통수단 현황 ····················································································· 22
3) 교통약자 지원 ····················································································· 27
4) 교통사고 ······························································································· 31
4. 부산시 장래 통행량 ················································································· 32
1) 주수단통행량 ······················································································· 32
2) 목적통행량 ··························································································· 34
5. 시사점 ········································································································ 36
1) 급격한 인구구조 변화 ······································································ 36
2) 차량 등록대수의 지속적 증가 ··························································· 36
3) 대중교통 활성화 미흡 ········································································ 37
4) 교통약자의 교통안전 위협상황 지속 ··············································· 37
5) 장래 통행량 감소 ··············································································· 38
제3장 부산시 장래 교통정책 방향················································· 39
1. 교통관련 트렌드 검토 ·············································································· 39
1) 국토교통분야 관련 미래 트렌드 ······················································· 39
2) 교통분야 관련 미래 트렌드 ······························································ 44
2. 교통정책 및 교통계획 분석 ···································································· 46
1) 교통정책 분석 ····················································································· 46
2) 교통계획 분석 ····················································································· 54
3) 시사점 ·································································································· 58
3. 장래 교통정책의 방향 ·············································································· 60
제4장 인구변화와 교통정책······························································ 61
1. 현재 교통정책에 대한 평가 ···································································· 61
1) 전문가 의견 ························································································· 61
2) 시민 의견 ····························································································· 62
3) 현재 교통환경 및 교통정책 평가 종합 ··········································· 70
2. 인구변화에 따른 장래 교통정책 분석 ··················································· 82
1) 시민 통행특성 ····················································································· 82
2) 장래 교통정책 순위 ············································································ 83
3) 장래 교통환경 수준 ············································································ 84
4) 인구변화 요인을 고려한 교통정책 ··················································· 87
3. 인구변화 요인을 고려한 향후 세부 교통정책 수단 분석 ················· 103
1) 전문가의 향후 세부 정책수단 분석 ··············································· 103
