제1장 서론 ·················································································································1
1. 연구 배경 및 목적 ···························································································1
1) 연구 배경 ····································································································1
2) 연구 목적 ····································································································2
2. 연구 범위 및 방법 ···························································································3
1) 연구범위 ······································································································3
2) 연구방법 ······································································································3
3. 연구 주요 내용 ·································································································4
제2장 노동의 미래와 결정요인 ···················································································5
1. 노동의 미래상(未來像) ······················································································7
1) 노동의 미래에 관한 주요연구 검토 ····························································7
2) 노동의 미래와 차원 ··················································································11
3) 본 연구 분석 틀: 수정된 노동의 미래 차원 ···········································12
2. 노동의 미래 결정요인 ·····················································································14
1) 이론적 논의 ······························································································14
2) 선행연구 검토 ···························································································16
3) 기술, 경제사회 환경이 노동의 미래에 미치는 영향 ·································19
제3장 코로나19, 앞당겨진 노동의 미래 ··································································21
1. 코로나19와 노동 변화 ··················································································21
1) 주요 선행연구 ·························································································21
2) 코로나19 이후 ‘노동의 미래’ 차원별 주요 변화 ····································26
2. 코로나19 이후 가속화된 노동의 미래 ····························································30
1) 일하는 방식 변화 ······················································································30
2) 미래 일자리 불안감 증대(Anxiety about Future Job) ··························36
3) 일터 변화: 재택근무 확산과 강화되는 디지털 감시 ·································44
4) 조직문화 변화: 노동자 가치관 변화 ·························································50
5) 노동자 권리 변화: 노조약화와 노사관계 쟁점 변화 ·······························54
3. 코로나19이후 부산지역 노동 변화 ·································································61
1) 일하는 방식의 변화: 무인화 기술 확산과 플랫폼 노동자 증가 ················61
2) 고용불안 증가: 정규직 일자리 감소와 심화되는 청년실업 ·······················67
3) 일터 변화: 재택근무 등 유연근무 확산 ····················································72
4) 노동문화 변화: 노동자 가치관 변화 ·························································74
5) 노동권리 약화: 코로나19로 위축된 노동조합 활동 ··································76
4. 가속화된 노동의 미래와 예상되는 노동 문제 ·················································78
제4장 코로나19와 노동사회 변화 인식 ····································································80
1. 조사개요 ·········································································································80
2. 분석 결과 ·······································································································81
1) 시민 조사 ··································································································81
