제1장 서론 ····························································································· 1
1. 연구의 필요성 및 목적 ·············································································· 1
2. 연구범위 및 연구방법 ················································································ 2
1) 연구범위 ································································································· 2
2) 연구방법 ································································································· 3
3) 연구의 흐름 ··························································································· 4
제2장 기후변화 현황 및 폭염피해·대응 ········································ 6
1. 폭염에 대한 이해 ······················································································· 6
1) 폭염의 정의 ··························································································· 6
2) 폭염특보 ································································································· 7
2. 기후변화 및 국내·외 폭염발생·피해 현황 ··············································· 8
1) 기후변화 현황 ······················································································· 8
2) 국내·외 폭염발생·피해 현황 ······························································ 13
3. 국내·외 폭염대응 현황 ············································································ 17
1) 국내 폭염대응 현황 ············································································ 17
2) 해외 폭염대응 현황 ············································································ 20
제3장 부산지역 폭염 특성 및 폭염인식조사 ································ 22
1. 부산지역 폭염발생·피해 특성 ································································· 22
1) 부산지역 폭염발생 특성 ···································································· 22
2) 부산지역 폭염피해 특성 ···································································· 24
3) 기후인자와 폭염피해의 관계 ····························································· 27
2. 부산시민·전문가 폭염인식조사 ······························································· 32
1) 정보의 획득 ························································································· 34
2) 폭염에 대한 인식 ··············································································· 36
3) 폭염 시 행동요령 ··············································································· 37
4) 폭염대책 인지도 및 대책의 방향 ····················································· 38
5) 무더위쉼터 ··························································································· 39
3. 시사점 ········································································································ 41
1) 폭염피해 예방대책 수립 및 폭염특보 개선 ···································· 41
2) 폭염피해 저감을 위한 시설 확충·개선 및 지원사업 확대 ············ 41
3) 시민인식 향상 및 홍보를 위한 노력 ··············································· 42
제4장 폭염취약성평가 및 무더위쉼터 후보시설 선정 ················ 43
1. 폭염취약성평가 ························································································· 43
1) 기후변화취약성평가 ············································································ 43
2) 부산지역 폭염취약성평가 ·································································· 45
2. 부산지역 무더위쉼터 현황 및 후보시설 선정 ······································ 50
1) 지역별 무더위쉼터 현황 ···································································· 51
2) 무더위쉼터 취약지역 선정 ································································ 53
