제1장 서론 ·················································································································1
1. 연구 배경 및 필요성 ························································································1
2. 연구 목적 ·········································································································2
3. 연구 범위와 연구 방법 ·····················································································3
1) 연구범위 ······································································································3
2) 연구방법 ······································································································3
4. 연구의 차별성 ···································································································5
1) 선행연구 현황 ·····························································································5
2) 주요 선행연구와의 차별성 ··········································································6
제2장 국제통상환경의 변화 ························································································7
1. 글로벌 가치사슬 확대 배경 ··············································································7
2. 미-중 간 갈등과 디커플링 ·············································································10
3. 코로나19의 글로벌 가치사슬 영향 ·································································14
제3장 글로벌 가치사슬의 동향과 분석 ····································································16
1. 글로벌 가치사슬 분석방법론 ···········································································16
2. 부산지역 GVC 지수 산출 방법 ······································································22
3. 한국의 GVC 동향 ··························································································24
4. 부산의 GVC 동향 ··························································································29
제4장 글로벌 가치사슬의 재편 ················································································35
1. GTAP-VA 분석방법론 ···················································································35
2. 데이터베이스 및 시나리오 ··············································································40
3. 분석결과 ·········································································································44
제5장 결론 및 시사점 ······························································································50
참고문헌 ···················································································································55
<표 1-1> 주요 선행연구 및 차별성 ·················································································6
<표 3-1> 한국의 주요 산업별 GVC 지표 (%) ······························································25
<표 3-2> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 GVC 지표 ·····························································26
<표 3-3> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 화학산업 GVC 지표 ·············································26
<표 3-4> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 기계산업 GVC 지표 ·············································27
<표 3-5> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 철강산업 GVC 지표 ·············································27
<표 3-6> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 섬의류산업 GVC 지표 ··········································28
<표 3-7> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 운송장비산업 GVC 지표 ·······································29
<표 3-8> 부산의 주요 산업별 GVC 지표 ·····································································30
<표 3-9> 부산 지역의 대중국 및 대일본 GVC 지표 ····················································31
<표 3-10> 부산의 대중국 및 대일본 화학산업 GVC 지표 ···········································32
<표 3-11> 부산의 대중국 및 대일본 기계산업 GVC 지표 ···········································32
<표 3-12> 부산의 대중국 및 대일본 철강산업 GVC 지표 ···········································33
<표 3-13> 부산의 대중국 및 대일본 섬의류산업 GVC 지표 ········································33
<표 3-14> 부산의 대중국 및 대일본 운송장비산업 GVC 지표 ····································34
<표 4-1> 부가가치분해 활성화 GEMPACK 코드 ·······················································39
<표 4-2> GTAP-VA 모형에 포함된 글로벌 가치사슬 지표 ·······································39
<표 4-3> 국가 및 산업 재분류 ····················································································40
<표 4-4> 선행연구 시나리오와 분석결과 ·······································································42
<표 4-5> Shock Variables의 GEMPACK 코드 ························································43
<표 4-6> 베이스라인 시나리오 ······················································································43
<표 4-7> 시뮬레이션 시나리오 ······················································································44
<표 4-8> 베이스라인 시나리오 분석결과 (%) ·······························································45
<표 4-9> 한국의 산업별 베이스라인 분석결과 (%) ······················································45
<표 4-10> 부산의 산업별 베이스라인(VS) 분석결과 (백만 달러) ·································46
<표 4-11> 부산의 산업별 대중국 및 대일본 베이스라인(VS) 분석결과 (백만 달러) ···· 47
<표 4-12> 한국의 산업별 시뮬레이션 분석결과 (%) ····················································48
<표 4-13> 부산의 산업별 시뮬레이션(VS) 분석결과 (백만 달러) ·································48
<표 4-14> 한국의 대중국 및 대일본 산업별 시뮬레이션 분석결과 (%) ·······················49
<표 4-15> 부산의 산업별 대중국 및 대일본 시뮬레이션(VS) 분석결과 (백만 달러) ···· 49
<그림 3-1> 총수출의 부가가치 분해 ···········································································19
<그림 3-2> 국내부가가치 수출의 분해 ········································································19
<그림 3-3> 외국부가가치와 이중계상 항목 수출의 분해 ·············································20
<그림 3-4> 국제투입산출표와 국내지역투입산출표의 연계 ············································23
<그림 4-1> GTAP 데이터를 활용한 IOT 산출 ···························································37
<그림 4-2> 한-중-일 베이스라인(VS) 분석결과 (%) ····················································46
