제1장 연구개요 1
1. 연구배경 및 목적 1
2. 연구범위 및 방법 2
제2장 인구 및 지역내총생산 전망 5
1. 인구전망 5
1) 통계청 장래인구추계 개요 5
2) 우리나라 인구 7
3) 부산 인구 12
2. 지역내총생산 전망 21
1) 지역내총생산 전망체계 21
2) 국내총생산 23
3) 부산의 지역내총생산 24
제3장 세입전망 29
1. 세입전망 체계 29
1) 전망 세입항목 29
2) 시나리오 활용 29
3) 전망방법 30
2. 자체재원전망 35
1) 지방세 35
2) 지방세외수입 39
3) 자체재원 총계 40
4) 타대도시와의 비교 42
3. 이전재원전망 44
1) 지방교부세 44
2) 복지분야 국고보조금 45
3) 비복지 분야 국고보조금 49
4) 국고보조금 세입총계 50
5) 우호 시나리오의 세입전망 51
6) 자체재원 및 일반재원의 변화 52
제4장 세출전망 54
1. 세출전망 체계 54
1) 전망 세출항목 54
2) 시나리오 활용 54
3) 전망방법 55
2. 국가복지 및 보조사업 자부담분 58
1) 국가복지사업 자부담분 58
2) 기타 복지 보조사업 자부담분 61
3) 비복지 보조사업 자부담분 62
3. 기타 주요 세출 63
1) 구·군 조정교부금 63
2) 지방교육재정 법정전출금 64
3) 기본운영경비 및 의회비 67
4) 우호 시나리오의 전망 68
제5장 재정의 지속가능성 전망 70
1. 지속가능성 전망체계 70
1) 재정의 지속가능성 개념 70
2) 지속가능성 전망 방법 70
2. 지속가능성 73
1) 일반재원 대비 세출부담률 73
2) 재정수지 76
3) 재정수지의 민감도 분석 78
제6장 재정운용과제 모색 및 향후 연구 과제 85
1. 전망결과에 기초한 재정운용방향: 현실적 접근 85
2. 재정운용 과제 87
1) 사회·제도 변화를 감안한 세입확보 노력 87
2) 성과지향적 재정운용 89
3) 주기적 세출구조조정 91
4) 교육재정 거버넌스의 재정립 92
5) 부산시-구·군의 재정관계 재정립 94
3. 추가 연구과제 96
참고문헌 98
부록 99
<표 2-1> 전국 수준의 2050년 시나리오별 가정치 ·························································6
<표 2-2> 우리나라 전체인구 연평균 변화율 ····································································7
<표 2-3> 우리나라 생산연령인구 연평균 변화율 ·····························································8
<표 2-4> 우리나라 생산가능인구 비율의 변화 ································································9
<표 2-5> 우리나라 고령인구 연평균 변화율 ·································································10
<표 2-6> 우리나라 고령인구 비율의 변화 ·····································································11
<표 2-7> 우리나라 노년부양비 전망 ·············································································11
<표 2-8> 부산 전체인구 연평균 변화율 ········································································12
<표 2-9> 특·광역시 인구 연평균 변화율 ······································································13
<표 2-10> 부산시 생산연령인구 연평균 변화율 ····························································15
<표 2-11> 특·광역시 생산연령인구 연평균 변화율 ·······················································15
<표 2-12> 우리나라 생산가능인구 비율의 변화 ····························································17
<표 2-13> 부산시 고령인구 연평균 변화율 ···································································18
<표 2-14> 특·광역시 고령인구 연평균 변화율 ······························································18
<표 2-15> 우리나라 고령인구 비율의 변화 ···································································19
<표 2-16> 특·광역시 노년부양비 전망 ·········································································20
<표 2-17> GDP 성장률 등 국내총생산 관련 요인 ·······················································23
<표 2-18> 시·도 지역내총생산(명목) 변화율 ································································25
<표 3-1> 단위근 검정(지방세) ·······················································································30
<표 3-2> 지방세모형 추정결과 ······················································································31
<표 3-3> 단위근 검정(경상적 세외수입) ········································································32
<표 3-4> 경상적 세외수입 모형 추정결과 ·····································································32
<표 3-5> 4대 국가복지보조금의 추정 기준 ···································································34
<표 3-6> 부산시 지방세 연평균 변화율 ········································································35
<표 3-7> 부산시 지방세외수입 연평균 변화율 ······························································39
<표 3-8> 부산시 자체재원 연평균 변화율 ·····································································41
<표 3-9> 부산시 지방교부세 연평균 변화율 ·································································45
<표 3-10> 부산시 복지분야 국고보조금 연평균 변화율 ················································46
<표 3-11> 부산시 4대 국가복지사업 보조금 연평균 변화율 ········································47
<표 3-12> 부산시 기타복지 보조사업 보조금 연평균 변화율 ·······································48
<표 3-13> 부산시 지방교부세 연평균 변화율 ·······························································49
