경제·산업연구실 장정재

* 탄소중립·디지털 전환 가속으로 산업구조가 급변하는 상황에서 부산의 산업전략 재정립 필요성 제기됨

* 제조업 중심 지역경제는 에너지·자원 집약적 구조로 전환기 위험노출도 높음

* 글로벌 공급망은 저탄소·친환경 기준 강화되며 RE100·CBAM 등 규제가 수출 제조업에 직접 영향 미침(p.4~6)

* 부산 주력산업(조선·기계·자동차부품·화학)은 전 과정 탄소배출 큰 편으로 기술·설비 전환 부담 큼

* 반면 수소·전기추진선박, 친환경 소재, 재제조·순환 제조 등 신시장 확장 가능성 존재

* 산업별 탄소배출 구조 분석 결과, 부산 제조업 중 전환부담 가장 큰 업종은 금속·화학·기계 순으로 확인됨

* 기업조사에서 60% 이상이 탈탄소 대응 준비 미흡, 비용부담·기술부족이 주요 장애요인으로 나타남

* 부산은 에너지 효율·설비전환·연료전환 등 감축수단 적용 시 최대 30~40% 감축 잠재량 보유한 것으로 분석됨

* 정책적으로는 녹색기술 R&D, 친환경 인증 지원, 수소·전기 기반 산업생태계 구축, 중소기업 맞춤형 컨설팅 필요

* 디지털 기반 에너지관리, 스마트팩토리 고도화 등 디지털-그린 융합 전략도 핵심 대응 방향임

* 지역산업 재편을 위해서는 부산형 녹색전략산업(모빌리티·친환경 선박·순환경제·그린서비스) 육성 필요

* 제언은 장기 탄소예산 기반 산업정책, 공급망 전환 지원, 혁신인재 양성 등 구조적 접근 강화임

* 기대효과는 탄소규제 리스크 완화, 신시장 선점, 지역 제조업 경쟁력 회복, 지속가능한 산업체계 구축 등으로 요약됨

제1장 서론 ·············································································································1

1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 1

1) 연구배경 및 목적 1

2. 연구의 범위 및 내용 4

1) 연구 범위와 방법 4

2) 연구 내용 5

3. 선행연구와 본 연구의 차별성 6

1) 선행연구 사례 소개 및 본 연구의 차별성 6

제2장 그린 대전환 이슈 및 동향 ···········································································9

1. 그린 전환에 대한 이해 9

1) 개념 정의 9

2) 그린 경제의 출현 12

2. 그린 사회로의 대전환 15

1) 글로벌 그린 전환 움직임 15

2) 그린 관련 이슈의 부상 16

3. 글로벌 그린 대전환 이슈에 대한 주요국 동향 18

1) 종합적 추세 18

2) 주요국 동향 30

제3장 부산의 그린 전환 현황 ··············································································37