2) 인구변화 요인별 분석 ······································································ 118
3) 시민들의 세부 정책수단 분석 ························································ 125
4) 시민과 전문가 의견 종합 ································································ 137
제5장 결론 및 정책제언································································· 158
1. 결론 ·········································································································· 158
2. 정책 제언 ································································································ 160
1) 교통정책 수립 및 진행에 시민참여 필요 ······································ 160
2) 교통관련 계획에 인구변화 요인분석 포함 ···································· 162
3) 인구관련 조례에 교통관련 사항 포함 ··········································· 163
Abstract······························································································· 165
참고문헌····························································································· 166
부록····································································································· 171
<표 Ⅱ-1> 부산시 총 인구 현황 ····································································· 10
<표 Ⅱ-2> 부산시 성별별 인구 현황(내국인) ··············································· 10
<표 Ⅱ-3> 부산시 연령별 인구수(내국인) ····················································· 11
<표 Ⅱ-4> 부산시 총 가구 현황 ····································································· 12
<표 Ⅱ-5> 부산시 1인 가구수 현황 ······························································· 14
<표 Ⅱ-6> 부산시 연령별 1인 가구수 현황 ················································· 15
<표 Ⅱ-7> 부산시 장래인구 추계 ··································································· 16
<표 Ⅱ-8> 부산시 연령별 장래인구 추계 ····················································· 18
<표 Ⅱ-9> 부산시 장래 1인 가구수 추계 ····················································· 19
<표 Ⅱ-10> 부산시 차량등록 추이(1995~2019년) ······································· 20
<표 Ⅱ-11> 부산시 도로연장 추이(1995~2019년) ······································· 21
<표 Ⅱ-12> 부산시 구‧군별 보도 현황 ·························································· 22
<표 Ⅱ-13> 국내 시내버스 운영 현황(2020년) ············································ 23
<표 Ⅱ-14> 부산시 철도 운영 현황 ······························································· 24
<표 Ⅱ-15> 부산시 교통수단별 통행량 추이(1995~2019년) ······················ 26
<표 Ⅱ-16> 부산시 대중교통 환승통행량 추이(2016~2019년) ·················· 27
<표 Ⅱ-17> 광역 대중교통 환승통행량 추이(2018~2019년) ······················ 27
<표 Ⅱ-18> 광역지자체별 특별교통수단 현황(2019년) ······························· 28
<표 Ⅱ-19> 두리발 시간대별 운행형황 ························································· 28
<표 Ⅱ-20> 두리발 운송실적(2006~2019년) ················································ 29
<표 Ⅱ-21> 장애인 콜택시 운송실적(2012~2019년) ··································· 30
<표 Ⅱ-22> 지자체별 저상버스 도입현황(2020년 2월) ······························· 30
<표 Ⅱ-23> 부산시 교통사고 추이(1995~2019년) ······································· 31
<표 Ⅱ-24> 부산내 연도별 주수단통행량 예측(내부통행) ·························· 32
<표 Ⅱ-25> 연도별 주수단별 부산 발생/도착통행량 예측(광역권) ··········· 33
<표 Ⅱ-26> 부산내 연도별 목적통행량 예측(내부통행) ······························ 34
