Ⅰ. 서론 1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 ··················································································· 3 2. 연구내용 및 연구방법 ················································································ 4 Ⅱ. 부산시 인구 구조 및 이동 1. 부산시 인구 구조 ························································································· 9 1) 부산시 연령·지역별 인구 현황 ·································································· 9 2) 부산시 연령·지역별 인구 변화 ································································· 12 3) 부산·울산·경남 및 수도권 인구 변화 ······················································· 15 2. 부산시 인구 이동 ························································································ 18 1) 부산시 순전출자 수 추이 ·········································································· 18 2) 부산시 전출·전입자 수 ·············································································· 20 3) 부산시 연령별 전출·전입자 수 ································································· 23 3. 부산시 추계인구 ························································································· 25 1) 부산시 연령별 추계인구 ··········································································· 25 2) 지역별 고령인구 증가 ··············································································· 26 Ⅲ. 부산시 산업 집중도 및 고용 현황 1. 부산시 산업별 집중도 분석 ······································································· 31 2. 부산 및 7대도시 인적특성별 고용 현황 ·················································· 36 1) 부산시 및 7대도시 고용지표 현황 ··························································· 36 2) 부산시 인적특성별 취업자 수 ·································································· 36 3) 부산시 청·장년층 고용 현황 ····································································· 37 3. 부산시 고용률 추이 ···················································································· 39 1) 부산 및 7대도시 고용률 추이 ··································································· 39 2) 부산시 계층별 고용률 추이 ······································································ 40 4. 부산시 규모별 종사자 수 및 임금 수준 ·················································· 42 1) 부산시 규모별 사업체 수 및 종사자 수 ·················································· 42 2) 부산과 7대도시 규모별 사업체 수 비교 ················································· 44 3) 지역별·사업체 규모별 임금수준 ······························································ 44 Ⅳ. 일자리 변화와 인구 이동 간 인과성 검정 1. 선행연구 및 시계열 분석 ··········································································· 49 2. 사용 변수와 단위근 검정 ··········································································· 50 1) 사용 변수 및 통계 자료 ·············································································· 50 2) 단위근 검정 결과 ························································································· 54 3. 