2) 전문가 조사 ··························································································106
3. 종합 및 시사점 ·······················································································109
제5장 노동의 미래에 대비한 부산시 노동관련 정책과제 ·······································111
1. 부산시 차원의 노동정책 마련 필요성 ··························································111
1) 지방정부 차원의 노동정책 필요성 ··························································111
2) 부산시 주요 노동정책 ·············································································114
2. 정책 구성 틀: ILO, 일의 미래를 위한 의제 ················································117
1) ILO, 일의 미래를 위한 인간중심 의제 ··················································117
2) 부산시 차원의 노동 정책 우선순위 ························································119
3. 노동의 미래에 대비한 부산시 노동정책 의제 ·············································120
1) 부산시 정책 마련을 위한 틀 ··································································120
2) 노동 변화에 대비한 부산시 노동정책 방향 ··········································122
제6장 결론 ·············································································································142
1. 요약 ··············································································································142
2. 정책제언 ·······································································································144
1) 노동 변화에 신속한 대응을 위한 노동전담 부서 강화 ·························144
2) 환경 변화를 고려한 노동정책기본계획 핵심과제 추가 ····························145
3) 부산지역 미래 노동의제에 대한 사회적 합의 추진 ································146
4) 정책방향의 구체화를 위한 후속 연구 필요 ············································147
Abstract ················································································································149
참고문헌 ·················································································································151
<표 Ⅱ-1> 노동 4.0(Arbeiten 4.0)에서 제시하는 노동의 미래 ······································8
<표 Ⅱ-2> 지식 기반형 ‘사무직’의 변화 ··········································································9
<표 Ⅱ-3> 노동의 미래 차원별 주요 변화 ·····································································14
<표 Ⅱ-4> 미래 노동시장 변화에 대한 추정 ·································································18
<표 Ⅲ-1> 코로나19로 인한 사회경제적 변화 ·······························································23
<표 Ⅲ-2> ‘포스트 코로나’ 시대의 주요 미래예측에 대한 종합분석 ·····························25
<표 Ⅲ-3> 코로나19로 인한 환경 변화(기술/경제·사회) ···············································26
<표 Ⅲ-4> 코로나19이후 노동의 미래 차원별 주요 변화 ··············································29
<표 Ⅲ-5> 신규 임금노동자의 고용형태 비중 ································································37
<표 Ⅲ-6> CLC(캐나다 노총), 정의로운 전환의 5원칙 ·················································61
<표 Ⅲ-7> 특·광역시 자동화 3대 고위험 직종 종사자 비중 ·········································63
<표 Ⅲ-8> 부산시 이륜차 증감현황(2016-2020) ··························································66
<표 Ⅲ-9> 특·광역시 5인 미만 기업 종사자 비율(2019년) ··········································73
<표 Ⅲ-10> 특·광역시 소득만족도 현황(2019년, 단위:%) ············································76
<표 Ⅲ-11> 노동의 미래와 예상되는 노동 문제 ····························································78
<표 Ⅳ-1> 조사 방법 ·····································································································80
<표 Ⅳ-2> 코로나19 이후 일터에서 경험한 노동 변화 ·················································81
<표 Ⅳ-3> 코로나19 발생으로 인한 노동사회 변화 인식 ··············································88