<표 3-14> 부산시 국고보조금 세입총계 연평균 변화율 ················································50
<표 3-15> 우호시나리오의 지방세 및 지방세외수입 연평균 변화율 ·····························51
<표 3-16> 자체재원과 일반재원의 시나리오별 변화 ·····················································53
<표 4-1> 4대 국가복지사업 자부담분의 추정 기준 ·······················································55
<표 4-2> 지방세입 기준 법정전출금 항목별 점유율 ·····················································57
<표 4-3> 학교용지일반회계부담금 및 무상교육경비전입금의 추정기준 ·························57
<표 4-4> 기본운영경비 및 의회비 범위 ······································································58
<표 4-5> 국가 복지사업 자부담분의 연평균 변화율 ·····················································58
<표 4-6> 국가 복지사업 사업별 자부담분의 연평균 변화율 ·········································60
<표 4-7> 기타 복지 보조사업 자부담분의 연평균 변화율 ·············································61
<표 4-8> 비복지 보조사업 자부담분의 연평균 변화율 ··················································62
<표 4-9> 부산시 구·군 조정교부금 연평균 변화율 ·······················································63
<표 4-10> 부산시 지방교육재정 법정전출금 연평균 변화율 ·········································64
<표 4-11> 부산시 기본운영경비 및 의회비 연평균 변화율 ···········································67
<표 4-12> 주요 세출항목의 연평균 변화율 ···································································68
<표 5-1> 자체세입 5% 감소의 일반재원 대비 적자 비율 ············································78
<표 5-2> 복지부담 5% 증가의 일반재원 대비 적자 비율 ············································81
<표 5-3> 자체세입 5% 감소 및 복지부담 5% 증가의 일반재원 대비 적자 비율 ·······83
<표 부록-1> 부산시 연도별 지역내총생산 전망치 ·························································99
<표 부록-2> 부산시 연도별 지방세 전망치 ·································································100
<표 부록-3> 부산시 연도별 지방세외수입 전망치 ·······················································101
<표 부록-4> 부산시 연도별 자체재원 전망치 ······························································102
<표 부록-5> 부산시 연도별 지방교부세 전망치 ···························································103
<표 부록-6> 부산시 연도별 복지 분야 의무복지 국고보조금 전망치 ··························104
<표 부록-7> 부산시 연도별 복지 분야 기타복지 국고보조금 전망치 ··························105
<표 부록-8> 부산시 연도별 복지 분야 전체복지 국고보조금 전망치 ··························106
<표 부록-9> 부산시 연도별 비복지 분야 국고보조금 전망치 ······································107
<표 부록-10> 부산시 연도별 전체 국고보조금 전망치 ················································108
<표 부록-11> 4대 국가 복지사업 자부담분 전망치 ····················································109
<표 부록-12> 국민기초생활보장 사업 자부담분 전망치 ···············································110
<표 부록-13> 기초연금 자부담분 전망치 ·····································································111
<표 부록-14> 무상보육 등 자부담분 전망치 ·······························································112
<표 부록-15> 장애인연금 자부담분 전망치 ·································································113
<표 부록-16> 기타 복지 보조사업 자부담분 전망치 ···················································114
<표 부록-17> 비복지 보조사업 자부담분 전망치 ·························································115
<표 부록-18> 부산시 연도별 구·군 조정교부금 전망치 ··············································116
<표 부록-19> 부산시 연도별 구대상 조정교부금 전망치 ·············································117
<표 부록-20> 부산시 연도별 기장군 대상 조정교부금 전망치 ····································118
<표 부록-21> 부산시 연도별 지방교육재정 법정전출금(총액) 전망치 ··························119
<표 부록-22> 부산시 연도별 지방교육세(전출) 전망치 ················································120
<표 부록-23> 부산시 연도별 담배소비세(전출) 전망치 ················································121
<표 부록-24> 부산시 연도별 시도세(전출) 전망치 ······················································122
<표 부록-25> 부산시 연도별 지방재정교부금보조금 전망치 ········································123
<표 부록-26> 부산시 연도별 학교용지일반회계부담금 전망치 ····································124
<표 부록-27> 무상교육경비전출금 전망치 ···································································124
<표 부록-28> 부산시 연도별 기본운영경비 전망치 ·····················································125
<표 부록-29> 부산시 연도별 의회비 전망치 ·······························································126
<표 부록-30> 부산시 연도별 기본운영경비 및 의회비 전망치 ····································127