일자리와 인구 이동 간의 인과성 검정 ····················································· 55 1) 지역별 일자리와 인구 이동 간 인과관계 검정 ······································· 55 2) 부산지역 연령대별 일자리와 인구 이동 간 인과관계 검정 ·················· 62 4. 부산시 일자리 창출 결정요인 분석 ··························································· 68 5. 소결 ················································································································ 72 1) 지역별 일자리 변화와 인구 이동 간의 인과관계 ···································· 72 2) 부산지역 연령대별 일자리 변화와 인구 이동 간 인과관계 ·················· 73 3) 부산시 일자리 창출 결정요인 분석 결과 ················································· 74 Ⅴ. 결론 및 대응방안 1. 요약 및 결론 ································································································ 77 2. 정책적 시사점 및 대응방안 ······································································· 82 1) 정책적 시사점 ····························································································· 82 2) 대응방안 ······································································································ 84 Abstract 89 참고문헌 91

<표 Ⅱ-1> 부산 성·연령별 주민등록인구(2012년) 10 <표 Ⅱ-2> 부산 구·군별 주민등록인구(2011~2012년) 12 <표 Ⅱ-3> 지역별 베이비부머(1955~1963년생) 인구(2010년) 15 <표 Ⅱ-4> 부산지역 순이동자 수(2012년) 21 <표 Ⅱ-5> 부산 구군별 이동자 수(2011~2012년) 22 <표 Ⅱ-6> 부산전출 울산·경남 이동자 수(2012년) 23 <표 Ⅱ-7> 부산전출 수도권 이동자 수(2012년) 24 <표 Ⅱ-8> 부산시 연령별 추계인구(2015~2040년) 26 <표 Ⅲ-1> 부산시 산업별 집중도 분석(1995~2005년) 33 <표 Ⅲ-2> 부산시 산업별 집중도 분석(2006~2012년) 35 <표 Ⅲ-3> 15세 이상 지역별 고용현황 비교 (2013년) 36 <표 Ⅲ-4> 부산지역 인적특성별 취업자 수 변화 37 <표 Ⅲ-5> 청년층(15-29세) 지역별 고용현황(2013년) 38 <표 Ⅲ-6> 부산 및 7대도시 장년층 고용 현황(2013년) 39 <표 Ⅲ-7> 부산지역 사업체 규모별 수 및 총 종사자 수 43 <표 Ⅲ-8> 부산 및 7대 도시 규모별 사업체수, 총 종사자수(2012년) 44 <표 Ⅲ-9> 지역별, 사업체규모별 근로시간당 평균시급(2013년4월) 45 <표 Ⅳ-1> 지역별 고용률과 전출입비율의 단위근 검정 결과 54 <표 Ⅳ-2> 지역별 그랜저 인과관계 검정 결과 57 <표 Ⅳ-3> 부산지역 연령대별 고용률과 전출입비율의 단위근 검정 결과 65 <표 Ⅳ-4> 부산지역 연령별 그랜저 인과관계 검정 결과 66 <표 Ⅳ-5> 기초통계자료 분석 69 <표 Ⅳ-6> 노동 공급측 일자리 창출 요인 71 <표 Ⅳ-7> 노동 수요측 일자리 창출 요인 72

<그림 Ⅱ-1> 부산시 주민등록인구 추이(1992~2012) 9 <그림 Ⅱ-2> 부산시 20~40대 인구 추이 및 비중(1992~2012년) 13 <그림 Ⅱ-3> 부산시 장년층 인구추이 및 비중(1992~2012년) 14 <그림 Ⅱ-4> 부·울·경 주민등록인구 추이(1992~2012년) 15 <그림 Ⅱ-5> 부울경 20~39세와 50~64세 주민등록인구 추이(1992~2012년) 16 <그림 Ⅱ-6> 수도권 주민등록인구 추이(1992~2012년) 17 <그림 Ⅱ-7> 수도권 20~39세와 50~64세 주민등록인구 추이(1992~2012년) 18 <그림 Ⅱ-8> 부산전출 순이동자수 추이(1975~2012년) 20 <그림 Ⅱ-9> 부산시 연령별 추계인구(2015~2040년) 25 <그림 Ⅱ-10> 지역별 고령인구 증가 속도 27 <그림 Ⅲ-1> 부산시 산업별 집중도 분석(1995~2005년) 33 <그림 Ⅲ-2> 부산시 산업별 집중도 분석(2006~2012년) 35 <그림 Ⅲ-3> 부산 및 7대도시 15세 이상 고용률 추이(2000~2013년) 40 <그림 Ⅲ-4> 부산 및 전국 청년층 고용률 추이 41 <그림 Ⅲ-5> 부산 및 전국 여성 고용률 추이 41 <그림 Ⅲ-6> 부산 및 전국 장년층 고용률 추이 42 <그림 Ⅳ-1> 주요 시도별 고용률 추이 52 <그림 Ⅳ-2> 주요 시도별 인구유출입 비율 추이 53 <그림 Ⅳ-3> 부산지역 충격반응분석 결과 58 <그림 Ⅳ-4> 경남지역 충격반응분석 결과 59 <그림 Ⅳ-5> 광주지역 충격반응분석 결과 60 <그림 Ⅳ-6> 인천지역 충격반응분석 결과 61 <그림 Ⅳ-7> 대구지역 충격반응분석 결과 62 <그림 Ⅳ-8> 부산지역 연령대별(20, 30, 40대) 고용률과 인구전출입 비율 추이 63 <그림 Ⅳ-9> 부산지역 20대 충격반응분석 결과 67 <그림 Ⅳ-10> 부산지역 30대 충격반응분석 결과 67 <그림 Ⅳ-11> 부산지역 40대 충격반응분석 결과 68