서론 7 Part Ⅰ: 2013~2020 부산시 중장기 경제 전망과 재정 분석 Ⅰ. 부산시 거시경제 개관 ······································································ 7 1. 생산 부문 ···················································································· 7 2. 수요 ························································································· 10 3. 경기 부문 ·················································································· 14 4. 임금·물가 부문 ······································································· 17 5. 인구 ··························································································· 20 6. 고용 ························································································· 20 7. 금융 ··························································································· 22 8. 대외부문 ·················································································· 24 9. 재정 부문 ·················································································· 26 Ⅱ. 부산시 중장기 경제 전망 ······························································· 33 1. 모형의 개요 ··············································································· 33 2. 개별 방정식의 추정 결과 ··························································· 37 3. 모형의 추정결과와 미래예측 결과 ············································· 50 Ⅲ. 소 결 ····························································································· 54 Part Ⅱ: 중장기 재정 전망에 기반한 재정리스크 관리시스템 구축 Ⅰ. 지방재정 관리제도 ········································································· 57 1. 지방재정분석·진단제도 ····························································· 59 2. 지방채무 총액 한도제 ································································ 67 3. 지방재정 투·융자 심사제도 ······················································ 70 4. 지방재정 사전경보시스템 ··························································· 72 5. 2012 부산시 재정분석 결과 ······················································· 76 Ⅱ. 해외 사례 분석 ·············································································· 87 1. 미국 ··························································································· 87 2. 일본 ························································································· 111 3. 유럽 ························································································· 113 Ⅲ. 위기 관리 시스템 사례 ································································ 115 1. 재정 위기 관리 시스템: 재정 기준선 전망 ······························ 115 2. 조기경보지표의 활용을 통한 위기관리 ····································· 123 Ⅳ. 재정위험 관리시스템 구축에 대한 제언 ······································· 127 1. 재정 위험 유발 요인의 도출 ·················································· 127 2. 중기 경제 전망과 재정 기준선 전망 ········································ 131 3. IT기반의 재정위기관리시스템 구축 ········································ 132 4. 재정 총량 규율 상한(Safeguard Guideline)의 설정 ·················· 133 Ⅴ. 소 결 ··························································································· 139 결론 141 Abstract 143 참고문헌 14527

<표 1> 지방재정위기의 요인 3 <표 2> 부산시의 경제활동별 지역총생산 9 <표 3> 국세 대 지방세 비율 28 <표 4> 지자체 세입재원별 예산 비중 추이 28 <표 5> 부산시 세입 결산액 추이 30 <표 6> 2011년 부산시 세입 항목 31 <표 7> 부산시 세출 결산액 추이 31 <표 8> 2011년 부산시 세출 항목 32 <표 9> 사용된 변수표 정리 36 <표 10> 외생변수들의 미래 시나리오 50 <표 11> 재정분석지표의 분야별 측정요소 66 <표 12> 지방채무 총액한도액 결정 기준 69 <표 13> 2012년도 재정분석결과(전국평균) 77 <표 14> 2012년 지방재정분석 79 <표 15> 주요 자치단체별 재정분석 결과: 재정건전성 분야 80 <표 16> 부산시 재정분석 결과: 재정건전성 분야 81 <표 17> 주요 자치단체별 재정분석 결과: 재정효율성 분야 82 <표 18> 부산시 재정분석 결과: 재정효율성 분야 83 <표 19> 주요 자치단체별 재정분석 결과: 재정계획성 분야 84 <표 20> 부산시 재정분석 결과: 재정계획성 분야 84 <표 21> 주요 자치단체별 재정분석 결과: 참조지표 85 <표 22> 부산시 재정분석 결과: 참조지표 86 <표 23> 미국 지방정부의 재정위기 기준 90 <표 24> 일본의 조기건전화, 재정재생 기준 112 <표 25> 프랑스 공공회계국의 재정상황 분석지표 114 <표 26> 사회복지분야 국고보조사업과 대응 지방비 부담 129 <표 27> 지방채무 상환기간 구조 추이 130

<그림 1> 지역총생산 및 국민총생산 증가율 추이 7 <그림 2> 부산시 지역총생산의 전국대비 비중 추이 8 <그림 3> 산업별 국민총생산 대비 부산시 산업별 GRDP 비중 추이 9 <그림 4> 부산시 지출 유형별 GRDP 비중 추이 10 <그림 5> 부산시 민간소비지출 추이 11 <그림 6> 부산시 정부지출 추이 12 <그림 7> 부산시 설비투자증가율 추이 13 <그림 8> 부산시 건설투자증가율 추이 13 <그림 9> 부산시 산업생산지수와 기업경기실사지수 추이 15 <그림 10> 전국 산업생산지수와 기업경기실사지수 추이 16 <그림 11> 대형소매점 판매 추이 비교 16 <그림 12> 부산시 임금증가율 추이 17 <그림 13> 부산시 제조업 임금증가율 추이 18 <그림 14> 부산시 소비자물가 상승률 추이 19 <그림 15> 부산시 지가증가율 추이 19 <그림 16> 인구증가율 추이 20 <그림 17> 총취업자수 증가율 추이 21 <그림 18> 실업률 추이 22 <그림 19> 총여신증가율 추이 22 <그림 20> 총수신증가율 추이 23 <그림 21> 어음부도율 추이 24 <그림 22> 수출증가율 추이 25 <그림 23> 수입증가율 추이 25 <그림 24> 전국대비 부산시의 수출·입 비중 추이 26 <그림 25> 단체별 지방세목 구성 비교 29 <그림 26> 주요변수별 과거 자료 생성 과정 34 <그림 27> 지역내총생산 증가율의 실적치 및 예측치 51 <그림 28> 민간소비 증가율의 실적치 및 예측치 52 <그림 29> 총세입 증가율의 실적치 및 예측치 52 <그림 30> 총수출 증가율의 실적치 및 예측치 53 <그림 31> 총수입 증가율의 실적치 및 예측치 53 <그림 32> 지방재정 사전경보시스템 개요 75 <그림 33> 재정 기준선 전망 흐름도 131