1. 국가 차원의 그린 경제로의 이행 37

1) 개념 정의 37

2) 정부의 그린 전환 정책 39

2. 부산의 그린 전환 대응 현황 41

1) 부산시 탄소중립·녹색성장 기본계획 41

2) 부산지역 현황 44

3) 부산의 그린전환 이행 노력 52

4) 부산의 그린기업과 그린제품 현황 54

x 3. 부산의 그린 전환과 탄소배출 및 경제성과의 관계 59

1) 목적 및 분석요인 관계 소개 59

2) 조사대상 및 분석방법 62

3) 분석결과 71

4) 시사점 76

제4장 그린 전환 촉진을 위한 대상과 방법 탐색을 위한 설문조사 ······················79

1. 조사 개요 79

1) 조사 목적 79

2) 조사 설계 및 표본 79

3) 자료 처리 및 분석 80

2. 1차 설문조사와 결과 분석 84

1) 개방형 설문조사 목적과 조사결과 분석 84

2) 1차 설문조사 결과에 대한 검증 85

3. 그린전환 영향과 정책 제안별 동의 87

1) 그린 전환에 영향 87

2) 그린 전환을 위한 정책 제안별 동의 89

4. 그린 전환기 부산지역 산업계 현황과 대응방안에 대한 설문조사 94

1) 조사 목적과 기대효과 94

2) 환경에 대한 평가 95

3) 산업계 현황과 당면과제 96

4) 그린 전환에 대한 전망과 발전 방향 102

제5장 부산의 그린 전환 추진과 정책지원 방안 ·················································109

1. 그린 산업 분야와 전망 109

1) 그린 산업 의미와 가속화 배경 109

2) 부산이 주목해야 할 그린 산업 분야 111

3) 그린 산업의 핵심 분야와 미래 대응 114

2. 그린전환 추진과 부산의 과제 117

1) 탄소규제에 대한 움직임과 그린전환 기대 117

2) 부산의 도전 과제 119

3. 정책 방향 123

1) 정책 수요에 대한 우선순위 설정 123

2) 정책 목표의 지향점 설정 123

3) 상시적으로 탄소중립 전환 기능 기업 발굴 124

4. 부산의 정책과제 125

1) 부산시 정책 125

2) 부산지역 기업의 역할 128

Abstract ···············································································································131

참고문헌 ···············································································································135

 <표 2-1> 말레이시아는 ‘국가 에너지 전환 로드맵(NETR)’의 주요 정책 ························································24

<표 2-2> 케냐의 국가온실가스감축목표(NDC) 및 기후변화행동계획(NCCAP) ···············································27

<표 3-1> 기후변화 대응을 위한 주요 국가의 탄소중립 정책 ··········································································42

<표 3-2> 2022년도 부산광역시 온실가스 감축 목표 ······················································································45

<표 3-3> 제1차 부산광역시 탄소중립 녹색성장 기본계획 목표배출량 ····························································47

<표 3-4> 부산지역 제조업 및 주력산업 주요 지표 ·························································································49

<표 3-5> 부산지역 주력사업의 사업체 및 종사자 현황 ··················································································50

<표 3-6> 부산지역 주력사업의 출하액 및 주요생산비 현황 ············································································50

<표 3-7> 부산지역 주력사업의 부가가치액 현황 ···························································································51

<표 3-8> 2024년 부산광역시 ｢친환경 에너지｣ 프로젝트 지원예정 사업 현황 ·············································52

<표 3-9> 부산의 그린제품 현황 ·······················································································································55

<표 3-10> 부산의 그린제품 현황 ·····················································································································57

<표 3-11> 기술통계 분석 ·······························································································································64

<표 3-12> 탄소배출과 신재생에너지 분석결과 ······························································································72

<표 3-13> 경제성장과 신재생에너지 분석결과 ······························································································74

<표 3-14> 수출과 신재생에너지 분석결과 ·····································································································76

<표 4-1> 조사설계 ············································································································································80

<표 4-2> 1차 및 2차 조사 내용 ·····················································································································80

<표 4-3> 1차 조사 결과 ··································································································································84

<표 4-4> 기업의 그린 전환에 영향을 미치는 요소의 상대적 중요도 ······························································87

<표 4-5> 기업의 그린 전환 분야의 상대적 중요도 ·························································································88

<표 4-6> 에너지 효율화 및 재생 에너지 전환 관련 정책에 대한 동의 정도 ·················································89

<표 4-7> 탄소 배출 및 온실가스 저감 관련 정책에 대한 동의 정도 ·····························································90

<표 4-8> 교육 및 홍보 관련 정책에 대한 동의 정도 ·····················································································91

<표 4-9> 지원 및 혜택 관련 정책에 대한 동의 정도 ·····················································································92

<표 4-10> 그린 전환기 부산지역 산업계 현황과 대응방안 ·············································································94

<표 4-11> 가장 시급한 환경 문제 ···················································································································95

<표 4-12> 그린 전환에 적합한 분야 ···············································································································96

<표 4-13> 산업계 주요 과제 ····························································································································97

<표 4-14> 그린 전환 과정에서 기업의 당면과제 ····························································································98

<표 4-15> 그린 전환을 위한 산업계의 중요 노력 ··························································································99

<표 4-16> 산업계의 탈탄소화 실현을 위한 정책 ··························································································100

<표 4-17> 산업계의 그린 전환을 위한 정책 ·································································································101

<표 4-18> 그린 전환의 발전 전망 ·················································································································102

<표 4-19> 그린 전환의 발전 전망 평가 이유 ·······························································································103

<표 4-20> 더욱 발전해야 할 그린 전환 분야 ·······························································································104

<표 4-21> 선행되어야 할 기관 간 협력 ········································································································105

<표 4-22> 그린 전환을 촉진할 수 있는 조치 ·······························································································106

<표 4-23> 탈탄소화를 위한 과학기술 혁신의 역할 ·······················································································107

