Ⅰ. 서론
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 ···································································· 3
1) 연구 배경 ··················································································· 3
2) 연구 목적 ··················································································· 5
2. 연구의 범위 및 방법 ···································································· 6
1) 연구 범위 ··················································································· 6
2) 연구 방법 ··················································································· 6
3. 연구의 주요 내용 ·········································································· 7
Ⅱ. 회복탄력성에 대한 이해
1. 개념 ······························································································ 11
1) 회복탄력성 ··············································································· 11
2) 위기관리시스템과 회복탄력성 ··············································· 15
2. 기존 연구 동향 ··········································································· 16
1) 경제적 회복탄력성에 관한 연구 ··········································· 17
2) 사회적 회복탄력성에 관한 연구 ··········································· 20
3. 지역 회복탄력성과 분석틀 ························································· 23
1) 지역 회복탄력성 정의 ···························································· 23
2) 분석틀 ······················································································· 25
Ⅲ. 회복탄력성을 전제로 한 위기 극복 노력
1. 국외 사례 ····················································································· 36
1) 경제부문 ··················································································· 36
2) 사회부문 ··················································································· 38
3) 제도부문 ··················································································· 40
2. 국내 사례 ····················································································· 42
1) 경제부문 ··················································································· 42
2) 사회부문 ··················································································· 44
3) 제도부문 ··················································································· 46
3. 소결 ······························································································ 48
Ⅳ. 부산지역의 위기와 위기 대응 정책 현황
1. 위기 동향 ····················································································· 53
1) 경제적 위기 ············································································· 53
2) 사회적 위기 ············································································· 54
3) 위기 동향 주요 키워드 ·························································· 55
2. 위기 현황 ····················································································· 58
1) 경제부문 ··················································································· 58
2) 사회부문 ··················································································· 63
3) 제도부문 ··················································································· 76
3. 위기 대응 정책 현황 ·································································· 81
1) 경제부문 ··················································································· 81
2) 사회부문 ··················································································· 85
3) 제도부문 ··················································································· 89
4. 소결 ······························································································ 94
1) 위기 현황 ················································································· 94