3) 무더위쉼터 지정 후보시설 선정 ······················································· 55
제5장 부산시 폭염대책 수립을 위한 정책제언 ···························· 63
1. 폭염특보 기준 검토·개선 및 폭염관리시스템 구축 ····························· 64
2. 무더위쉼터 확충 및 운영 개선 ······························································ 65
1) 무더위쉼터 확충 ················································································· 66
2) 무더위쉼터 관리체계 강화 ································································ 70
3) 무더위쉼터 개방성 확보 ···································································· 72
4) 무더위쉼터 이용 활성화 ···································································· 73
3. 폭염취약성평가 결과를 활용한 지역맞춤형 폭염대책 수립 ··············· 73
4. 실내·외 작업장 온열질환 대응체계 강화 ·············································· 76
5. 도시계획과 연계한 폭염대책 수립 ························································· 77
1) 도시기본계획 및 도시관리계획 등과 연계한 폭염대응방안 마련 · 78
2) 지구단위계획 및 개발계획 등과 연계한 폭염대응방안 마련 ········ 81
6. 도시 열환경 개선을 위한 공원·녹지 확충 ············································ 82
제6장 결론 및 기대효과 ··································································· 84
1. 결론 ············································································································ 84
2. 기대효과 ···································································································· 85
Abstract ································································································ 87
참고문헌 ······························································································ 89
부록 ······································································································ 96
<표 Ⅱ-1> 해외 국가별 폭염발생·피해 현황 ················································ 13
<표 Ⅱ-2> 부산의 역대 일평균기온, 일최고기온, 일최저기온 순위 ········· 17
<표 Ⅱ-3> 연도별 범정부 폭염대응 종합대책의 주요 내용(2015~2019년) ··
········································································································ 18
<표 Ⅱ-4> 연도별 부산시 폭염대응 종합대책의 주요 내용(2015~2019년) ··
······································································································ 19
<표 Ⅱ-5> 해외 주요 국가의 폭염대응 현황 ················································ 20
<표 Ⅲ-1> 최근 30년(1989~2018년) 전국 및 부산지역 폭염일수 및
열대야일수 순위 ············································································· 23
<표 Ⅲ-2> 최근 30년(1989~2018년) 특·광역시 열대야일수 순위 ··········· 23
<표 Ⅲ-3> 폭염과 온열질환자 발생의 일치성 평가를 위한 척도 ·············· 30
<표 Ⅲ-4> 폭염과 온열질환자 발생의 일치 횟수(2019년 7~8월) ············· 30
<표 Ⅲ-5> 폭염과 온열질환자 발생의 일치성 평가 결과 ··························· 30
<표 Ⅲ-6> 예측 선행시간에 따른 예측 시간 ················································ 32
<표 Ⅲ-7> 설문조사 대상별 조사영역 및 내용 ············································ 33
<표 Ⅲ-8> 설문조사 대상별 폭염으로부터 안전하지 않다고 느끼는 이유 ···
········································································································ 37
<표 Ⅲ-9> 설문조사 대상별 무더위쉼터 이용 빈도 ···································· 39
<표 Ⅳ-1> 부산지역 폭염취약성평가를 위한 인자 및 정의 ····················· 47
<표 Ⅳ-2> 폭염취약성 등급별 행정동 개수 및 비율 ··································· 50
<표 Ⅳ-3> 선정된 무더위쉼터 취약지역의 무더위쉼터 현황 ····················· 55
<표 Ⅳ-4> 금정구 선두구동 지역별 무더위쉼터 지정 후보시설 ················ 56
<표 Ⅳ-5> 서구 암남동 지역별 무더위쉼터 지정 후보시설 ······················· 57
<표 Ⅳ-6> 강서구 대저1동 지역별 무더위쉼터 지정 후보시설 ················· 58
<표 Ⅳ-7> 강서구 대저2동 지역별 무더위쉼터 지정 후보시설 ················· 59
<표 Ⅳ-8> 강서구 강동동 지역별 무더위쉼터 지정 후보시설 ··················· 60