<표 5-1> 그린 산업 분야 ·······························································································································113

<표 5-2> 그린전환 추진을 위한 부산의 과제 ································································································122

 <그림 1-1> 연구의 주요 내용 ·····························································································································5

<그림 1-2> 탄소중립 주제 관련 연구 동향 ········································································································6

<그림 2-1> 아시아지역 그린뉴딜의 일자리 창출과 투자액 ··············································································10

<그림 2-2> 대륙별 국가별 탄소배출량 ·············································································································11

<그림 2-3> 2022년 국가별 탄소배출량(221개국) ···························································································12

<그림 2-4> 그린 경제의 출현과 발전 ··············································································································14

<그림 2-5> 그린 전환의 유형 ··························································································································18

<그림 2-6> 중동 국가들의 재생에너지 비중 목표 ···························································································22

<그림 3-1> 그린 경제로의 이행 과정 ··············································································································37

<그림 3-2> 탄소중립 목표 달성을 위한 부문별 프로젝트 ···············································································38

<그림 3-3> 정부의 에너지정책 방향 中 목표 ··································································································40

<그림 3-4> 부산시 탄소중립·녹색성장 기본계획의 비전과 전략 ·····································································43

<그림 3-5> 국가 탄소중립 녹색성장 기본계획과 부산시 전략산업 개편 비교 ················································44

<그림 3-6> 부산·전국 산업구조 및 제조업·서비스업 비중 변화 ·····································································47

<그림 3-7> 부산광역시 산업 및 사업체 등록 현황 ·························································································48

<그림 3-8> 2021년도 부산지역 주력산업 비중 ·······························································································51

<그림 3-9> 부산시 암모니아특구 구역 및 선박 개념도 ··················································································54

<그림 3-10> 부산의 탄소배출량(2000-2021) ·······························································································65

<그림 3-11> 부산의 GRDP 추이(2000-2022) ······························································································65

<그림 3-12> 부산 15세-64세 고용율 추이(2000-2021) ··············································································66

<그림 3-13> 부산 최종에너지소비 추이 ···········································································································67

<그림 3-14> 부산 신재생에너지 생산량 추이 ··································································································68

<그림 3-15> 그리드 패리티 개념 ·····················································································································75

<그림 4-1> 자료의 처리 모형도 ·······················································································································81

<그림 4-2> 쌍대 비교 척도 구간별 정의 ·········································································································81

<그림 4-3> 기업의 그린 전환에 영향을 미치는 요소의 상대적 중요도 ··························································87

<그림 4-4> 기업의 그린 전환 분야의 상대적 중요도 ······················································································88

<그림 4-5> 에너지 효율화 및 재생 에너지 전환 관련 정책에 대한 동의 정도 ·············································89

<그림 4-6> 탄소 배출 및 온실가스 저감 관련 정책에 대한 동의 정도 ··························································91

<그림 4-7> 교육 및 홍보 관련 정책에 대한 동의 정도 ··················································································92

<그림 4-8> 지원 및 혜택 관련 정책에 대한 동의 정도 ··················································································93

<그림 4-9> 가장 시급한 환경 문제 ··················································································································95

<그림 4-10> 그린 전환에 적합한 분야 ············································································································96

<그림 4-11> 산업계 주요 과제 ························································································································97

<그림 4-12> 그린 전환 과정에서 기업의 당면과제 ·························································································98

<그림 4-13> 그린 전환을 위한 산업계의 중요 노력 ·······················································································99

<그림 4-14> 산업계의 탈탄소화 실현을 위한 정책 ·······················································································100

<그림 4-15> 산업계의 그린 전환을 위한 정책 ······························································································101

<그림 4-16> 그린 전환의 발전 전망 ·············································································································102

<그림 4-17> 더욱 발전해야 할 그린 전환 분야 ····························································································104

<그림 4-18> 선행되어야 할 기관 간 협력 ····································································································105

<그림 4-19> 그린 전환을 촉진할 수 있는 조치 ····························································································106

<그림 4-20> 탈탄소화를 위한 과학기술 혁신의 역할 ···················································································107

<그림 5-1> 부문별 글로벌 온실가스 배출량(2019~2022) ············································································110

<그림 5-2> 수소·암모니아 발전 기술 개요 ···································································································112

<그림 5-3> 글로벌 탄소 규제 이행 현황 ·······································································································118

<그림 5-4> 부산의 거버넌스 구축 ·················································································································127