Ⅰ. 서론
1. 연구의 배경과 목적 ······································································ 3
2. 연구 방법 ······················································································· 4
3. 연구의 주요내용 ············································································ 5
Ⅱ. 부산의 진단
1. 개별지표를 통한 진단 ································································ 13
2. 동남권에서의 부산의 위상 ························································· 43
3. 세계도시에서의 부산의 위상 ····················································· 51
Ⅲ. 부산의 미래 예측
1. 미래트렌드 ··················································································· 64
2. 미래 시민의식 ············································································· 81
3. 도시 공간 시나리오 ································································ 109
Ⅳ. 미래 부산의 전략과 과제
1. 미래 전략 방향 ········································································· 133
2. 미래 선도 과제 ······································································· 136
3. 향후 연구 과제 ······································································· 150
Abstract 151
참고문헌 153
부록 155
<표 Ⅱ-1> 도시기반 평가지표 ···································································· 9
<표 Ⅱ-2> 경제 지표 ················································································· 10
<표 Ⅱ-3> 사회 평가지표 ········································································· 11
<표 Ⅱ-4> 환경 평가지표 ········································································· 12
<표 Ⅱ-5> 도시경쟁력 평가지표 비교 ···················································· 55
<표 Ⅲ-1> 예측과 시나리오의 차이 ························································ 69
<표 Ⅲ-2> 미래 메가트렌드 이슈 ···························································· 71
<표 Ⅲ-3> 부산지역에 큰 영향을 미치는 10대 트렌드 이슈 ·············· 75
<표 Ⅲ-4> 주요 트렌드가 공간변화에 미치는 영향 ······························ 75
<표 Ⅲ-5> 웹-소셜데이터 수집 채널 ······················································ 77
<표 Ⅲ-6> 조사 응답지역 분포 ································································ 82
<표 Ⅲ-7> 구조방정식 모델을 활용한 주요 선행연구 ························ 101
<표 Ⅲ-8> 구조방정식 모델에 사용된 변수 ········································· 102
<표 Ⅲ-9> 신뢰도 분석 결과 ································································· 103
<표 Ⅲ-10> 모델적합도 검증 결과 ························································ 106
<표 Ⅲ-11> 가설 검증 결과(2017) ························································ 108
<표 Ⅲ-12> 가설 검증 결과(2013) ························································ 109
<표 Ⅲ-13> 전형적인 프로젝트 일정(4개월, 16주 기준) ··················· 114
<표 Ⅲ-14> 대도시권 미래연구 관련 해외사례 ··································· 124
<표 Ⅳ-1> 동남권 광역발전 계획 현황 ················································ 137
<표 Ⅳ-2> 전국 지방자치단체 조합 운영사례 ····································· 139
<표 Ⅳ-3> 전국 비영리 민간단체 등록 현황 ······································· 142
<그림 Ⅰ-1> 연구 체계도 ··········································································· 6
<그림 Ⅱ-1> 동남권 및 부산의 인구 비중 추이 ··································· 15
<그림 Ⅱ-2> 부산의 인구 추이 ································································ 15
<그림 Ⅱ-3> 동남권 및 부산의 세대 비중 추이 ··································· 17
<그림 Ⅱ-4> 부산의 세대 추이 ································································ 18
<그림 Ⅱ-5> 동남권 및 부산의 시가화면적 비중 추이 ························ 19
