Ⅰ. 서론
1. 연구배경 및 연구목적 ·································································· 3
2. 연구범위 및 연구내용 ·································································· 7
3. 연구방법 및 연구수행 ·································································· 8
Ⅱ. 기후변화의 고찰
1. 기후변화의 정의 및 대응 ·························································· 13
2. 국내・외 기후변화 주요 정책동향 ··········································· 18
Ⅲ. 부산지역의 기후변화 특성분석
1. 분석 틀 ························································································· 57
2. 기후변화 특성의 분석결과 및 고찰 ········································· 60
Ⅳ. 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 부산지역의 미래기후 전망
1. 분석 틀 ······················································································· 83
2. 미래 기후전망의 분석결과 및 고찰 ········································· 86
Ⅴ. 부산지역 기후변화대응에 관한 실태분석 및 과제 도출
1. 분석 틀 ······················································································· 135
2. 실태분석 결과 및 과제 도출 ··················································· 136
Ⅵ. 부산광역시 기후변화 완화부문의 정책적 대응
1. 정책 추진 기본방향 ·································································· 159
2. 기본방향별 정책적 대응 ·························································· 162
Ⅶ. 결론 및 시사점
1. 결론 ···························································································· 225
2. 시사점과 한계점 ········································································ 231
Abstract 233
참고문헌 237
부록
부록1. 한반도 기후변화 주요 영향 ··········································· 245
부록2. ‘국가 기후변화 표준 시나리오’ 적합인증 시나리오 ··· 246
부록3. 부산광역시 기후변화대응 종합계획 추진시책 목록 ···· 247
부록4. 시민 의견조사 설문지 ····················································· 250
부록5. 전문가 의견조사 설문지 ················································· 258
부록6. 부산지역 기후변화대응의 경제적 가치 ························ 268
부록7. 부산시민의 온실가스 감축행동 실천의 인과구조 ······· 275
<표 Ⅱ-1> 기후변화에 의한 사회자본에의 주요 영향 ·························· 15
<표 Ⅱ-2> IPCC 평가보고서의 주요 내용 및 효과 ······························ 22
<표 Ⅱ-3> SRES와 RCP시나리오별 2100년 CO2 예상농도 ················ 25
<표 Ⅱ-4> 교토의정서와 新기후체제의 비교 ········································· 28
<표 Ⅱ-5> 기후변화협약대응 제4차 종합대책의 추진분야별 추진사업
·································································································· 32
<표 Ⅱ-6> 기후변화협약대응 제4차 종합대책의 목표별 추진과제 ····· 33
<표 Ⅱ-7> 한반도 온실가스 연평균 농도 및 농도 증가 ······················ 41
<표 Ⅱ-8> 에너지 新산업과 기존 산업과의 비교 ································· 42
<표 Ⅱ-9> 에너지 新산업의 주요 사업 모델 ········································· 43
<표 Ⅱ-10> 한국의 자발적 기여방안(INDCs)의 주요 내용 ·················· 46
<표 Ⅱ-11> 부산광역시 온실가스 배출량 추이 ····································· 47
<표 Ⅱ-12> 부산광역시 기후변화대응 비전 및 추진전략 ···················· 48
<표 Ⅱ-13> 부산광역시 기후변화 적응대책의 추진목표와 추진내용 · 52
<표 Ⅲ-1> 부산지역 기상관측지점의 변화 ············································· 58
<표 Ⅲ-2> 기후현상 일수의 정의 ···························································· 59
<표 Ⅲ-3> 계절별 시작의 정의 ······························································ 60
<표 Ⅲ-4> 연대별 기온과 강수량의 평균값(1905~2014) ····················· 63
<표 Ⅲ-5> 연별 기온과 강수량의 최고 순위(1905~2014) ··················· 65