<표 Ⅳ-9> 강서구 가락동 지역별 무더위쉼터 지정 후보시설 ··················· 61
<표 Ⅳ-10> 강서구 가덕도동 지역별 무더위쉼터 지정 후보시설 ·············· 62
<표 Ⅴ-1> 분석에 따른 결과 및 시사점, 이에 대한 대응방안 ·················· 63
<표 Ⅴ-2> 사상구 모라3동의 인자별 평가 결과(예시) ································ 74
<표 Ⅴ-3> 실내·외 작업장에서의 폭염대책의 법적 근거 ···························· 76
<표 Ⅴ-4> 「도시·군기본계획수립지침」 내 도시 열환경 개선 관련 사항 · 79
<표 Ⅴ-5> 「도시·군관리계획수립지침」 내 도시 열환경 개선 관련 사항 · 79
<표 Ⅴ-6> 「지구단위계획수립지침」 내 도시 열환경 개선 관련 사항 ······ 81
<표 부록-1> 무더위쉼터 이용객 설문조사 수행 쉼터 목록 및 현황 ······ 130
<표 부록-2> 본 연구에서 적용된 점수 척도의 해석 기준 ······················· 132
<표 부록-3> 폭염취약성평가를 위한 인자별 가중치 ································ 132
<표 부록-4> 금정구 선두구동 무더위쉼터 현황 ········································ 133
<표 부록-5> 금정구 선두구동 지역별 취약계층 현황 ······························· 133
<표 부록-6> 서구 암남동 무더위쉼터 현황 ················································ 133
<표 부록-7> 서구 암남동 지역별 취약계층 현황 ······································ 133
<표 부록-8> 강서구 대저1동 무더위쉼터 현황 ·········································· 134
<표 부록-9> 강서구 대저1동 지역별 취약계층 현황 ································ 134
<표 부록-10> 강서구 대저2동 무더위쉼터 현황 ······································· 135
<표 부록-11> 강서구 대저2동 지역별 취약계층 현황 ······························ 135
<표 부록-12> 강서구 강동동 무더위쉼터 현황 ·········································· 136
<표 부록-13> 강서구 강동동 지역별 취약계층 현황 ································ 136
<표 부록-14> 강서구 가락동 무더위쉼터 현황 ·········································· 137
<표 부록-15> 강서구 가락동 지역별 취약계층 현황 ································ 137
<표 부록-16> 강서구 가덕도동 무더위쉼터 현황 ······································ 138
<표 부록-17> 강서구 가덕도동 지역별 취약계층 현황 ···························· 138
<그림 Ⅰ-1> 연구의 흐름 ·················································································· 4
<그림 Ⅱ-1> 기상청 폭염특보 기준 ································································· 8
<그림 Ⅱ-2> 1850~1900년 지구 평균기온 대비 연별 평균기온 차이 ········ 9
<그림 Ⅱ-3> 우리나라의 기온 변화(1912~2017년) ····································· 10
<그림 Ⅱ-4> 과거 30년(안쪽) 대비 최근 30년(바깥쪽) 우리나라 계절 길이
변화 ······························································································ 10
<그림 Ⅱ-5> 연도별(1973~2018년) 전국 6~8월 평균기온 경향 ················ 11
<그림 Ⅱ-6> 연도별(1973~2018년) 겨울철 평균기온(좌) 및 최저기온(우)
변화 ····························································································· 12
<그림 Ⅱ-7> 부산의 평균기온, 평균최고기온, 평균최저기온, 강수량(1905~
2018년) ······················································································· 12
<그림 Ⅱ-8> 주요 10개 도시 1973년 이후 연도별 폭염일수(위),
열대야일수(아래) ········································································ 15
<그림 Ⅱ-9> 폭염에 의한 연별 전국 인명피해(좌) 및 재산피해(우) ········· 16
<그림 Ⅱ-10> 부산지역 연별 폭염·열대야일수 및 온열질환자 ·················· 16
<그림 Ⅲ-1> 최근 30년(1989~2018년) 특·광역시 연별 폭염일수 및
열대야일수 ··················································································· 23
<그림 Ⅲ-2> 부산지역 연도별 온열질환자 및 사망자 수 ··························· 25
<그림 Ⅲ-3> 2018년 구·군별 온열질환자 발생 현황 ·································· 25
<그림 Ⅲ-4> 2018년 부산지역 연령별, 장소별 온열질환자 발생 현황 ···· 26
<그림 Ⅲ-5> 기온과 습도에 따른 열지수 표 ················································ 27
<그림 Ⅲ-6> 2018년 7~8월 일최고/최저열지수, 일최고기온, 온열질환자
발생 추이 ···················································································· 28
<그림 Ⅲ-7> 예측 선행시간에 따른 기온, 습도, 열지수의 오차 분포 ······ 32
<그림 Ⅳ-1> IPCC 기후변화취약성평가를 위한 framework ····················· 44
<그림 Ⅳ-2> 부산시 행정동별 폭염취약성의 공간분포 ······························· 49