<그림 Ⅱ-6> 부산의 시가화면적 추이 ···················································· 20
<그림 Ⅱ-7> 동남권 및 부산의 자동차등록 대수 비중 ························ 21
<그림 Ⅱ-8> 부산의 자동차등록 대수 추이 ··········································· 22
<그림 Ⅱ-9> 동남권 및 부산의 주차장면 수 비중 추이 ······················ 23
<그림 Ⅱ-10> 부산의 주차장면 수 추이 ················································ 24
<그림 Ⅱ-11> 동남권 및 부산의 GRDP 비중 추이 ······························ 26
<그림 Ⅱ-12> 부산의 GRDP 추이 ··························································· 26
<그림 Ⅱ-13> 동남권 및 부산의 취업자 비중 추이 ····························· 28
<그림 Ⅱ-14> 동남권 및 부산의 사업체 수 비중 추이 ························ 30
<그림 Ⅱ-15> 부산의 사업체 수 추이 ···················································· 31
<그림 Ⅱ-16> 동남권 및 부산의 금융기관 수 비중 추이 ···················· 32
<그림 Ⅱ-17> 부산의 금융기관 수 추이 ················································ 33
<그림 Ⅱ-18> 동남권 및 부산의 대학생수 비중 추이 ·························· 35
<그림 Ⅱ-19> 부산의 대학생수 추이 ······················································ 35
<그림 Ⅱ-20> 동남권 및 부산의 문화공간 비중 추이 ·························· 37
<그림 Ⅱ-21> 부산의 문화기반시설 수 추이 ········································· 38
<그림 Ⅱ-22> 동남권 및 부산의 의료기관 수 비중 추이 ···················· 40
<그림 Ⅱ-23> 부산의 의료기관 수 추이 ················································ 40
<그림 Ⅱ-24> 동남권 및 부산의 고령인구 수 비중 추이 ···················· 42
<그림 Ⅱ-25> 부산의 고령인구 수 추이 ················································ 43
<그림 Ⅱ-26> 동남권에서의 부산의 도시기반 ······································· 44
<그림 Ⅱ-27> 수도권에서의 서울의 도시기반 ······································· 45
<그림 Ⅱ-28> 동남권에서의 부산의 경제 ··············································· 46
<그림 Ⅱ-29> 수도권에서의 서울의 경제 ··············································· 47
<그림 Ⅱ-30> 동남권에서의 부산의 사회 ··············································· 48
<그림 Ⅱ-31> 수도권에서의 서울의 사회 ··············································· 49
<그림 Ⅱ-32> 동남권에서의 부산의 환경 ··············································· 50
<그림 Ⅱ-33> 수도권에서의 서울의 환경 ··············································· 51
<그림 Ⅱ-34> 도시의 지속가능 경쟁력 평가지표 ································· 53
<그림 Ⅱ-35> 세계 항만도시의 지속가능 경쟁력 평가순위 ················ 56
<그림 Ⅱ-36> 항만도시와 부산의 경제지표 비교 ································· 57
<그림 Ⅱ-37> 항만도시와 부산의 특허출원 비교 ································· 58
<그림 Ⅱ-38> 항만도시와 부산의 도시경쟁력 지표 비교 ···················· 59
<그림 Ⅲ-1> 미래 예측 연구 체계도 ······················································ 63
<그림 Ⅲ-2> 미래 메가트렌드 이슈 분석 ··············································· 74
<그림 Ⅲ-3> 미래 부산트렌드 이슈 분석 ··············································· 74
<그림 Ⅲ-4> 부산의 미래에 대한 광역권 연관 검색 키워드분석 결과79
<그림 Ⅲ-5> 부산의 미래에 대한 부산권 연관 검색 키워드분석 결과80
<그림 Ⅲ-6> 주요 시민 의견조사 내용 ··················································· 81
<그림 Ⅲ-7> 부산에 대한 인식 설문결과(2017년) ································ 84
<그림 Ⅲ-8> 부산에 대한 인식 설문결과(2013년) ································ 84
<그림 Ⅲ-9> 권역별 소득수준 ·································································· 85
<그림 Ⅲ-10> 공간의 쾌적성 설문결과 ·················································· 85
<그림 Ⅲ-11> 부산을 발전시켜온 중요한 요인 ····································· 86
<그림 Ⅲ-12> 권역별 부산을 발전시켜온 중요한 요인 ························ 87
<그림 Ⅲ-13> 과거 부산을 저해한 요인 ················································ 87
<그림 Ⅲ-14> 권역별 과거 부산을 저해한 요인 ··································· 88
<그림 Ⅲ-15> 현재 부산에서 시급히 해결해야 할 과제 ······················ 89