<그림 2-1> 우리나라 전체인구 전망 추이 ·······································································8
<그림 2-2> 우리나라 생산연령인구 전망 추이 ································································9
<그림 2-3> 우리나라 고령인구 전망 추이 ·····································································10
<그림 2-4> 부산 전체인구 전망 추이 ···········································································14
<그림 2-5> 부산과 인천의 전체인구 규모 격차 ····························································14
<그림 2-6> 부산 생산연령인구 전망 추이 ·····································································16
<그림 2-7> 부산과 인천의 생산연령인구 규모 격차 ·····················································17
<그림 2-8> 부산 고령인구 전망 추이 ···········································································19
<그림 2-9> LOESS를 통한 연도별 성장률 계산 도식 ··················································22
<그림 2-10> 우리나라 국내총생산(명목) 전망 추이 ······················································24
<그림 2-11> 부산 지역내총생산(명목) 전망 추이 ··························································26
<그림 2-12> 지역별 지역내총생산 점유율 변화 추이 ···················································28
<그림 3-1> 중위 시나리오 상 부산시와 특·광역시 평균치의 지방세 변화율 비교 ·······36
<그림 3-2> 부산시 지방세 규모 전망 추이 ···································································37
<그림 3-3> 특·광역시별 지방세액 점유율 ·····································································38
<그림 3-4> 중위 시나리오 상 부산시와 특·광역시 평균치의 지방세외수입 변화율 비교 ··39
<그림 3-5> 부산시 지방세외수입 전망 추이 ·································································40
<그림 3-6> 중위 시나리오 상 부산시와 특·광역시 평균치의 자체재원 변화율 비교 ····41
<그림 3-7> 부산시 자체재원 전망 추이 ········································································42
<그림 3-8> 주요 대도시와의 지방세입 전망 비교(중위 시나리오 기준) ························43
<그림 3-9> 주요 대도시와의 지방세외수입 전망 비교(중위 시나리오 기준) ·················43
<그림 3-10> 주요 대도시와의 자체재원 세입 전망 비교(중위 시나리오 기준) ·············44
<그림 3-11> 부산시 지방교부세 전망 추이 ···································································45
<그림 3-12> 부산시 복지 국고보조금 총액 전망 추이 ·················································46
<그림 3-13> 부산시 4대 국가복지 보조금 총액 전망 추이 ··········································47
<그림 3-14> 부산시 기타 복지 보조금 총액 전망 추이 ···············································48
<그림 3-15> 부산시 비복지 분야 보조금 총액 전망 추이 ············································49
<그림 3-16> 부산시 국고보조금 총액 전망 추이 ··························································50
<그림 3-17> 지방세와 지방세외수입의 고위, 우호시나리오간 추이 비교 ·····················52
<그림 3-18> 세입항목별 점유율 변화(중위 시나리오) ···················································53
<그림 4-1> 4대 국가복지사업 자부담분 규모 추이 ·······················································59
<그림 4-2> 4대 국가복지사업 변화율 추이 ···································································60
<그림 4-3> 기타 복지 보조사업 자부담분 추이 ····························································61
<그림 4-4> 비복지 보조사업 자부담분 추이 ·································································62
<그림 4-5> 구·군 조정교부금 추이 ···············································································64
<그림 4-6> 부산시 지방교육재정 법정전출금 규모 전망 추이 ······································65
<그림 4-7> 학교용지일반회계부담금의 변화율 전망 ······················································66
<그림 4-8> 학교용지일반회계부담금의 전망 추이 ·························································66
<그림 4-9> 기본운영경비 및 의회비 전망추이 ······························································67
<그림 4-10> 주요 세출 항목의 우호 및 고위 시나리오 전망추이 ································69
<그림 5-1> 일반재원 대비 세출부담률의 시나리오별 추이 ···········································73
<그림 5-2> 일반재원 및 4대 국가복지사업 지출의 실질가치 비교 ·······························74
<그림 5-3> 0~8세 인구의 시나리오별 변화추이 ···························································75
<그림 5-4> 시나리오별 재정수지 추이 ··········································································77
<그림 5-5> 자체수입 5% 감소시 시나리오별 재정수지 추이 ·······································80
<그림 5-6> 복지부담 5% 증가시 시나리오별 재정수지 추이 ·······································82
<그림 5-7> 자체세입 5% 감소 및 복지부담 5% 증가시 시나리오별 재정수지 추이 ····84