<표 Ⅲ-6> 연별 기온과 강수량의 최저 순위(1905~2014) ··················· 66
<표 Ⅲ-7> 110년간 평균기온・최고기온・최저기온・강수량의 변화율
(1905~2014) ·········································································· 66
<표 Ⅲ-8> 계절별 연평균기온・최고기온・최저기온값과 변화율(1905~2014)
··································································································· 70
<표 Ⅲ-9> 계절별 강수량 변화율(1905~2014) ······································ 71
<표 Ⅲ-10> 연별 기후현상 일수의 최고 순위(1905~2014) ················· 76
<표 Ⅲ-11> 연대별 기후일수의 평균값(1905~2014) ····························· 77
<표 Ⅲ-12> 연대별 계절 시작일과 기간의 변화 ··································· 79
<표 Ⅳ-1> RCP시나리오의 종류와 특성 ················································· 85
<표 Ⅳ-2> 구・군별 연평균 기온의 전망(RCP 4.5) ····························· 89
<표 Ⅳ-3> 구・군별 연평균 기온의 전망(RCP 8.5) ····························· 90
<표 Ⅳ-4> 구・군별 연평균 일최고기온 전망(RCP 4.5) ······················ 93
<표 Ⅳ-5> 구・군별 연평균 일최고기온 전망(RCP 8.5) ······················ 94
<표 Ⅳ-6> 구・군별 연평균 일최저기온 전망(RCP 4.5) ······················ 97
<표 Ⅳ-7> 구・군별 연평균 일최저기온 전망(RCP 8.5) ······················ 98
<표 Ⅳ-8> 구・군별 연평균 강수량 전망(RCP 4.5) ··························· 101
<표 Ⅳ-9> 구・군별 연평균 강수량 전망(RCP 8.5) ··························· 102
<표 Ⅳ-10> 구・군별 서리일수 전망(RCP 4.5) ··································· 104
<표 Ⅳ-11> 구・군별 서리일수 전망(RCP 8.5) ··································· 105
<표 Ⅳ-12> 구・군별 결빙일수 전망(RCP 4.5) ··································· 106
<표 Ⅳ-13> 구・군별 결빙일수 전망(RCP 8.5) ··································· 107
<표 Ⅳ-14> 구・군별 여름일수 전망(RCP 4.5) ··································· 109
<표 Ⅳ-15> 구・군별 여름일수 전망(RCP 8.5) ··································· 110
<표 Ⅳ-16> 구・군별 열대야일수 전망(RCP 4.5) ······························· 111
<표 Ⅳ-17> 구・군별 열대야일수 전망(RCP 8.5) ······························· 112
<표 Ⅳ-18> 구・군별 폭염일수 전망(RCP 4.5) ··································· 114
<표 Ⅳ-19> 구・군별 폭염일수 전망(RCP 8.5) ··································· 115
<표 Ⅳ-20> 구・군별 호우일수 전망(RCP 4.5)과 현재 기후값 대비 변화율
······························································································ 118
<표 Ⅳ-21> 구・군별 호우일수 전망(RCP 8.5)과 현재 기후값 대비 변화율
······························································································ 119
<표 Ⅳ-22> 구・군별 강수강도 전망(RCP 4.5)과 현재 기후값 대비 변화율
······························································································ 122
<표 Ⅳ-23> 구・군별 강수강도 전망(RCP 8.5)과 현재 기후값 대비 변화율
······························································································ 123
<표 Ⅳ-24> 계절길이 변화 전망 ···························································· 125
<표 Ⅳ-25> 구・군별 2020년대 연평균 기온・최고기온・최저기온・ 강
수량 전망(RCP 4.5)과 현재 기후값과의 편차 ················ 126
<표 Ⅳ-26> 구・군별 2020년대 연평균 기온・최고기온・최저기온・ 강
수량 전망(RCP 8.5)과 현재 기후값과의 편차 ················ 127
<표 Ⅳ-27> 구・군별 2021~2030년 극한 기후지수 전망(RCP 4.5)과 현
재 기후값과의 편차 ···························································· 129
<표 Ⅳ-28> 구・군별 2021~2030년 극한 기후지수 전망(RCP 8.5)과 현
재 기후값과의 편차 ···························································· 131
<표 Ⅴ-1> 부산광역시 온실가스 감축계획 대비 실적(2010~2013) ·· 137
<표 Ⅴ-2> 응답 시민의 주요 속성 ························································ 142