2) 정책 현황 ················································································· 95
Ⅴ. 전문가 델파이 조사
1. 조사 개요 ··················································································· 103
1) 목적 ························································································ 103
2) 기간 ························································································ 103
3) 대상 및 방법 ········································································· 103
4) 응답자 특성 ··········································································· 107
5) 주요 조사 내용 ····································································· 108
2. 조사 결과 ··················································································· 109
1) 사회경제적 위기에 대한 분석 ············································· 109
2) 회복탄력성을 가진 사회에 대한 분석 ································ 124
3. 소결 ···························································································· 138
1) 사회경제적 위기에 대한 분석 ············································· 138
2) 회복탄력성을 가진 사회에 대한 분석 ································ 141
Ⅵ. 회복탄력성 증진을 위한 부산지역의 과제
1. 기본 방향 ··················································································· 145
1) 산업다양성과 혁신이 존재하는 도시 ·································· 145
2) 사회안전망이 구축된 도시 ··················································· 146
3) 시민들의 자발적 노력과 역량이 갖추어진 도시 ··············· 147
4) 시민들의 적극적 참여와 개방의 시정 기반 구축 ············· 148
2. 비전과 목표 ··············································································· 149
1) 비전 ························································································ 149
2) 목표 ························································································ 149
3. 주요 과제 ··················································································· 151
1) 사회적 가치와 도시경영 패러다임 전환 ···························· 151
2) 사회경제 혁신 기반 조성 ···················································· 158
3) 제도적 시스템 구축 ······························································ 163
Ⅶ. 결론 및 정책제언
1. 결론 ···························································································· 173
1) ‘불확실성’에 대한 대처능력 강화 ······································· 173
2) 도시발전의 새로운 패러다임으로서 회복탄력성 ··············· 174
3) 사회시스템의 ‘경계와 넘어서기’에 대한 이해 필요 ········ 175
2. 정책제언 ····················································································· 177
1) 부산지역의 회복탄력성 진단 및 실태 분석의 체계화 ····· 177
2) 지속적인 연구와 성과 공유 ················································· 179
3) 재난과 재해를 포함한 종합적인 연구 필요 ······················ 180
Abstract 181
참고문헌 183
부록 189
<표 Ⅱ-1> 회복탄력성의 정의 ·································································· 13
<표 Ⅱ-2> 경제적 회복탄력성에 관한 선행연구 ··································· 19
<표 Ⅱ-3> 사회적 회복탄력성에 관한 선행연구 ··································· 21
<표 Ⅱ-4> 지역 회복탄력성 개념 정의 관련 전문가 델파이 조사 결과
·································································································· 24
<표 Ⅱ-5> ‘지역 회복탄력성’의 ‘개념’, ‘특징’, ‘정책’ 정의 ··············· 25
<표 Ⅱ-6> 회복탄력성의 접근(OECD) ···················································· 26
<표 Ⅱ-7> 부문별 진단 세부 내용 ·························································· 31
<표 Ⅳ-1> 언론사 검색을 통해 본 주요 키워드 기사 건수 ················ 56
<표 Ⅳ-2> 부산지역 산업별 종사자 현황 ··············································· 59
<표 Ⅳ-3> 부산지역 청년층(15~29세) 시도 간 전출 변화 추이 ········· 62
<표 Ⅳ-4> 부산지역 생산가능인구와 고령인구 장래인구추계 전국 비교
·································································································· 65
<표 Ⅳ-5> 부산지역 경상소득·부채·자산·순자산액 7대 도시 비교 ····· 67
<표 Ⅳ-6> 부산시민의 시정참여 수준 ···················································· 76