<표 Ⅳ-4> 미래 노동사회 변화 전망 ·············································································95
<표 Ⅳ-5> 미래 노동 변화가 미칠 영향 ······································································102
<표 Ⅳ-6> 코로나19, 부산지역 주요 노동 변화 순위(전문가 조사 결과) ····················106
<표 Ⅴ-1> 중앙정부와 지방정부의 노동정책의 비교 ····················································112
<표 Ⅴ-2> 지방정부 노동행정 제도화 현황: 특광역시(2021년 1/4분기 기준) ···········113
<표 Ⅴ-3> 부산시 노동정책 10대 핵심과제 ································································116
<표 Ⅴ-4> ILO의 일의 미래를 위한 인간중심 의제 주요과제 ·····································118
<표 Ⅴ-5> 정책 우선순위가 높은 변화(IPA분석 결과)별 정책 대상 ····························120
<표 Ⅴ-6> ILO 일의 미래를 위한 인간 중심 의제 주요과제 내용 ·····························121
<표 Ⅴ-7> 노동 변화에 대비한 부산시 10대 정책 방향 ·············································123
<표 Ⅴ-8> 서울시의 유급병가지원 사업 ·······································································129
<표 Ⅴ-9> 화물자동차의 안전운임제의 주요 내용 ·······················································131
<표 Ⅴ-10> 한국플랫폼프리랜서노동공제회 김동만 이사장 인터뷰 내용 ·····················134
<표 Ⅴ-11> 생활임금 확산단계 ····················································································137
<표 Ⅴ-12> 미래 노동 변화가 미칠 영향 ····································································138
<표 Ⅵ-1> 노동 변화에 대비한 부산시 10대 정책 방향 ·············································144
<표 Ⅵ-2> 유럽연합의 새로운 고용형태 유형들 (Eurofound, 2020) ·························148
<그림 Ⅰ-1> 연구의 흐름과 주요 내용 ············································································4
<그림 Ⅱ-1> 노동의 미래 구성 차원 ·············································································12
<그림 Ⅱ-2> 노동의 미래 차원(본 연구의 분석틀) ························································13
<그림 Ⅱ-3> 미래 사회 변화 동인과 미래 일자리 환경 변화 트렌드 ····························17
<그림 Ⅱ-4> 노동의 미래 결정요인 ···············································································20
<그림 Ⅲ-1> 코로나19 이후 사회변화의 주요내용 ························································24
<그림 Ⅲ-2> 코로나19 이후 환경 변화와 노동의 미래 ·················································27
<그림 Ⅲ-3> 코로나19 이후 환경 변화와 가속화된 노동의 미래 ··································28
<그림 Ⅲ-4> 전문가 자문회의 모습 ···············································································29
<그림 Ⅲ-5> 국내 대형마트와 생필품 매장의 무인계산기 ·············································30
<그림 Ⅲ-6> 대화형 키오스크 시장 규모 및 전망 ·························································31
<그림 Ⅲ-7> 비제조업 분야의 로봇 도입 ·······································································32
<그림 Ⅲ-8> 코로나19팬데믹으로 인한 디지털화 자동화 확산 인식 ·····························33
<그림 Ⅲ-9> 주요 온-오프라 유통매출 (전년동월비, %) ············································34
<그림 Ⅲ-10> 대면 및 비대면 분기별 결제 증감률 (전년동기비, %) ···························34
<그림 Ⅲ-11> 모바일 배달 앱 이용현황 ········································································34
<그림 Ⅲ-12> 코로나19로 인한 변화의 장기적 지속성에 대한 예상 ····························35
<그림 Ⅲ-13> 디지털 노동 플랫폼과 플랫폼노동 개요 ··················································36
<그림 Ⅲ-14> 기술변화와 고용형태 변화 ·······································································38
<그림 Ⅲ-15> 코로나19로 인한 고용환경 변화와 고용정책의 방향 ······························39
<그림 Ⅲ-16> 일자리 유형별 구인 인원 및 현원 비중 추이 ·········································39
<그림 Ⅲ-17> 청년 취업자수 변동: 2019.01~2020.10 ···············································40
<그림 Ⅲ-18> 2030세대의 코로나세대 인식 ·································································41
<그림 Ⅲ-19> 연령대별 우울 위험군 ·············································································42