<표 Ⅴ-3> 응답자 속성별 부산지역 차원 기후변화 심각도의 응답특성
································································································ 145
<표 Ⅴ-4> 부산지역 기후변화정보의 확보상황 ··································· 149
<표 Ⅴ-5> 환경교육 수강여부별 기후변화 발생원인 인지 응답특성 151
<표 Ⅴ-6> 시정 정책추진과정에서의 고려 필요정도 ·························· 152
<표 Ⅵ-1> 항만에서의 온실가스 배출량 저감 대책 ···························· 167
<표 Ⅵ-2> 정부 및 지자체 지원사업 총괄 ··········································· 177
<표 Ⅵ-3> 비산업부문 온실가스 감축수단 총괄 ································· 179
<표 Ⅵ-4> 안산시 환경인증제 인증단계별 추진목표 ·························· 180
<표 Ⅵ-5> 응답자수별 CVR 허용 최소값 ············································ 184
<표 Ⅵ-6> 응답 전문가의 속성 ······························································ 188
<표 Ⅵ-7> 델파이 전문가조사 결과 ······················································ 190
<표 Ⅵ-8> 33개 온실가스 감축대책의 우선순위 평가 결과 ··············· 195
<표 Ⅵ-9> 온실가스 1인 1톤 줄이기 실천수칙 ··································· 207
<표 Ⅵ-10> 가정에서의 용도별 CO2 배출량 비교 ······························ 208
<표 Ⅵ-11> 부산광역시 탄소포인트제 추진현황 ································· 211
<표 Ⅵ-12> 최근 1년간 부산기후변화체험교육관 방문운영 ·············· 217
<표 Ⅵ-13> 폭염의 정의 및 기상청 특보의 기준 ······························· 221
<표 Ⅵ-14> 폭염 관련 질환의 증상과 응급조치 ································· 221
<그림 Ⅰ-1> 부산지역의 계절변화 ···························································· 4
<그림 Ⅰ-2> 부산지역 난방도일(HDD)과 냉방도일(CDD)의 시계열 변화
································································································ 5
<그림 Ⅰ-3> 연구수행 체계도 ···································································· 9
<그림 Ⅱ-1> 지역의 자연・생활환경에 미치는 기후변화의 영향 ······· 14
<그림 Ⅱ-2> 기후변화 관련 완화대책과 적응대책의 관계 ··················· 17
<그림 Ⅱ-3> CO2 배출량과 농도의 변화 추이 ······································ 19
<그림 Ⅱ-4> 주요 국가별 온실가스 감축의무 목표 ······························ 20
<그림 Ⅱ-5> 교토메카니즘의 개괄 ·························································· 21
<그림 Ⅱ-6> 1850∼2012년 관측된 육지 및 해양을 결합한 전 지구 평균
온도 편차 ············································································· 24
<그림 Ⅱ-7> RCP시나리오별 2100년 CO2 예상농도 ···························· 25
<그림 Ⅱ-8> RCP시나리오별 연평균 지표온도 및 강수량 변화 ········· 26
<그림 Ⅱ-9> 제1차 기후변화협약 종합대책 체계 ································· 29
<그림 Ⅱ-10> 기후변화협약대응 제3차 종합대책의 추진목표와 추진사업
···························································································· 31
<그림 Ⅱ-11> 국가 녹색성장 3대 전략 및 10대 정책방향 ················· 34
<그림 Ⅱ-12> 효율적 온실가스 감축노력을 통한 저탄소사회 구축 방향
···························································································· 35
<그림 Ⅱ-13> 제2차 지속가능발전 기본계획의 비전 체계 ·················· 36
<그림 Ⅱ-14> 기후변화 관련 지표 및 목표 설정 ································· 37
<그림 Ⅱ-15> 2020년 국가 온실가스 감축전략 및 추진체계 ············· 38
<그림 Ⅱ-16> 2020년 온실가스 배출전망치 및 감축률 ······················· 38
<그림 Ⅱ-17> 7대 부문별 온실가스 감축목표 및 주요 이행 수단 ····· 39
<그림 Ⅱ-18> 한반도 이산화탄소(CO2) 농도변화 ································· 40
<그림 Ⅱ-19> 2009년 온실가스 배출전망(BAU) 결과와의 비교 ········· 44
<그림 Ⅱ-20> 2030년 한국 온실가스 감축목표 설정 ··························· 45
<그림 Ⅱ-21> 부산광역시의 온실가스 배출량 감축 목표량 ················ 49
<그림 Ⅱ-22> PDCA사이클에 준한 부산광역시 기후변화대응 종합계획