<표 Ⅳ-7> 부산시민의 정치참여 수준 ···················································· 77
<표 Ⅳ-8> 부산시민의 정치항의참여 수준 ············································· 77
<표 Ⅳ-9> 부산시 산업다양성 관련 정책 현황 ····································· 82
<표 Ⅳ-10> 부산시 사회적 경제 관련 정책 현황 ································· 84
<표 Ⅳ-11> 부산시 일자리 관련 정책 현황 ··········································· 85
<표 Ⅳ-12> 부산시 형평·균형·포섭 관련 정책 현황 ····························· 86
<표 Ⅳ-13> 부산시 공동체 형성 관련 정책 현황 ································· 88
<표 Ⅳ-14> 부산시 사회적 자본 관련 정책 현황 ································· 89
<표 Ⅳ-15> 부산시 시민참여에 대한 개방·소통 관련 정책 현황 ······· 90
<표 Ⅳ-16> 부산시 시민역능성·협업 관련 정책 현황 ·························· 91
<표 Ⅳ-17> 부산시 공공부문 자원 관련 정책 현황 ····························· 92
<표 Ⅳ-18> 부산시 조례 현황 ································································· 96
<표 Ⅴ-1> 전문가 델파이 조사 응답자 특성 ······································· 107
<표 Ⅴ-2> 전문가 델파이 주요 조사 내용 ··········································· 108
<표 Ⅴ-3> 부산지역에 가장 큰 영향이 예상되는 사회경제적 위기 유형
순위 ························································································ 111
<표 Ⅴ-4> 부산지역에 지속적인 영향이 예상되는 사회경제적 위기 112
<표 Ⅴ-5> 부산지역 사회경제적 위기 극복 방안의 우선순위 ··········· 115
<표 Ⅴ-6> 부산지역 사회경제적 위기 유발요인 ································· 118
<표 Ⅴ-7> 물리적 위기가 부산지역 사회경제적 위기에 미치는 동의정도
································································································ 121
<표 Ⅴ-8> 물리적 위기가 부산지역 사회경제적 위기에 미치는 요인
································································································ 123
<표 Ⅴ-9> 부산시의 가장 부족한 지속가능한 도시체계의 조건 ······· 125
<표 Ⅴ-10> 부산시가 보완해야 할 지속가능한 도시체계를 위한 조건
····························································································· 127
<표 Ⅴ-11> 회복탄력성이 강한 도시로서의 부산시의 지향점 ·········· 129
<표 Ⅴ-12> 부산시의 위기 발생 시 중요 대처능력 ··························· 132
<표 Ⅴ-13> 부산시가 지향해야 할 회복탄력성이 높은 조직 형태 특성
····························································································· 133
<표 Ⅴ-14> 부산시가 지향해야 할 안정적인 사회의 지향점 ············ 136
<표 Ⅵ-1> 사회경제적 회복탄력성 지표 개발(안) ······························· 157
<그림 Ⅱ-1> 사회의 질과 회복탄력성 ···················································· 14
<그림 Ⅱ-2> 위기관리시스템과 회복탄력성 개념 비교 ························ 16
<그림 Ⅱ-3> 지역 회복탄력성의 4가지 차원 ········································· 18
<그림 Ⅱ-4> 회복탄력성 있는 도시로의 논의 ······································· 22
<그림 Ⅱ-5> 지역 회복탄력성 개념 정의 관련 전문가 델파이 조사 결과
······························································································ 24
<그림 Ⅱ-6> 회복탄력성의 접근(Arup and Rockefeller Foundation)
······························································································ 27
<그림 Ⅱ-7> 회복탄력성 구성요인 ·························································· 28
<그림 Ⅱ-8> 연구 분석틀 ········································································· 30
<그림 Ⅲ-1> 사례를 통해 본 주요 키워드 ············································· 48
<그림 Ⅳ-1> 경제적 위기 동향 ································································ 53
<그림 Ⅳ-2> 사회적 위기 동향 ································································ 55
<그림 Ⅳ-3> 부산지역 위기 동향 주요 키워드 분석 결과 ·················· 57
<그림 Ⅳ-4> 부산지역 소규모 사업체(1~49인) 비중 7대 도시 비교 · 58
<그림 Ⅳ-5> 부산지역 대규모 사업체(300인 이상) 비중 7대 도시 비교
···························································································· 58
<그림 Ⅳ-6> 부산지역 사회적기업·마을기업·협동조합 현황 7대 도시 비교
······························································································ 60
<그림 Ⅳ-7> 부산지역 고용률 변화 추이 ··············································· 60
<그림 Ⅳ-8> 부산지역 고용기회 7대 도시 비교 ··································· 61
<그림 Ⅳ-9> 부산지역 실업률 변화 추이 ··············································· 61