<그림 Ⅳ-3> 폭염대책기술의 설치비용과 체감온도 저하 효과 ·················· 51
<그림 Ⅳ-4> 부산지역 무더위쉼터 접근성의 공간분포 ······························· 54
<그림 Ⅴ-1> 현행 무더위쉼터의 문제점 및 개선에 따른 효과 ·················· 66
<그림 Ⅴ-2> 무더위쉼터 확충을 위한 지역별 주요 고려사항·대상 및 대상시설
······································································································ 67
<그림 Ⅴ-3> 간이 무더위쉼터 예시 ······························································· 69
<그림 Ⅴ-4> 폭염응급키트 ·············································································· 77
<그림 Ⅴ-5> 도시계획의 위계를 고려한 폭염대책 수립 ····························· 78
<그림 Ⅴ-6> 도심 내 녹지시설 예시 ····························································· 82
<그림 Ⅴ-7> 공원·녹지 기본구상 ··································································· 83
<그림 부록-1> 시민 설문조사 응답자 특성 ·················································· 96
<그림 부록-2> 일반정보 획득 경로 ······························································· 96
<그림 부록-3> (a)정보 획득의 충분성 및 (b)정보 획득 빈도 ··················· 97
<그림 부록-4> (a)과거 폭염상황의 변화 및 (b)미래 전망 ························· 97
<그림 부록-5> 폭염으로부터의 안전성 ························································· 98
<그림 부록-6> 더위 해소를 위해 (a)필요한 행동, (b)실제 행동, (c)주로
이용한 시설 ············································································· 98
<그림 부록-7> 냉방기기 사용 시기 및 사용 자제 이유 ····························· 99
<그림 부록-8> 부산시 폭염대책이 초점을 맞추어야 할 주요 대상 (a)계층 및
(b)지역, (c)가장 중요한 현재 부산시 폭염대책 ··············· 100
<그림 부록-9> 부산시 폭염피해 저감대책에 대한 인지도 ······················· 100
<그림 부록-10> 폭염피해 저감시설 및 지원사업에 대한 필요성 ··········· 100
<그림 부록-11> 응답자 집 주변 무더위쉼터 개소 수 ······························ 101
<그림 부록-12> 무더위쉼터까지의 이동시간(실제 및 적정) ···················· 101
<그림 부록-13> 무더위쉼터 이용의 제약사항 ············································ 101
<그림 부록-14> 무더위쉼터의 더위 해소 도움 정도 ································ 101
<그림 부록-15> 무더위쉼터 개선 필요 사항 ············································· 102
<그림 부록-16> 항목별 무더위쉼터 서비스 만족도 ·································· 102
<그림 부록-17> 부산지역 폭염취약성평가를 위한 인자들의 공간분포 ·· 103
<그림 부록-18> 폭염에 대한 (a)기후노출, (b)민감도, (c)적응능력, (d)영향의
공간분포 ·············································································· 106
<그림 부록-19> 부산지역 무더위쉼터의 공간분포 ···································· 107
<그림 부록-20> 전국 시·도 무더위쉼터 개소 수 및 밀도(좌), 냉방비 지원
비율(우) ················································································ 107
<그림 부록-21> 전국 시·도 무더위쉼터 당 인구 ······································ 108
<그림 부록-22> 부산시 구·군별 무더위쉼터 현황 ····································· 108
<그림 부록-23> 부산시 구·군별, 읍·면·동별 무더위쉼터 및 노인 인구 비 분포
······························································································ 108
<그림 부록-24> 금정구 선두구동의 무더위쉼터 및 주거지역 현황 ········ 109
<그림 부록-25> 서구 암남동의 무더위쉼터 및 주거지역 현황 ··············· 109
<그림 부록-26> 강서구 대저1동의 무더위쉼터 및 주거지역 현황 ········· 110
<그림 부록-27> 강서구 대저2동의 무더위쉼터 및 주거지역 현황 ········· 110
<그림 부록-28> 강서구 강동동의 무더위쉼터 및 주거지역 현황 ··········· 111
<그림 부록-29> 강서구 가락동의 무더위쉼터 및 주거지역 현황 ··········· 111
<그림 부록-30> 강서구 가덕도동의 무더위쉼터 및 주거지역 현황 ········ 112
<그림 부록-31> 금정구 선두구동 무더위쉼터 후보시설 전경 ················· 113
<그림 부록-32> 서구 암남동 무더위쉼터 후보시설 전경 ························· 114
<그림 부록-33> 강서구 대저1동 무더위쉼터 후보시설 전경 ··················· 116
<그림 부록-34> 강서구 대저2동 무더위쉼터 후보시설 전경 ··················· 119
<그림 부록-35> 강서구 강동동 무더위쉼터 후보시설 전경 ····················· 122
<그림 부록-36> 강서구 가락동 무더위쉼터 후보시설 전경 ····················· 125
<그림 부록-37> 강서구 가덕도동 무더위쉼터 후보시설 전경 ················· 127
