제1장 서 론 ··············································································· 1
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 ····························································· 1
2. 연구내용 및 연구방법 ··························································· 3
1) 연구내용 ············································································ 3
2) 연구방법 ············································································ 3
3) 연구추진체계 ····································································· 4
제2장 재난관리체계 ································································ 7
1. 재난관리 ·················································································· 7
1) 재난관리의 정의 ······························································· 7
2) 재난관리의 단계 ······························································· 7
3) 재난관리의 원칙 ······························································· 8
2. 우리나라 재난관리체계 및 법정계획 ································· 10
제3장 재난위험도평가 ···························································· 11
1. 위험도평가 ············································································ 11
2. 재난위험도평가 사례 ··························································· 13
1) 국내 사례 ········································································ 13
2) 국외 사례 ········································································ 17
3. 시사점 ···················································································· 24
1) 행정안전부 지역안전지수 ·············································· 24
2) 타 국내외 사례 ······························································· 25
제4장 부산광역시 재난발생현황 ········································· 27
1. 주요재난 발생현황 ······························································· 27
2. 자연재난 발생현황 ······························································· 29
1) 풍수해 ·············································································· 29
2) 지진 ·················································································· 31
3) 가뭄 ·················································································· 32
4) 설해 ·················································································· 33
5) 한파 ·················································································· 33
6) 폭염 ·················································································· 34
7) 기타 자연재난 ································································· 34
3. 사회재난 발생현황 ······························································· 35
1) 대형화재 ·········································································· 35
2) 감염병 ·············································································· 37
3) 가축전염병 ······································································ 37
4) 해양선박사고 ··································································· 38
5) 미세먼지 및 황사 ··························································· 38
6) 기타 사회재난 ································································· 41
제5장 부산광역시 재난위험도평가 ····································· 43
1. 재난위험도평가 방법 ··························································· 43
2. 재난식별 ················································································ 45
3. 재난위험도분석 ····································································· 46
1) 발생가능성 ······································································ 48
2) 영향(피해) ········································································ 50
3) 인자별 평가결과 ····························································· 56
4. 재난위험도평가 ····································································· 57
1) 가중치 산정 ···································································· 57
2) 영향(피해) 산정 ······························································ 58
3) 리스크 매트릭스 작성 ···················································· 60
4) 재난위험도 산정 ····························································· 61
5. 재난위험도평가 결과 및 시사점 ········································ 62
제6장 부산광역시 재난대비전략 구축방안 ······················· 65
1. 재난별 대비전략 구축방안 ·················································· 67