<표 Ⅱ-27> 연도별 목적별 부산 발생통행량 예측(광역권) ························ 35
<표 Ⅳ-1> 현재의 부산시 교통정책 추진(전문가 1차) ································ 62
<표 Ⅳ-2> 일반특성(시민) ··············································································· 63
<표 Ⅳ-3> 연령별 한 달 평균 교통비(시민) ················································· 67
<표 Ⅳ-4> 교통정책별 현재의 수행 정도(시민) ··········································· 69
<표 Ⅳ-5> 이용 교통수단별 부산시 교통환경 수준(시민) ·························· 70
<표 Ⅳ-6> 연령대별 교통환경 인식 비교 분석결과(시민) ·························· 71
<표 Ⅳ-7> 연령대별 교통환경 인식 비교 동일 집단군 분석(시민) ··········· 71
<표 Ⅳ-8> 가구원수별 교통환경 인식 비교 분석결과(시민) ······················· 72
<표 Ⅳ-9> 가구원수별 교통환경 인식 비교 동일 집단군 분석(시민) ········ 72
<표 Ⅳ-10> 연령대별 현재 교통정책 인식 비교 분석결과(시민) ··············· 74
<표 Ⅳ-11> 연령대별 현재 교통정책 인식 비교 동일 집단군 분석(시민) ··· 76
<표 Ⅳ-12> 가구원수별 현재 교통정책 인식 비교 분석결과(시민) ··········· 78
<표 Ⅳ-13> 가구원수별 현재 교통정책 인식 비교 동일 집단군 분석(시민) ·· 80
<표 Ⅳ-14> 연령별 장래 차량 구매 의사(시민) ··········································· 82
<표 Ⅳ-15> 연령별 2030년경 주로 이용하고 싶은 교통수단(시민) ·········· 83
<표 Ⅳ-16> 현재와 장래의 부산시 교통정책 추진(전문가 1차) ················ 84
<표 Ⅳ-17> 연령대별 장래 부산 교통환경 수준 변화 예측(시민) ············· 85
<표 Ⅳ-18> 연령대별 장래 교통환경 인식 비교 분석결과(시민) ··············· 85
<표 Ⅳ-19> 연령대별 교통환경 인식 비교 동일 집단군 분석(시민) ········· 85
<표 Ⅳ-20> 가구원수별 장래 부산 교통환경 수준 변화 예측(시민) ········· 86
<표 Ⅳ-21> 가구원수별 장래 교통환경 인식 비교 분석결과(시민) ··········· 86
<표 Ⅳ-22> 가구원수별 교통환경 인식 비교 동일 집단군 분석(시민) ····· 87
<표 Ⅳ-23> 부산시 교통정책의 인구변화 요인별 대응 정도(전문가 1차) ···· 87
<표 Ⅳ-24> 연령대별 인구변화 요인별 교통정책 대응 평가(시민) ··········· 88
<표 Ⅳ-25> 연령대별 인구변화 요인별 교통정책 대응 비교 분석결과(시민) ··· 89
<표 Ⅳ-26> 연령대별 인구변화 요인별 비교 동일 집단군 분석(시민) ····· 90
<표 Ⅳ-27> 가구원수별 인구변화 요인별 교통정책 대응 평가(시민) ······· 91
<표 Ⅳ-28> 가구원수별 인구변화 요인별 교통정책 대응 비교 분석결과(시민) ···· 91
<표 Ⅳ-29> 가구원수별 인구변화 요인별 비교 동일 집단군 분석(시민) ·· 92
<표 Ⅳ-30> 인구변화 요인이 교통정책에 미치는 영향 정도(전문가 1차) ··· 96
<표 Ⅳ-31> 인구변화 요인별 교통정책 대응 순서(전문가 1차) ················ 97
<표 Ⅳ-32> 인구변화 요인의 교통정책 시행 우선순위(전문가 1차) ········· 98
<표 Ⅳ-33> 인구변화 요인의 교통정책 시행 우선순위 종합(전문가 1차) ··· 99
<표 Ⅳ-34> 현재와 장래의 부산시 교통정책 우선순위 변화 ··················· 100
<표 Ⅳ-35> 생활교통 인프라 중심 정책 수단 우선순위(전문가 2차) ····· 103
<표 Ⅳ-36> 교통안전 중심 정책 수단 우선순위(전문가 2차) ·················· 105
<표 Ⅳ-37> 스마트 모빌리티 중심 정책 수단 우선순위(전문가 2차) ····· 106
<표 Ⅳ-38> 미래 첨단교통 구축 수단 우선순위(전문가 2차) ·················· 108
<표 Ⅳ-39> 대중교통(버스, 철도) 중심 정책 우선순위(전문가 2차) ······· 110
<표 Ⅳ-40> 녹색교통 중심 정책 수단 우선순위(전문가 2차) ·················· 112
<표 Ⅳ-41> 첨단교통시스템(ITS) 구축 중심 정책 수단 우선순위(전문가 2차) ·· 113
<표 Ⅳ-42> 자가용 관리(억제) 중심 정책 수단 우선순위(전문가 2차) ·· 114
<표 Ⅳ-43> 광역교통(인프라 구축 등) 중심 정책 수단 우선순위(전문가 2차) ··· 116
<표 Ⅳ-44> 도로건설 중심 정책 수단 우선순위(전문가 2차) ·················· 117
<표 Ⅳ-45> 인구변화 요인을 고려한 정책수단별 등급(전문가 2차) ······· 123
<표 Ⅳ-46> 연령대별 인구변화를 고려한 장래 교통정책 수립시 장래
부산 교통환경 수준 변화 예측(시민) ····································· 134
<표 Ⅳ-47> 연령대별 인구변화를 고려한 장래 교통환경 인식 비교
분석결과(시민) ··········································································· 135
<표 Ⅳ-48> 연령대별 인구변화를 고려한 장래 교통환경 인식 비교
동일 집단군 분석(시민) ···························································· 135
<표 Ⅳ-49> 가구원수별 인구변화를 고려한 장래 교통정책 수립시
장래 부산 교통환경 수준 변화 예측(시민) ···························· 136
