제1장 서론 ····························································································· 1
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 ·················································································· 1
2. 연구의 범위 및 주요내용 ·········································································· 2
3. 연구 수행절차 ····························································································· 3
제2장 부산광역시 인구현황과 함의 ················································· 4
1. 인구성장과 변화 ························································································· 4
2. 장래인구추계 ····························································································· 24
3. 부산시 인구변화 시사점 ·········································································· 30
제3장 국내외 인구정책 동향 ··························································· 32
1. 자연적 인구 정책 ····················································································· 32
2. 사회적 인구 정책 ····················································································· 34
3. 인구정책 진단 ··························································································· 45
제4장 인구정책 방향과 대응방안 ··················································· 46
1. 인구정책 추진방향 ··················································································· 46
2. 인구정책 비전 ··························································································· 47
3. 분야별 인구정책 과제 ·············································································· 49
제5장 결론 ·························································································· 85
참고문헌 ······························································································ 87
부록 ······································································································ 89
<표 Ⅱ-1> 전국 및 부산광역시 주민등록인구 추이 ······································· 5
<표 Ⅱ-2> 전국 인구의 자연적 증감 ······························································· 7
<표 Ⅱ-3> 부산시 인구의 자연적 증감 ··························································· 8
<표 Ⅱ-4> 전국 및 7대 도시 합계출산율 추이 ·············································· 9
<표 Ⅱ-5> 부산시 출생아 및 사망자수 추이 ················································ 11
<표 Ⅱ-6> 부산시·인천시 학생수 추이 ·························································· 12
<표 Ⅱ-7> 2018년 시도별 이동인구 ······························································ 13
<표 Ⅱ-8> 부산시 전입·전출인구 추이 ·························································· 15
<표 Ⅱ-9> 부산시 연평균 순이동인구(2000~2018) ····································· 16
<표 Ⅱ-10> 부산시 연령별 순이동인구 추이 ················································ 18
<표 Ⅱ-11> 전국 및 7대 도시 청년인구 구성비 ·········································· 20
<표 Ⅱ-12> 2020년 수도권 지표 달성 예상률 ············································· 21
<표 Ⅱ-13> 시도별 추계인구 및 인구증가율 ················································ 27
<표 Ⅱ-14> 부산시 연령계층별 장래인구추계 ·············································· 29
<표 Ⅲ-1> 수도권 목표인구 ············································································ 36
<표 Ⅳ-1> 인구정책 과제 총괄 ······································································ 49
<표 Ⅳ-2> 부산 추가 이전이 거론되는 공공기관 ········································ 57
<표 Ⅳ-3> 마포 청년혁신타운 공간구성(안) ················································· 61
<표 Ⅳ-4> 청년통계 사례 ················································································ 68
<표 Ⅳ-5> 인구조례 사례 ················································································ 71
<그림 Ⅰ-1> 연구흐름도 ···················································································· 3
<그림 Ⅱ-1> 전국 및 부산시 인구추이 ··························································· 6
<그림 Ⅱ-2> 전국 인구의 자연적 증감 ··························································· 7
<그림 Ⅱ-3> 부산시 인구의 자연적 증감 ························································ 9
<그림 Ⅱ-4> 전국 및 7대 도시 합계출산율 추이 ········································ 10
<그림 Ⅱ-5> 부산시 출생아 및 사망자수 추이 ············································ 11
<그림 Ⅱ-6> 부산시·인천시 학생수 추이 ······················································ 12
<그림 Ⅱ-7> 전국 인구의 사회적 증감(순이동자수) ···································· 14
<그림 Ⅱ-8> 부산시 전입·전출인구 추이 ······················································ 15
<그림 Ⅱ-9> 부산시 연평균 순이동인구(2000~2018) ·································· 17
<그림 Ⅱ-10> 부산시 연령계층별 순이동인구 추이 ···································· 19
<그림 Ⅱ-11> 부산시 청년층 유출 사유(2018) ············································ 19
<그림 Ⅱ-12> 누적 택지공급량 ······································································ 21
<그림 Ⅱ-13> 부산대도시권 택지개발 현황 ················································· 23
<그림 Ⅱ-14> 부산대도시권 산업단지 현황 ················································· 23
<그림 Ⅱ-15> 부산대도시권 통근·통학 인구 ················································ 24
<그림 Ⅱ-16> 7대 특·광역시 및 세종시 인구피라미드 비교 ····················· 25
<그림 Ⅱ-17> 전국 인구증가율 ······································································ 28
<그림 Ⅱ-18> 부산시 장래인구추계(중위추계) ············································· 28
<그림 Ⅱ-19> 부산시 연령계층별 장래인구추계 ·········································· 29
<그림 Ⅱ-20> 부산시 인구구조 변화(2030, 2040) ······································ 30
<그림 Ⅲ-1> 균형발전총괄지표 구성 및 지역차등지원 개념도 ·················· 35
<그림 Ⅲ-2> 마을·사람·일자리 창생종합전략 ··············································· 38
<그림 Ⅲ-3> 판교신도시 인구추이 ······························································· 39
<그림 Ⅲ-4> 아마존 캠퍼스가 지역인구에 미친 영향 ································· 40
<그림 Ⅲ-5> 팩토리 베를린 구성 현황 ························································· 41
<그림 Ⅲ-6> 나가레야마시 인구 추이 ··························································· 43
<그림 Ⅲ-7> 리브고슈 일원 개발 ··································································· 44
<그림 Ⅳ-1> 인구정책 추진방향 ····································································· 47
<그림 Ⅳ-2> 인구정책 비전 체계 ··································································· 48
<그림 Ⅳ-3> 2단계 균형발전정책 정책비전과 과제 ···································· 51
<그림 Ⅳ-4> 경상북도 청년유입지원단 T/F 조직도 ··································· 53
<그림 Ⅳ-5> 영도일원 현황 ············································································ 56
<그림 Ⅳ-6> STEM 빌리지 조감도 ································································ 56
<그림 Ⅳ-7> 부산시 창업공간 분포 현황 ····················································· 60
<그림 Ⅳ-8> 기장·장안 일원 산업단지 현황 및 입지대상지 ······················ 63
<그림 Ⅳ-9> 부산시 자치구별 1인당 용도지역현황 ···································· 64
<그림 Ⅳ-10> 입지대상지 ················································································ 64
<그림 Ⅳ-11> 부산시 청년(18-34세) 밀도분포 ············································ 69
<그림 Ⅳ-12> 루이지애나 미술관 ·································································· 76
<그림 Ⅳ-13> 나가레야마시 캐치프레이즈 ··················································· 77
<그림 Ⅳ-14> 공공실버주택 개념도(예시) ····················································· 79
<그림 Ⅳ-15> 금사 도시재생 뉴딜사업 ························································· 82
<그림 Ⅳ-16> 츄부 시니어대학 액티브 어게인 칼리지 ······························· 84