<그림 Ⅲ-20> 적극적 구직활동 여부 ·············································································43
<그림 Ⅲ-21> 위드 코로나, 취업 재준비할 계획 ···························································44
<그림 Ⅲ-22> 매출 상위 100대 기업 재택근무 실태조사 결과 ····································44
<그림 Ⅲ-23> 코로나19 이후 업무방식 변화 실태 ························································45
<그림 Ⅲ-24> 스마트워크 이용 현황 ·············································································46
<그림 Ⅲ-25> 거점근무 인식 및 도입 희망 ···································································47
<그림 Ⅲ-26> 재택근무 근로자 생산성 관리를 위한 방안 조사 결과 ···························48
<그림 Ⅲ-27> 재택근무 부당사례 ···················································································50
<그림 Ⅲ-28> 가장 오래 근무한 일자리(55~64세) 근속기간 및 그만둔 연령 ··············51
<그림 Ⅲ-29> 부업자 증감현황(2016~2021) ································································52
<그림 Ⅲ-30> 부업 참여 실태조사 결과 ········································································53
<그림 Ⅲ-31> 직장인 N잡러 인식조사 결과 ··································································54
<그림 Ⅲ-32> 임금교섭 진도율(각 연도 11월 말 기준) ················································55
<그림 Ⅲ-33> 노동위원회 조정신청건수 비교(2019년과 2020년 비교) ························55
<그림 Ⅲ-34> 노사분규 발생건수(1996~2020) 비교) ···················································56
<그림 Ⅲ-35> 노동조합 온라인투표시스템 이용 건수 ····················································57
<그림 Ⅲ-36> 화석연료 수요 감소: 2040년까지 ···························································58
<그림 Ⅲ-37> 산업구조 변화 대응한 공정한 노동전환 지원방안(정부자료) ···················59
<그림 Ⅲ-38> 부산지역 L특급호텔의 비대면 서비스 로봇 ············································62
<그림 Ⅲ-39> 자동화 고위험군 직종 종사자 비중(특·광역시 비교) ·······························63
<그림 Ⅲ-40> 부산지역 쿠팡 캠프 ·················································································64
<그림 Ⅲ-41> 쿠팡플렉스 가입자 변화(2020년 대비 2021년 증감률) ·························65
<그림 Ⅲ-42> 지역별 수행 라이더수 증감율(2020년 1월 대비 4월) ····························66
<그림 Ⅲ-43> 특·광역시 비정규직 증감현황(2009-2020) ············································67
<그림 Ⅲ-44> 부산시 고용형태별 변화(2016-2020) ····················································67
<그림 Ⅲ-45> 채용계획이 없는 사유 ·············································································68
<그림 Ⅲ-46> 코로나19 팬데믹 장기화에 따라 달라진 경영전략(복수응답) ··················69
<그림 Ⅲ-47> 코로나19 팬데믹 이후 채용방식·인력운영 변화(복수응답) ······················69
<그림 Ⅲ-48> 코로나19로 인한 인력운용 현황 및 계획 ···············································70
<그림 Ⅲ-49> 청년층(15-29세) 고용률 추이 ································································71
<그림 Ⅲ-50> 코로나 확산 속 부산지역 취업자 추이 ···················································71
<그림 Ⅲ-51> 부산지역의 연령 및 성별 취업자 증감현황 ·············································72
<그림 Ⅲ-52> 코로나19 팬데믹 이후 도입했거나 예정인 근무환경 변화(복수응답) ······73
<그림 Ⅲ-53> 코로나19로 인한 부산시민의 소득 감소 경험 ········································74
<그림 Ⅲ-54> 부산-전국 평균임금 변화(2019년 대비 2020년) ···································74
<그림 Ⅲ-55> 8대 광역시 임금노동자 평균 주당 노동시간 및 평균임금 ······················75
<그림 Ⅲ-56> 부산지방노동위원회 조정신청건수 비교(2019년과 2020년 비교) ··········77
<그림 Ⅲ-57> 부산시 노사분규 건수(2006-2020) ························································77
<그림 Ⅳ-1> 코로나19 이후 경험한 노동의 변화 경험 ·················································82
<그림 Ⅳ-2> 일하는 회사에 무인화 기술(키오스크, 로봇 등)도입 ·································83
<그림 Ⅳ-3> 회사 사정으로 기존하던 업무가 사라져 새로운 업무 담당 ·······················84
<그림 Ⅳ-4> 현재 다니는(혹은 최근 그만둔)직장 내 인력구조조정 시행 ······················84
<그림 Ⅳ-5> 감염의 두려움에도 불구, 일의 특성상 재택근무 어려움 ···························85