관리체계 ············································································ 50
<그림 Ⅱ-23> 제2차 부산광역시 녹색성장 5개년 추진계획의 비전 체계
···························································································· 54
<그림 Ⅲ-1> 부산지역의 지형 ·································································· 57
<그림 Ⅲ-2> 대청동 기상관측지점의 전경 ··········································· 58
<그림 Ⅲ-3> 월별 기온과 강수량의 평년값(1981∼2010) ···················· 61
<그림 Ⅲ-4> 연별 평균기온・최고기온・최저기온의 변화 시계열과 변화
율(1905~2014) ····································································· 63
<그림 Ⅲ-5> 연별 강수량과 강수일수의 변화 시계열과 변화율(1905~2014)
······························································································· 64
<그림 Ⅲ-6> 봄철(3~5월) 연별 평균기온과 강수량의 변화와 변화율
(1905~2014) ···································································· 67
<그림 Ⅲ-7> 여름철(6~8월) 연별 평균기온과 강수량의 변화와 변화율
(1905~2014) ······································································· 68
<그림 Ⅲ-8> 가을철(9~11월) 연별 평균기온과 강수량의 변화와 변화율
(1905~2014) ······································································ 68
<그림 Ⅲ-9> 겨울철(12~2월) 연별 평균기온과 강수량의 변화와 변화율
(1905~2014) ······································································ 69
<그림 Ⅲ-10> 계절별 평균기온・최고기온・최저기온의 변화율(1905~2014)
····························································································· 70
<그림 Ⅲ-11> 계절별 강수량의 변화율(1905~2014) ····························· 71
<그림 Ⅲ-12> 연별 폭염일수 시계열과 변화율(1905~2014) ··············· 72
<그림 Ⅲ-13> 연별 열대야일수 시계열과 변화율(1905~2014) ············ 73
<그림 Ⅲ-14> 연별 여름일수 시계열과 변화율(1905~2014) ··············· 73
<그림 Ⅲ-15> 연별 결빙일수 시계열과 변화율(1905~2014) ··············· 74
<그림 Ⅲ-16> 연별 서리일수 시계열과 변화율(1905~2014) ··············· 75
<그림 Ⅲ-17> 연별 강수일수 시계열과 변화율(1905~2014) ··············· 75
<그림 Ⅲ-18> 연별 호우일수 시계열과 변화율(1905~2014) ··············· 76
<그림 Ⅲ-19> 연대별 계절 길이의 변화 ················································ 78
<그림 Ⅳ-1> 고해상도 시나리오 자료 산출과정 ··································· 84
<그림 Ⅳ-2> 남한지역 시군구 단위 행정구역별 기후전망자료 생산과정
···························································································· 84
<그림 Ⅳ-3> 부산지역의 구별 위치와 지형 ··········································· 86
<그림 Ⅳ-4> 연평균기온 전망 ·································································· 87
<그림 Ⅳ-5> 기후변화 시나리오별 평균기온 전망 ······························ 88
<그림 Ⅳ-6> 기후변화 시나리오별 구・군 평균기온 전망 ··················· 88
<그림 Ⅳ-7> 연평균 일최고기온 전망 ···················································· 91
<그림 Ⅳ-8> 기후변화 시나리오별 최고기온 전망 ································ 92
<그림 Ⅳ-9> 기후변화 시나리오별 구・군 최고기온 전망 ··················· 92
<그림 Ⅳ-10> 연평균 일 최저기온 전망 ················································ 95
<그림 Ⅳ-11> 기후변화 시나리오별 최저기온 전망 ······························ 96
<그림 Ⅳ-12> 기후변화 시나리오별 구・군 최저기온 전망 ················ 96
<그림 Ⅳ-13> 연강수량 전망 ··································································· 99
<그림 Ⅳ-14> 기후변화 시나리오별 구・군 평균 강수량 전망 ········· 100
<그림 Ⅳ-15> 서리일수 전망 ································································· 103
<그림 Ⅳ-16> 결빙일수 전망 ································································· 106