<표 Ⅳ-50> 가구원수별 인구변화를 고려한 장래 교통정책 수립시
장래 부산 교통환경 수준 인식 비교 분석결과(시민) ··········· 136
<표 Ⅳ-51> 가구원수별 인구변화를 고려한 장래 교통정책 수립시
장래 부산 교통환경 수준 인식 비교 동일 집단군 분석(시민) ··· 137
<표 Ⅳ-52> 인구변화를 고려한 시민, 전문가 종합 교통정책 수단
등급 설정 ··················································································· 153
<표 Ⅳ-53> 인구변화를 고려한 교통정책 수단별 추진시기 ····················· 156
<표 Ⅴ-1> 교통 모니터링 요원 교육일정(안) ············································· 162
<표 Ⅴ-2> ｢부산광역시 인구정책 기본 조례｣ 개정(안) ·························· 164
<그림 Ⅰ-1> 연구 흐름도 ·················································································· 4
<그림 Ⅱ-1> 출생아수·사망자수 추이 ·························································· 16
<그림 Ⅱ-2> 합계출산율 추이 ········································································ 17
<그림 Ⅱ-3> 부산시 인구피라미드 변화전망 ·············································· 18
<그림 Ⅱ-4> 부산 1인 가구 연령별 규모 ····················································· 19
<그림 Ⅲ-1> 국토교통분야 관련 미래 트렌드 ············································ 40
<그림 Ⅲ-2> 1996~2000년 교통정책 키워드 ··············································· 47
<그림 Ⅲ-3> 2001~2005년 교통정책 키워드 ··············································· 49
<그림 Ⅲ-4> 2006~2010년 교통정책 키워드 ··············································· 49
<그림 Ⅲ-5> 2011~2015년 교통정책 키워드 ··············································· 51
<그림 Ⅲ-6> 2011~2015년 도로정책 키워드 ··············································· 52
<그림 Ⅲ-7> 2016~현재(2020년) 교통정책 키워드 ····································· 53
<그림 Ⅲ-8> 2016~현재(2020년) 도로정책 키워드 ····································· 53
<그림 Ⅲ-9> 교통계획(2011~2020년) 키워드 ··············································· 58
<그림 Ⅲ-10> 장래 교통정책의 방향 키워드 ················································ 60
<그림 Ⅳ-1> 연령별 가구원수(시민) ···························································· 63
<그림 Ⅳ-2> 연령별 통행목적(시민) ···························································· 64
<그림 Ⅳ-3> 연령별 통행수단(시민) ······························································ 65
<그림 Ⅳ-4> 연령별 차량보유 현황(시민) ····················································· 66
<그림 Ⅳ-5> 연령별 운전 여부(시민) ···························································· 66
<그림 Ⅳ-6> 연령별 1주일간 평균 통행횟수(시민) ······································ 67
<그림 Ⅳ-7> 연령별 부산 전역 교통환경 수준 평가(시민) ························· 68
<그림 Ⅳ-8> 가구원수별 부산전역 교통환경 수준 평가(시민) ··················· 69
<그림 Ⅳ-9> 인구변화가 교통수요에 미치는 영향 정도(전문가 1차) ······· 93
<그림 Ⅳ-10> 인구변화가 교통수요에 미치는 영향 정도(시민) ················· 94
<그림 Ⅳ-11> 인구변화 요인이 교통정책에 미치는 영향 정도(전문가 1차) ·· 96
<그림 Ⅳ-12> 현재와 장래의 부산시 교통정책 우선순위 변화(전문가 1차) ·· 102
<그림 Ⅳ-13> 생활교통 인프라 중심 정책 수단의 인구변화 요인별 비율
(전문가 2차) ··········································································· 104
<그림 Ⅳ-14> 교통안전 중심 정책 수단의 인구변화 요인별 비율
(전문가 2차) ··········································································· 105
<그림 Ⅳ-15> 스마트 모빌리티 중심 정책 수단의 인구변화 요인별 비율
(전문가 2차) ··········································································· 107
<그림 Ⅳ-16> 미래 첨단교통 구축 중심 정책 수단의 인구변화 요인별 비율
(전문가 2차) ··········································································· 109