<그림 Ⅲ-16> 부산이 처해있는 문제를 극복할 수 있는 부산만의 장점
······················································································································ 90
<그림 Ⅲ-17> 부산의 향후 발전을 위해 가장 시급히 대응해야 할 분야
(2017) ··········································································································· 91
<그림 Ⅲ-18> 부산의 향후 발전을 위해 가장 시급히 대응해야 할 분야
(2013) ··········································································································· 91
<그림 Ⅲ-19> 부산이 향후 추구해야 할 가치 ······································· 92
<그림 Ⅲ-20> 성별 부산이 향후 추구해야 할 가치 ····························· 92
<그림 Ⅲ-21> 연령대별 부산이 향후 추구해야 할 가치 ······················ 93
<그림 Ⅲ-22> 권역별 부산이 향후 추구해야 할 가치 ·························· 93
<그림 Ⅲ-23> 부산에서 살기 좋은 세대 ·············································· 94
<그림 Ⅲ-24> 권역별 부산에서 살기 좋은 세대 ··································· 95
<그림 Ⅲ-25> 부산에서 살기 좋은 계층 ················································ 96
<그림 Ⅲ-26> 권역별 부산에서 살기 좋은 계층 ··································· 96
<그림 Ⅲ-27> 현 주거지 선택 이유 ························································ 97
<그림 Ⅲ-28> 다른 지역으로 이주하고 싶은 의향 ······························· 98
<그림 Ⅲ-29> 이주 희망 이유 ································································· 98
<그림 Ⅲ-30> 연령대별 이주 희망 이유 ················································ 99
<그림 Ⅲ-31> 구조방정식 연구 모형 ···················································· 104
<그림 Ⅲ-32> 구조방정식 분석 결과 ···················································· 107
<그림 Ⅲ-33> 시나리오 플래닝의 두 가지 방식 ································· 110
<그림 Ⅲ-34> 사고의 물고기 모델 ························································ 111
<그림 Ⅲ-35> 시나리오 플래닝의 절차 ················································ 112
<그림 Ⅲ-36> 전형적인 시나리오팀 조직 ············································ 113
<그림 Ⅲ-37> 핵심이슈 선정 절차 ························································ 115
<그림 Ⅲ-38> 의사결정요소 도출 절차 ················································ 116
<그림 Ⅲ-39> 변화동인과 의사결정요소와의 관계 ····························· 117
<그림 Ⅲ-40> 변화동인 규명 절차 ························································ 118
<그림 Ⅲ-41> 시나리오 도출 절차 ························································ 118
<그림 Ⅲ-42> 변화동인 평가 매트릭스 ················································ 119
<그림 Ⅲ-43> 시나리오 쓰기 절차 ························································ 120
<그림 Ⅲ-44> 대응전략 수립 절차 ························································ 121
<그림 Ⅲ-45> 모니터링 세부 절차 ························································ 122
<그림 Ⅲ-46> 부산의 공간변화 시나리오 ············································ 125
<그림 Ⅲ-47> 부산의 미래발전을 위해 추구해야할 핵심가치 ·········· 126
<그림 Ⅲ-48> 시나리오별 발생가능성과 바람직한 정도 ···················· 127
<그림 Ⅲ-49> 시나리오별 가치 영향정도 ············································ 129
<그림 Ⅳ-1> 부산지역의 미래공간 비전 ··············································· 135
<그림 Ⅳ-2> 부산시로의 통근·학 인구(2015) ······································ 143
<그림 Ⅳ-3> 부산 인접도시로의 통근·학 인구(2015) ························· 144
<그림 Ⅳ-4> 동남권 산업단지 입지현황 ··············································· 145
<그림 Ⅳ-5> 부산시 주요 도로망 구축계획 ········································· 146
.<그림 Ⅳ-6> 부산시 주요 철도망계획 ················································ 147
<그림 Ⅳ-7> 동해남부선~경전선 급행철도 통합운영과 공영주차장 구상
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