<그림 Ⅳ-17> 여름일수 전망 ································································· 108
<그림 Ⅳ-18> 열대야일수 전망 ····························································· 111
<그림 Ⅳ-19> 폭염일수 전망 ································································· 114
<그림 Ⅳ-20> 호우일수 전망 ······························································· 117
<그림 Ⅳ-21> 강수강도 전망 ································································· 120
<그림 Ⅳ-22> 계절 사이클 변화 전망 ················································ 124
<그림 Ⅳ-23> 구・군별 기온・강수량・기후극한지수 전망(RCP 4.5,
2021~2030) ··································································· 131
<그림 Ⅳ-24> 구・군별 기온・강수량・기후극한지수 전망(RCP 4.5,
2091~2100) ··································································· 132
<그림 Ⅴ-1> 부산광역시 기후변화대응의 실태분석 틀 ······················ 136
<그림 Ⅴ-2> 기후변화 인지도 ································································ 143
<그림 Ⅴ-3> 지역별 기후변화 심각도 ·················································· 144
<그림 Ⅴ-4> 기후변화현상별 관심도와 중요도 ··································· 147
<그림 Ⅴ-5> 부산지역 생활에서의 체감 및 피해 우려 기후변화현상
··························································································· 148
<그림 Ⅴ-6> 응답 속성별 부산지역 기후변화 정보의 확보정도 ······· 150
<그림 Ⅴ-7> 기후변화 대책・프로그램 인지도 및 사회적・개인적 필요도
···························································································· 154
<그림 Ⅴ-8> 온실가스 감축을 위한 환경친화적 행동 실천도 ··········· 156
<그림 Ⅵ-1> 서울시 2030년 온실가스 배출량 감축목표 시나리오 ·· 163
<그림 Ⅵ-2> 서울시 원전하나줄이기 로고 ··········································· 165
<그림 Ⅵ-3> 부산광역시 수송부문 온실가스 배출량 ························ 166
<그림 Ⅵ-4> 서울특별시의 대기 및 기후환경 정보 제공 시스템 ····· 168
<그림 Ⅵ-5> 부산지역 기상과 대기 자료 관측지점 분포도 ·············· 169
<그림 Ⅵ-6> 지자체 온실가스 인벤토리 시스템 구축 절차 ·············· 171
<그림 Ⅵ-7> C40 정상회의와 도시환경협약 정상회의 ······················· 173
<그림 Ⅵ-8> AHP조사 분석 틀 ····························································· 186
<그림 Ⅵ-9> 델파이・AHP 조사를 통한 감축대책의 중요도 및 우선순위
평가 ····················································································· 189
<그림 Ⅵ-10> 평가기준의 상대적 가중치 ············································ 193
<그림 Ⅵ-11> 33개 온실가스 감축대책 가중치의 상대평가 ·············· 196
<그림 Ⅵ-12> 기후변화대책의 완화대책과 적응대책 ·························· 198
<그림 Ⅵ-13> 기후변화대응을 위한 신규 도입 가능 대책 ················ 200
<그림 Ⅵ-14> 교토시의 지구온난화 관련 계획 수행 체계 ················ 201
<그림 Ⅵ-15> 교토시의 지구온난화 대응 지역거버넌스 체제 ·········· 202
<그림 Ⅵ-16> 서울의 약속 이행 및 모니터링 체계 ··························· 203
<그림 Ⅵ-17> 부산광역시 가정부문 온실가스 배출량 ······················ 204
<그림 Ⅵ-18> 실천수칙 참여별 부산시민 온실가스 배출 감축 잠재량
························································································ 206
<그림 Ⅵ-19> 주요 가전기기별 CO2 배출량 비교 ······························ 208
<그림 Ⅵ-20> 서울시 ‘CO2 1인 1톤 줄이기’ 시민운동 캠페인 홍보물
·························································································· 209
<그림 Ⅵ-21> 온실가스 배출량 감축 新국민운동 ‘COOL CHOICE’ 210
<그림 Ⅵ-22> 부산시민의 온실가스 감축 행동실천의 구조모형 ······· 214
<그림 Ⅵ-23> 수원시 기후변화체험교육관의 운용 프로그램 ·········· 218
<그림 Ⅵ-24> 경기도 e러닝 온라인 환경교육 서비스 ······················· 218
<그림 Ⅵ-25> 지역 기후변화 설명자료와 실천참여를 위한 팜프렛 · 220