<그림 Ⅳ-17> 대중교통(버스, 철도) 중심 정책 수단의 인구변화 요인별 비율
(전문가 2차) ··········································································· 111
<그림 Ⅳ-18> 녹색교통 중심 정책 수단의 인구변화 요인별 비율
(전문가 2차) ··········································································· 112
<그림 Ⅳ-19> 첨단교통시스템(ITS) 중심 정책 수단의 인구변화 요인별 비율
(전문가 2차) ··········································································· 113
<그림 Ⅳ-20> 자가용 관리(억제) 중심 정책 수단의 인구변화 요인별 비율
(전문가 2차) ··········································································· 115
<그림 Ⅳ-21> 광역교통(인프라 구축 등) 중심 정책 수단의 인구변화 요인별
비율(전문가 2차) ·································································· 116
<그림 Ⅳ-22> 도로건설 중심 정책 수단의 인구변화 요인별 비율
(전문가 2차) ··········································································· 118
<그림 Ⅳ-23> 인구감소 요인, 초고령사회 진입 요인별 정책수단 분포
(전문가 2차) ··········································································· 119
<그림 Ⅳ-24> 인구감소 요인, 1인 가구 증가 요인별 정책수단 분포
(전문가 2차) ··········································································· 120
<그림 Ⅳ-25> 초고령사회 진입 요인, 1인 가구 증가 요인별 정책수단 분포
(전문가 2차) ··········································································· 121
<그림 Ⅳ-26> 정책수단별 인구감소, 초고령사회 진입 요인, 1인 가구 증가
요인별 비율 ············································································ 125
<그림 Ⅳ-27> 생활교통(주차, 보행 등) 인프라 중심 정책에 관한 의견(시민) ··· 126
<그림 Ⅳ-28> 교통안전 중심 정책에 관한 의견(시민) ······························ 127
<그림 Ⅳ-29> 스마트 모빌리티(PM, MaaS 등) 중심 정책에 관한 의견(시민) ·· 127
<그림 Ⅳ-30> 스마트 모빌리티(PM, MaaS 등) 중심 정책에 관한 의견(시민) ·· 128
<그림 Ⅳ-31> 대중교통(버스, 철도) 중심 정책에 관한 의견(시민) ········· 129
<그림 Ⅳ-32> 녹색교통(전기·수소차, 자전거 등) 중심 정책에 관한 의견(시민) ··· 130
<그림 Ⅳ-33> 지능형교통체계(ITS) 구축 중심 정책에 관한 의견(시민) ·· 131
<그림 Ⅳ-34> 자가용관리(억제) 중심 정책에 관한 의견(시민) ················ 131
<그림 Ⅳ-35> 광역교통(인프라 구축 등) 중심 정책에 관한 의견(시민) · 132
<그림 Ⅳ-36> 도로건설 중심 정책에 관한 의견(시민) ······························ 133
<그림 Ⅳ-37> 20대 PNA(시민) ···································································· 138
<그림 Ⅳ-38> 30대 PNA(시민) ···································································· 139
<그림 Ⅳ-39> 40대 PNA(시민) ···································································· 141
<그림 Ⅳ-40> 50대 PNA(시민) ···································································· 142
<그림 Ⅳ-41> 60대 이상 PNA(시민) ··························································· 143
<그림 Ⅳ-42> 연령 전체 PNA(시민) ···························································· 144
<그림 Ⅳ-43> 1인 가구 PNA(시민) ····························································· 145
<그림 Ⅳ-44> 2인 가구 PNA(시민) ····························································· 146
<그림 Ⅳ-45> 3인 가구 PNA(시민) ····························································· 147
<그림 Ⅳ-46> 4인 가구 PNA(시민) ····························································· 148
<그림 Ⅳ-47> 5인 가구 PNA(시민) ····························································· 150
<그림 Ⅳ-48> 전체 가구 PNA(시민) ···························································· 151
<그림 Ⅴ-1> 인구변화 요인 추가 검토(안) ················································· 163