<그림 Ⅳ-10> 부산지역 청년층(15~29세) 시도 간 전출 변화 추이 ··· 62
<그림 Ⅳ-11> 부산지역 청년층(15~29세) 청년층 7대 도시 순이동률 비교
···························································································· 63
<그림 Ⅳ-12> 부산지역 생산가능인구와 고령인구 장래인구추계
(1990~2040) ······································································ 64
<그림 Ⅳ-13> 부산시민 인식조사 결과(출생아수 감소) ······················· 64
<그림 Ⅳ-14> 부산지역 경상소득·부채·자산·순자산액 변화 추이 ······· 66
<그림 Ⅳ-15> 부산지역 월평균 가구소득 현황 변화 추이 ·················· 66
<그림 Ⅳ-16> 부산지역 가구소득 및 근로·사업·재산·이전소득 현황 · 68
<그림 Ⅳ-17> 부산시민 인식조사 결과(주관적 귀속계층) ···················· 68
<그림 Ⅳ-18> 부산지역 국민기초생활보장 수급자 변화 추이 ············· 69
<그림 Ⅳ-19> 부산지역 국민기초생활보장 수급자 현황 7대 도시 비교
···························································································· 69
<그림 Ⅳ-20> 부산지역 사회보험 가입률 전국 비교 ···························· 70
<그림 Ⅳ-21> 부산시민 인식 조사 결과(5년 후 생활수준 기대) ········ 70
<그림 Ⅳ-22> 부산지역 기대수명 변화 추이 및 전국 비교 ················ 71
<그림 Ⅳ-23> 부산지역 65세 기대여명 변화 추이 및 전국 비교 ······ 71
<그림 Ⅳ-24> 부산시민 인식 조사 결과(지역민으로서의 자부심) ······ 72
<그림 Ⅳ-25> 부산시민 인식 조사 결과(지역민으로서의 정체성) ······ 73
<그림 Ⅳ-26> 부산시민 인식 조사 결과(일반인에 대한 신뢰도) ········ 74
<그림 Ⅳ-27> 부산지역 공공기관 청렴도 측정 결과 ···························· 74
<그림 Ⅳ-28> 부산시민 인식 조사 결과(기관 신뢰도) ························· 75
<그림 Ⅳ-29> 부산시민 평생교육 이수 희망 분야 ······························· 78
<그림 Ⅳ-30> 부산지역 자연재해 피해 현황 변화 추이 ······················ 79
<그림 Ⅳ-31> 부산시민 인식 조사 결과(자연재해에 대한 체감정도) · 80
<그림 Ⅳ-32> 부산시민 인식 조사 결과(인재에 대한 체감정도) ········ 80
<그림 Ⅳ-33> 정책부문별 예산 현황 ······················································ 99
<그림 Ⅳ-34> 정책부문별 세부 예산 현황 ············································· 99
<그림 Ⅴ-1> 전문가 델파이 조사 진행 과정 ······································· 104
<그림 Ⅴ-2> 부산지역에 대한 사회경제적 위기 유형 ························ 109
<그림 Ⅴ-3> 부산지역에 가장 큰 영향이 예상되는 사회경제적 위기 유형
순위 ····················································································· 110
<그림 Ⅴ-4> 부산지역에 지속적인 영향이 예상되는 사회경제적 위기
··························································································· 112
<그림 Ⅴ-5> 부산지역 사회경제적 위기 극복 방안 ···························· 114
<그림 Ⅴ-6> 부산지역 사회경제적 위기 극복 방안의 우선순위 ······· 115
<그림 Ⅴ-7> 부산지역 사회경제적 위기 유발요인의 영향정도 ········· 117
<그림 Ⅴ-8> 부산지역 사회경제적 위기 유발요인 ······························ 118
<그림 Ⅴ-9> 물리적 위기가 부산지역 사회경제적 위기에 미치는 영향정도
···························································································· 120
<그림 Ⅴ-10> 물리적 위기가 부산지역 사회경제적 위기에 미치는 동의정도
·························································································· 120
<그림 Ⅴ-11> 물리적 위기가 부산지역 사회경제적 위기에 미치는 요인
·························································································· 122
<그림 Ⅴ-12> 부산시의 지속가능한 도시체계를 위한 조건별 중요도
·························································································· 124
<그림 Ⅴ-13> 부산시의 가장 부족한 지속가능한 도시체계의 조건 · 125
<그림 Ⅴ-14> 부산시가 보완해야 할 지속가능한 도시체계를 위한 조건
·························································································· 126
<그림 Ⅴ-15> 회복탄력성이 강한 도시로서의 부산시의 지향점 ······· 128
<그림 Ⅴ-16> 부산시의 위기 발생 시 대처능력별 중요도 ················ 130
<그림 Ⅴ-17> 부산시의 위기 발생 시 중요 대처능력 ························ 132
<그림 Ⅴ-18> 부산시가 지향해야 할 회복탄력성이 높은 조직 형태 특성
·························································································· 133
<그림 Ⅴ-19> 부산시가 지향해야 할 안정적인 사회의 지향점 ········· 135
<그림 Ⅴ-20> 부산시의 회복탄력성 증진을 위한 주체별 역할 중요도
·························································································· 137
<그림 Ⅴ-21> 부산시의 회복탄력성 증진을 위한 주체별 역할 우선순위
·························································································· 138
<그림 Ⅵ-1> 회복탄력성 증진을 위한 부산시의 기본 방향 ·············· 149
<그림 Ⅵ-2> 회복탄력성 증진을 위한 부산시의 비전·목표·과제 ······ 150