1) 감염병 ·············································································· 67
2) 미세먼지 및 황사 ··························································· 69
3) 풍수해 ·············································································· 71
4) 원자력사고 ······································································ 75
5) 지진 ·················································································· 76
2. 통합 재난대비전략 구축방안 ·············································· 79
1) 방재계획의 위상강화와 실효성 향상 ························· 80
2) 주요 기반시설간의 연계 및 기능유지 ························· 82
3) 빅데이터 활용 ································································· 84
4) 대체재 확보 ···································································· 85
5) 협력적 방재 네트워크 구축 ·········································· 86
6) 재난안전 대응체계 구축 ················································ 88
7) 광역방재거점 조성 ························································· 89
제7장 결론 ··············································································· 91
Abstract ···················································································· 95
참고문헌 ·················································································· 98
부록 ························································································ 103
<표 Ⅳ-1> 부산시 주요재난 발생현황 및 피해규모 ················ 28
<표 Ⅳ-2> 재난별 발생빈도, 피해규모 순위 ···························· 29
<표 Ⅴ-1> 재난위험도평가를 위한 재난의 종류, 정의 및 범위
···················································································· 46
<표 Ⅴ-2> 재난발생가능성 평가기준 ········································· 48
<표 Ⅴ-3> 재난 1회 발생에 의한 인명피해 평가기준 ············ 50
<표 Ⅴ-4> 재난 1회 발생에 의한 경제적 피해 평가기준 ······ 52
<표 Ⅴ-5> 재난 1회 발생에 의한 환경적 피해 평가기준 ······ 53
<표 Ⅴ-6> 재난 1회 발생에 의한 사회적 피해 평가기준 ······ 55
<표 Ⅴ-7> 재난위험도 평가인자별 순위 ··································· 57
<표 Ⅴ-8> 재난위험도평가를 위한 단계별 인자의 가중치 ····· 58
<표 Ⅴ-9> 1단계 가중치에 따른 재난위험도 순위 ·················· 61
<표 Ⅵ-1> 부산광역시 재난대비전략 구축방안 ························ 66
<표 Ⅵ-2> 환경부 미세먼지 종합대책 ······································· 70
<표 Ⅵ-3> 선진국의 도시방재계획 제도 비교 ························· 80
<표 Ⅵ-4> 기반시설의 정의 ························································ 82
<표 Ⅵ-5> 부산광역시 특정관리대상시설 ································· 83
<그림 Ⅰ-1> 효율적 재난대비전략 구축을 위한 로드맵 ··········· 4
<그림 Ⅰ-2> 연구추진체계 ·························································· 5
<그림 Ⅱ-1> 재난관리의 4단계 ···················································· 8
<그림 Ⅲ-1> 위험관리의 과정 ·················································· 12
<그림 Ⅲ-2> 행정안전부 생활안전지도 ··································· 13
<그림 Ⅲ-3> 발생 가능한 대형재난에 대한 전문가 전망 분석
················································································ 14
<그림 Ⅲ-4> 우리나라 재난별 리스크 곡선 ····························· 15
<그림 Ⅲ-5> 서울시 자치구별 시설물 종합 화재위험도 ········ 16
<그림 Ⅲ-6> 서울시 배수분구별 풍수해 위험도 등급 ············ 17
<그림 Ⅲ-7> EPSON 통합위험지도(좌) 및 재난 클러스터 지도
(우) ········································································· 18
<그림 Ⅲ-8> 영국 재난위험도평가 예시 ··································· 19
<그림 Ⅲ-9> INFORM 위험지수 산정을 위한 요소 ················ 20
<그림 Ⅲ-10> 통합위험지도 작성의 예시 ································· 22
<그림 Ⅲ-11> 캐나다 AHRA 결과 예시 ··································· 23
<그림 Ⅳ-1> 풍수해에 의한 연별 인명피해 및 재산피해 ······· 30
<그림 Ⅳ-2> 풍수해 (a)건별 재산피해분포 및 (b)피해규모 순위에
대한 누적 피해규모 비 ·········································· 31
<그림 Ⅳ-3> 대형화재에 의한 연별 인명피해 및 재산피해 ··· 35
<그림 Ⅳ-4> 대형화재 (a)건별 재산피해분포 및 (b)피해규모 순위
에 대한 누적 피해규모 비 ···································· 36
<그림 Ⅳ-5> 부산시 권역별 (a)미세먼지주의보 발령횟수 및 (b)지
속시간 ······································································ 39
<그림 Ⅳ-6> 부산지점 (a)연 황사일수 및 이동평균, (b)연평균 월
황사일수 ·································································· 40
<그림 Ⅴ-1> 재난위험도평가를 위한 단계별 인자 ·················· 44
<그림 Ⅴ-2> 재난별 해당재난전문가 수 ··································· 47
<그림 Ⅴ-3> Box plot의 예 ······················································· 48
<그림 Ⅴ-4> 재난별 발생가능성에 대한 전문가인터뷰 결과 · 49
<그림 Ⅴ-5> 재난별 인명피해에 대한 전문가인터뷰 결과 ··· 51
<그림 Ⅴ-6> 재난별 경제적 피해에 대한 전문가인터뷰 결과 52
<그림 Ⅴ-7> 재난별 환경적 피해에 대한 전문가인터뷰 결과 54
<그림 Ⅴ-8> 재난별 사회적 피해에 대한 전문가인터뷰 결과 55
<그림 Ⅴ-9> 재난별 영향(피해)의 분포 및 평균 ····················· 59
<그림 Ⅴ-10> 부산지역 재난에 대한 리스크 매트릭스 ·········· 60
<그림 Ⅴ-11> 자연재난과 사회재난의 평가인자별 결과 비교 63