<그림 Ⅳ-6> 직장 일이 인생에서 차지하는 비중 감소 ··················································85
<그림 Ⅳ-7> 비대면 업무 증가로 회사에 대한 소속감이 감소 ······································86
<그림 Ⅳ-8> 코로나19 이후 임금인상, 복리후생 등에 대한 요구 어려움 ·····················86
<그림 Ⅳ-9> 노조활동 위축(노조가 있는 경우만) ··························································87
<그림 Ⅳ-10> 코로나19 이후 항목별 우리사회 변화의 동의 정도 ································89
<그림 Ⅳ-11> 코로나19 이전/이후 직업(직장)선택에 가장 중요한 기준 ·······················90
<그림 Ⅳ-12> 코로나19로 주변에 무인화 기술 도입 상점 증가 ···································90
<그림 Ⅳ-13> 코로나19로 주변에 플랫폼 노동자가 증가 ··············································91
<그림 Ⅳ-14> 코로나19로 정규직 일자리 감소 ·····························································91
<그림 Ⅳ-15> 코로나19로 주변에 재택근무 증가 ··························································92
<그림 Ⅳ-16> 코로나19 이후에도 비대면 근무 방식은 증가할 것임 ····························92
<그림 Ⅳ-17> 코로나19를 경험하면서 직장 선택에 가장 중요한 기준이 변함 ·············93
<그림 Ⅳ-18> 코로나19 이후 평생직장에 대한 사람들의 기대가 거의 사라짐 ·············93
<그림 Ⅳ-19> 코로나19는 노동자의 권익을 약화시켰음 ················································94
<그림 Ⅳ-20> 코로나19로 노동조합 활동이 위축되었음 ················································94
<그림 Ⅳ-21> 미래 노동사회 변화에 대한 전망 ····························································96
<그림 Ⅳ-22> 광범위한 디지털 기술 적용으로 일자리 감소 ·········································97
<그림 Ⅳ-23> 근로시간 감소로 인한 소득 감소 ····························································97
<그림 Ⅳ-24> 정규직 일자리 감소, 비정규직 일자리 증가 ············································98
<그림 Ⅳ-25> 투잡, 쓰리잡을 해야 생계유지 가능 ······················································98
<그림 Ⅳ-26> 앞으로 평생직장이라는 개념 자체가 사라질 것 ······································99
<그림 Ⅳ-27> 재택근무 등 비대면 업무가 증가 ····························································99
<그림 Ⅳ-28> 스마트기술 기반 노동통제 강화 ····························································100
<그림 Ⅳ-29> 비대면 기술 발전으로 사회적 관계가 약화 ···········································100
<그림 Ⅳ-30> 노사관계에서 노동조합 협상력 약화 ·····················································101
<그림 Ⅳ-31> 기술변화가 현재 나의 일자리를 기계로 대체할 가능성 ························102
<그림 Ⅳ-32> 노동사회 변화로 내가 가진 기술이나 지식은 쓸모없게 될 것 ·············103
<그림 Ⅳ-33> 미래 노동 변화에 대비하고 있는 정도 ·················································103
<그림 Ⅳ-34> 장래 노동환경의 변화에 대비하지 않는 이유 ·······································104
<그림 Ⅳ-35> 미래 노동환경 변화에 대한 준비 ··························································104
<그림 Ⅳ-36> 미래 노동환경 변화에 대한 준비: 새로운 분야의 기술 학습 ···············105
<그림 Ⅳ-37> 코로나19 이후 부산시가 우선 실행해야 할 노동정책 ··························105
<그림 Ⅳ-38> 코로나19, 부산지역 주요 노동 변화(전문가 조사 결과) ·······················107
<그림 Ⅳ-39> 노동의 미래에 대비한 부산시 노동 정책에 관한 전문가 IPA분석 ·······108
<그림 Ⅴ-1> 부산광역시 노동정책 기본계획 ································································115
<그림 Ⅴ-2> ILO의 일의 미래를 위한 인간 중심 의제 ···············································117
<그림 Ⅴ-3> 부산시 노동의 미래 의제별 주요 과제 ···················································121
<그림 Ⅴ-4> 싱가포르 SSG(SkillsFuture Singapore) 생애주기별 지원내용 ·············125
<그림 Ⅴ-5> 부산노동권익센터 청소년 노동인권 강사 간담회 ·····································126
<그림 Ⅴ-6> 볼로냐의 배달노동자 ···············································································132
<그림 Ⅴ-7> 경기도 생활임금 지급 확약서 ·································································136
<그림 Ⅴ-8> 고용안정 선제대응 패키지 지원사업 개요 ···············································140
<그림 Ⅴ-9> 부울경 메가시티 거점으로서 부산 ···························································141
<그림 Ⅵ-1> 노동의 미래에 대비한 부산시 노동 정책에 관한 전문가 IPA분석 ·········143
